53 min
Dave Ramsey Wrong? | Huge VIX Options Bets | S&P 500 Seasonality | When Does Government Debt Become a Problem? Broken Pie Chart
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- Investing
Derek Moore is back with Jay Pestrichelli this week where they analyze the recent viral video where Dave Ramsey suggests people can safely withdraw 8% forever in retirement. What doesn’t make sense, what is left out, and why the assumptions may be faulty. Then, they discuss the market seasonality and whether this November pop higher already delivered a year end rally? Later Jay and Derek discuss the huge purchase of VIX calls this week and what it did to the VVIX Index as well as an interesting VIX option trade for December. Finally, they touch on Argentina’s plan to dollarize the economy and when the US and other countries high debt to GDP can expect it to be a problem and what is so frustrating to traders making bearish bets against it.
Dave Ramsey viral video saying 8% withdrawal rate on accounts will work forever
How Dave Ramsey makes fun of people arguing for 3%-5% withdrawal rates
The claim of simply investing in mutual funds making 12% annually doesn’t add up
How ignoring the sequence of return risk doesn’t paint a true picture for retirees
Dave Ramsey seems to imply even retirees should be 100% invested in equities
How the sequence of returns only matters to returns when withdrawing or adding money
Simple average annual return vs CAGR compounded annual growth rate
Contrary to Dave Ramsey’s advice not everyone should paying off their mortgage early
What historical seasonality of the S&P 500 Index says about year end performance
One of the largest November month returns on record for S&P 500 Index since 1928
What does Novembers month to date returns mean for seasonality?
Sovereign government debt at historic highs measured as debt to GDP
Argentina new president Javier Milei’s plan to dollarize
Argentina’s history of debt defaults
Discussing the huge VIX call trade that moved the VVIX Index this week
Why people are buying VIX calls
The VIX Index closed at the lowest level since January of 2020
Interesting VIX call breakeven levels for December calls
Mentioned in this Episode:
Total compounded annualized growth rate S&P 500 index by decade https://zegafinancial.com/blog/where-did-the-2010s-rank-for-total-return-on-sandp-500-index
Probability of Recession? | Explaining How US Treasury Bond Auctions Work | S&P 500 Index Member Changes | Option Premium Intrinsic vs. Extrinsic https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/probability-of-recession-explaining-how-us-treasury/id1432836154?i=1000635380296
Stock Market Returns after First Rate Cut https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/stock-market-returns-after-first-rate-cut-yield-curve/id1432836154?i=1000634550774
Option Selling ETFs Boom | Probability of Future Fed Moves | Bad News is Good News on Employment https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/option-selling-etfs-boom-probability-of-future-fed/id1432836154?i=1000633983056
0DTE Options Analysis| Inflation Coming Back? | Strong US Dollar Impact https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/0dte-options-analysis-inflation-coming-back-strong/id1432836154?i=1000628157831
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com
www.zegafinancial.com
Derek Moore is back with Jay Pestrichelli this week where they analyze the recent viral video where Dave Ramsey suggests people can safely withdraw 8% forever in retirement. What doesn’t make sense, what is left out, and why the assumptions may be faulty. Then, they discuss the market seasonality and whether this November pop higher already delivered a year end rally? Later Jay and Derek discuss the huge purchase of VIX calls this week and what it did to the VVIX Index as well as an interesting VIX option trade for December. Finally, they touch on Argentina’s plan to dollarize the economy and when the US and other countries high debt to GDP can expect it to be a problem and what is so frustrating to traders making bearish bets against it.
Dave Ramsey viral video saying 8% withdrawal rate on accounts will work forever
How Dave Ramsey makes fun of people arguing for 3%-5% withdrawal rates
The claim of simply investing in mutual funds making 12% annually doesn’t add up
How ignoring the sequence of return risk doesn’t paint a true picture for retirees
Dave Ramsey seems to imply even retirees should be 100% invested in equities
How the sequence of returns only matters to returns when withdrawing or adding money
Simple average annual return vs CAGR compounded annual growth rate
Contrary to Dave Ramsey’s advice not everyone should paying off their mortgage early
What historical seasonality of the S&P 500 Index says about year end performance
One of the largest November month returns on record for S&P 500 Index since 1928
What does Novembers month to date returns mean for seasonality?
Sovereign government debt at historic highs measured as debt to GDP
Argentina new president Javier Milei’s plan to dollarize
Argentina’s history of debt defaults
Discussing the huge VIX call trade that moved the VVIX Index this week
Why people are buying VIX calls
The VIX Index closed at the lowest level since January of 2020
Interesting VIX call breakeven levels for December calls
Mentioned in this Episode:
Total compounded annualized growth rate S&P 500 index by decade https://zegafinancial.com/blog/where-did-the-2010s-rank-for-total-return-on-sandp-500-index
Probability of Recession? | Explaining How US Treasury Bond Auctions Work | S&P 500 Index Member Changes | Option Premium Intrinsic vs. Extrinsic https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/probability-of-recession-explaining-how-us-treasury/id1432836154?i=1000635380296
Stock Market Returns after First Rate Cut https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/stock-market-returns-after-first-rate-cut-yield-curve/id1432836154?i=1000634550774
Option Selling ETFs Boom | Probability of Future Fed Moves | Bad News is Good News on Employment https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/option-selling-etfs-boom-probability-of-future-fed/id1432836154?i=1000633983056
0DTE Options Analysis| Inflation Coming Back? | Strong US Dollar Impact https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/0dte-options-analysis-inflation-coming-back-strong/id1432836154?i=1000628157831
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com
www.zegafinancial.com
53 min