Ecommerce Playbook: Numbers, Struggles & Growth

Common Thread Collective

2020 transformed the world of ecommerce forever. For the modern DTC brand, the rewards have never been greater. But the waters have also never been choppier, and the way forward has never been more uncertain. So how do you navigate this dangerous new reality? No matter how you do it, you’d better not do it alone. That’s where the Ecommerce Playbook Podcast comes in — join Common Thread Collective’s Taylor Holiday & Richard Gaffin as they bring you guiding insights from across CTC’s portfolio of growing DTC businesses. Whether you need a clear view on the macro issues affecting the world of ecommerce, or want to reorient your business around groundbreaking new big-picture strategies, Taylor & Richard are here to help answer the tough questions about what it takes to scale — and sustain — an ecommerce business.

  1. 3일 전

    A Live Demo of How to Forecast Your Q4 Against Tariffs

    In this episode of the Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, Richard Gaffin and Taylor Holiday dive deep into the practical use cases of Spend & aMER forecasting models—powerful tools that help brands set budgets with clarity, not guesswork. Taylor walks through real examples, showing how these models adjust for changing costs (like tariffs) and how gross margin shifts ripple through your entire P&L, media plan, and growth strategy. They also unpack why Black Friday/Cyber Monday cohorts often underperform long-term, and how understanding lifetime value can help you spend smarter, not harder. You’ll learn: • Why changing gross margins completely alter your revenue potential • How to reset budgets when tariffs or duties impact COGS • The surprising long-term weakness of Black Friday customer cohorts • How to model incremental spend and know when every new dollar turns negative • Why forecasting isn’t about prediction—it’s about clarity and action Show Notes: - Ready to stop gambling on unreliable contractors? Check out AllStars. Book Your Strategy Call https://www.hireallstars.com/contacthttps://calendly.com/amzallstars/discovery-call?month=2025-09 - Explore the Prophit System: https://www.prophitsystem.com - The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecomm

    28분

  2. 5일 전

    Why Forecasts are Bottlenecked by Creative Diversity

    In this episode of the Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, Richard Gaffin and Taylor Holiday unpack the critical connection between forecasting models and creative production. Forecasting isn’t just about predicting numbers … it’s about building a marketing and creative plan that can actually deliver them.Taylor explains why most forecasts fail: brands treat them like predictions instead of action plans. The team breaks down how to bridge that gap by tying financial models to the marketing calendar, identifying offer opportunities, and planning campaigns with excess creative capacity so you’re never scrambling when results fall short.You’ll learn:- Why every forecast depends on your creative pipeline- How to identify bottlenecks that kill forecasting accuracy- The role of growth strategists vs. creative strategists in building clarity- Why true diversity in creative comes from multiple production sources, not one overworked designer- How UGC and creator networks unlock scale and resilienceThe conversation closes with a segment featuring Yosh Chavan of Saral, who explains how to build predictable influencer systems that fuel the creative diversity today’s ad ecosystem demands.Show Notes:- Ready to solve your influencer strategy? Book Your Strategy Demo at https://getsaral.com- Explore our Creator Content Packages: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/creative-production- The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecomm

    40분

  3. 5일 전

    The Forecasting Framework Every Brand Needs Before Q4

    In this episode of The Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, Richard Gaffin and Taylor Holiday unpack why forecasting isn’t just about models—it’s about execution. They explore how the best brands combine data, marketing calendars, and disciplined ownership to create forecasts that actually hold up in the real world. Drawing from billions in client data, Taylor explains why finance-driven forecasts often fall short—and how integrating qualitative planning and real-time execution makes all the difference. Together, they lay out the framework that separates accurate, actionable forecasts from guesswork. You’ll learn: • Why finance-only forecasting fails in eCommerce • The three-part framework for accurate forecasting (Quantitative, Qualitative, Execution) • How to tie marketing calendars directly to financial models • Tactical steps to make your forecasts more reliable before Q4 Show Notes: Ready to start texting smarter? Visit ⁠https://www.postscript.io⁠ Explore the Prophit System: ⁠https://www.prophitsystem.com⁠ The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecomm

    26분

  4. 8월 19일

    Why right now is the best time to dial in your spend vs. aMER

    In this episode of The Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, Richard Gaffin and Taylor Holiday break down why so many e-commerce leaders rely on guesswork and ambition instead of reality—and how forecasting models like Spend & aMER can change that.Taylor compares these models to a DEXA scan: a clear, data-driven look at your business health. Together, they explain how accurate forecasting systems help you diagnose overspending or underspending, anticipate seasonal changes, and build a roadmap to profitable growth.You’ll learn: - Why most e-commerce budgets are based on wishful thinking - How Spend & aMER models anchor you in reality - The key forecasting tools (Spend, Retention, Event Effect) every brand needs - How to prepare smarter for Q4 and beyondShow Notes:- Ready to start texting smarter? Visit https://www.postscript.io- Explore the Prophit System: https://www.prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecomm

    28분
  5. How Do I Pitch My Boss on Cost Caps? on DTC Hotline Ep. 2

    8월 15일

    How Do I Pitch My Boss on Cost Caps? on DTC Hotline Ep. 2

    In this week’s episode of The DTC Hotline, Richard Gaffin is joined once again by Tony “The Chopper” Chopp (VP of Paid Media) and Luke “The Weatherman” Austin (VP of eCommerce Strategy) to take real questions from eComm operators and Admission members—no fluff, just clear, hard-earned answers. They tackle: • What to do when “nothing works” on Meta (and why that diagnosis is often wrong) • How to spot the real business problem hiding behind poor ad performance • Why TikTok creative might crush while Meta flops—and how to close the gap • When to expand into secondary channels like Pinterest or Snapchat (and when not to) • The truth about CPMs—and why chasing lower costs can lead you astray • How to pitch cost caps to your boss so they actually say yes • Why profitable scaling means solving business problems, not just account problems This is where your DTC questions get answered in real time. Call or text us: 866-DTC-2263 Interested in Admission? Learn more at https://www.youradmission.co/ Email: podcast@commonthreadco.com Explore the Prophit System: https://prophitsystem.com

    36분

  6. 8월 14일

    Understanding Spend vs. aMER, and Spending Power

    In this episode of the E-Commerce Playbook Podcast, Richard Gaffin is joined by Luke Austin (VP of E-Commerce Strategy at CTC) and Steve Rekuc (Director of Data) to unpack one of CTC’s most powerful forecasting tools: the Spend & aMER Model. This model reveals whether your brand is overspending past the point of profitability—or underspending and leaving growth on the table. By layering in 40+ predictive models, seasonality, and LTV impacts, it provides the clearest roadmap to profitable growth we’ve ever built. You’ll learn: - Why most 8–9 figure brands are shocked when they see their true efficiency curve - How to quantify the real tradeoff between cutting spend and growing top-line revenue - The difference between optimizing for contribution margin today vs. maximizing lifetime margin tomorrow - Why “spending power” is unique to every brand—and how to know yours Get your FREE mystery shopping report from Stord—compare your CX against two competitors: https://stord.link/mystery Explore the Prophit System: https://prophitsystem.com Have a question for the podcast? Email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com

    37분

  7. 8월 12일

    CTC Summit '25: An inside look at CTC’s exact client growth strategy

    Get an exclusive look behind the curtain with our VP of Strategy, Luke, as he breaks down how CTC is transforming profit-driven growth through clarity, measurement, and scalable systems. Discover how our incrementality tool, daily forecasting workflows, and creative growth frameworks come together in the “prism”—our metaphor for the integrated decision-making engine that fuels brand success.In This Episode, You’ll Learn:- How geo‑based incrementality tests are lowering ad spend risk and increasing clarity- Why Meta, Google Brand, and Google Non‑Brand all perform differently—and how we prioritize ad dollars accordingly- How we’ve scaled effective channels like YouTube, TikTok, Snapchat, and Pinterest—thanks to high-confidence data and targeted ad credits- The three core “Units of Growth” we use to influence profitable expansionShow Notes:Ready to solve your influencer strategy? Book Your Strategy Demo at getsaral.comExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecomm

    23분

  8. 8월 8일

    What is the future of eCom? on DTC Hotline Episode 1

    In the debut of The DTC Hotline, Richard Gaffin is joined by Tony “The Chopper” Chopp (VP of Paid Media) and Luke “The Weatherman” Austin (VP of eCommerce Strategy) to take real questions from eComm operators and Admission members—no fluff, just unfiltered answers. They tackle: • Why your Meta cost caps aren’t spending (and what to do about it) • How much creative is really “a lot” in today’s ad environment • The best tools for competitor research and ad spying • What to do when LTV is low and repeat purchases are rare • When to launch a new campaign vs. just adding creatives • Why AI is more valuable for strategy than production • The truth about when (or if) eCommerce is “getting better”Call, text, or listen in—this is where your DTC questions get answered in real time. Interested in Admission? Learn more at https://www.youradmission.co/ Call or text us: 866-DTC-2263 Email: podcast@commonthreadco.com Explore the Prophit System: https://prophitsystem.com

    37분
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2020 transformed the world of ecommerce forever. For the modern DTC brand, the rewards have never been greater. But the waters have also never been choppier, and the way forward has never been more uncertain. So how do you navigate this dangerous new reality? No matter how you do it, you’d better not do it alone. That’s where the Ecommerce Playbook Podcast comes in — join Common Thread Collective’s Taylor Holiday & Richard Gaffin as they bring you guiding insights from across CTC’s portfolio of growing DTC businesses. Whether you need a clear view on the macro issues affecting the world of ecommerce, or want to reorient your business around groundbreaking new big-picture strategies, Taylor & Richard are here to help answer the tough questions about what it takes to scale — and sustain — an ecommerce business.

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