EA Forum Podcast (All audio)

EA Forum Team
EA Forum Podcast (All audio)

Audio narrations from the Effective Altruism Forum, including curated posts, posts with 30 karma, and other great writing. If you'd like fewer episodes, subscribe to the "EA Forum (Curated & Popular)" podcast instead.

  1. 7小时前

    “Request for Guidance: Reaching Out to Charities Before Publishing Reviews on Them, and Our Concerns” by VettedCauses

    Introduction Vetted Causes writes reviews of charities. Thus far, we have published reviews of two charities. In both cases, we did not reach out to the charities before publishing reviews on them. We did consider doing so for our most recent review, but did not due to concerns which we've described below. We hope that through this post, members of the community can offer solutions that resolve our concerns. Should this happen, we would be more than happy to send reviews to charities before releasing them going forward. Acknowledging The Potential Benefits of Reaching Out to Charities Before Publishing Reviews on Them We would like to start by acknowledging some of the potential benefits of reaching out to charities before publishing reviews on them: Charities could inform us of hidden information that we were not able to access. Charities could inform us of public information [...] --- Outline: (00:08) Introduction (00:44) Acknowledging The Potential Benefits of Reaching Out to Charities Before Publishing Reviews on Them (01:22) Potential Risks of Reaching Out to Charities Before Publishing Reviews About Them (01:43) Risk 1: Charities could alter, conceal, fabricate and/or destroy evidence to cover their tracks. (03:44) Risk 2: Unconscious biases from interacting with charity staff. (04:28) Other Reasons (04:42) Reason 1: Organizations should be held accountable for serious mistakes. (05:58) Reason 2: Organizations should be incentivized to provide sufficient and publicly stated evidence to justify their important publicly stated claims. (07:49) Conclusion --- First published: February 21st, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KnJBoRcWdCmnnmq74/request-for-guidance-reaching-out-to-charities-before --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    8 分钟
  2. 10小时前

    “Published report: Pathways to short TAI timelines” by Zershaaneh Qureshi

    This is a link post. Hi everyone! I have just published a report with Convergence Analysis exploring how transformative AI (TAI) could be developed within the next ten years. It's called Pathways to short TAI timelines (pdf version; Google Doc version). In the report, I examine the debates over compute scaling and recursive improvement as mechanisms for rapid capabilities progress, distill the core elements of these debates under seven distinct scenarios of rapid progress, and ultimately build a case for the plausibility of TAI being developed by 2035. It's a long read, with the pdf version weighing in at 140 pages. So, in this forum post, I provide excerpts which summarise the text at two different levels of granularity: a short summary (~2 min read) and a detailed overview (~15 min read). For those who are interested in reading further, specific sections of the full-length report (Google Doc version) are [...] --- Outline: (01:11) Short summary of the report (~2 min read) (04:07) Detailed overview of the report (~15 min read) (04:13) Background (06:18) Two key mechanisms for fast AI capabilities progress (08:06) Compute scaling (08:52) Short timelines via compute scaling (11:19) Counterarguments to short timelines via compute scaling (15:59) Recursive improvement (17:29) Short timelines via recursive improvement (22:18) Counterarguments to short timelines via recursive improvement (26:09) Seven scenarios with short TAI timelines (33:55) Conclusion (35:11) Acknowledgements The original text contained 14 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. The original text contained 5 images which were described by AI. --- First published: February 20th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Aex6kac5KPbsQ7K3N/published-report-pathways-to-short-tai-timelines --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    39 分钟
  3. 1天前

    “Worrisome Trends for Digital Mind Evaluations” by Derek Shiller

    This is a quick take, not a research report, reflecting the current thoughts and impressions of (some) members of Rethink Priorities' Worldview Investigation Team. We plan to occasionally post views we have (like this one) that we think are important but which we haven't had time to focus on in depth. Evaluating AI systems for morally relevant properties like agency and consciousness is presently quite challenging. AI systems are complex and our understanding of their functioning remains rudimentary. Human and animal brains are, if anything, even less well understood. Coming up with verdicts on the presence of traits like valenced experience or morally-weighty desires involves distilling expert opinion, largely formulated in terms of humans and other animals, and applying the lessons derived to what we know about AI systems. Doing this well requires thought and conceptual nuance, and even in the ideal will leave us with significant uncertainty. [...] --- Outline: (02:06) 1) Increasing secrecy (05:51) 2) Wider exploration (08:10) 3) AI-driven innovation (11:37) Implications --- First published: February 20th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/axHwbeiKA4ScDHik3/worrisome-trends-for-digital-mind-evaluations --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    16 分钟
  4. 1天前

    “Metaculus Q4 AI Benchmarking: Bots Are Closing The Gap” by Molly Hickman

    In Q4 we ran the second tournament in the AI Benchmarking Series which aims to assess how the best bots compare to the best humans on real-world forecasting questions, like those found on Metaculus. Over the quarter we had 44 bots compete for $30,000 on 402 questions with a team of ten Pros serving as a human benchmark on 122 of those 402. We found that: Metaculus Pro Forecasters were better than the top bot “team” (a team of one, this quarter), but not with statistical significance (p = 0.079) using log scoring with a weighted t-test. Top bot performance improved relative to the Pro benchmark to a -8.9 head-to-head score in Q4 2024, compared to a -11.3 head-to-head score in Q3 2024, although this improvement is not statistically significant. (A higher score indicates greater relative accuracy. A score of 0 corresponds to equal accuracy.) These main results [...] --- Outline: (03:55) Selecting a Bot Team (08:17) Comparing the Bots to Pros (12:26) Calibration (14:08) Discrimination (15:45) Comparing Individual Bots to the Pros (16:19) Metaculus Bots (17:56) The best bot: pgodzinai (21:04) Trends in Winners (23:29) Discussion (25:12) Can you make a winning bot? The original text contained 6 images which were described by AI. --- First published: February 19th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/TG2zCDCozMcDLgoJ5/metaculus-q4-ai-benchmarking-bots-are-closing-the-gap --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    26 分钟
  5. 1天前

    “Lead batteries, differential learning, and livelihoods - AIM’s new recommended charity ideas” by Ben Williamson, CE

    Applications are currently open for the next cohort of AIM's Charity Entrepreneurship Incubation Program in August 2025. We've just published our in-depth research reports on the new ideas for charities we're recommending for people to launch through the program. This article provides an introduction to each idea, and a link to the full report. You can learn more about these ideas in our upcoming Q&A with Morgan Fairless, AIM's Director of Research, on February 26th. Advocacy for used lead-acid battery recycling legislation Full report: https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/reports/lead-battery-recycling-advocacy Description Lead-acid batteries are widely used across industries, particularly in the automotive sector. While recycling these batteries is essential because the lead inside them can be recovered and reused, it is also a major source of lead exposure—a significant environmental health hazard. Lead exposure can cause severe cardiovascular and cognitive development issues, among other health problems. The risk is especially [...] --- Outline: (00:39) Advocacy for used lead-acid battery recycling legislation (00:57) Description (02:17) Counterfactual impact (03:03) Potential for success (05:12) Neglectedness (06:15) Additional Considerations (07:30) Scaling up Kangaroo Care (08:50) Potential for success (09:52) Neglectedness (10:12) Additional Considerations (10:47) Differentiated Learning (11:38) Counterfactual impact (12:31) Potential for success (13:44) Additional Considerations (16:50) Mass Communication for Education (17:26) Counterfactual impact (18:38) Potential for success (19:50) Neglectedness (20:28) Additional Considerations (22:02) Establishing a Livelihoods Evaluator (22:38) Counterfactual impact (23:21) Potential for success (25:16) Additional Considerations (28:15) Excited about these ideas? The original text contained 9 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. The original text contained 5 images which were described by AI. --- First published: February 19th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/B7Hrny34hCdf8bcFT/lead-batteries-differential-learning-and-livelihoods-aim-s-1 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    30 分钟

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Audio narrations from the Effective Altruism Forum, including curated posts, posts with 30 karma, and other great writing. If you'd like fewer episodes, subscribe to the "EA Forum (Curated & Popular)" podcast instead.

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