Election Implications (Part 2): This Wall Street Analyst Agrees, “Healthcare is Hard”

With the White House and Congress up for grabs this election, anticipation in the healthcare industry is high. Shifts in healthcare policy will influence how care is paid for and delivered, which will of course influence the flow of investment dollars in both public and private markets.

During the first episode of a four-part series on election implications, beltway insider Julie Barnes laid out potential scenarios for the direction healthcare policy might take depending on election outcomes. With that background, Part 2 of the series zooms in on healthcare investing. 

For more than 20 years – and now six presidential election cycles – Richard Close has covered the healthcare space as a Wall Street analyst. He was one of the first analysts covering healthcare technology and as Managing Director, Digital and Tech-Enabled Health Equity Research at Canaccord Genuity, he focuses on introducing the investment community to disruptive and innovative companies that are leading the digital transformation in healthcare. 

In this episode of Healthcare is Hard, Richard talked to Keith Figlioli about the election and how it could impact investments in the healthcare sector. A few of the topics they discussed include:

• Predictions on priorities. Healthcare has not been a major focus this election cycle and Richard doesn’t believe either candidate has shared many specifics about their plans for health policy. But he discussed general expectations like an increase in Medicare drug price negotiations under a Harris Administration, or giving states more control of Medicaid under a Trump Administration. Regardless of who takes the White House, he sees an increasing focus on addressing employer health costs, driven by forecasts for an 8% increase next year – the highest jump in more than a decade.
• Contrasts in public vs. private markets. Richard says healthcare investors in public markets tend to “paint with a broad brush” and are focused on the short-term. Because of this, he says struggles at large-cap managed care companies in recent years have influenced overall investor sentiment. Once these companies get beyond current challenges and start hitting their numbers, he believes it will open the market and drive improved valuation for smaller and mid-cap companies. On the other hand, Richard says investors in private markets look more deeply into sub-sectors and are placing bets for the long run. 
• Optimism for health tech. With healthcare accounting for 20% of the economy and continuing to grow, Richard sees technology as a primary lever to help bend the cost curve. He’s optimistic about the future opportunity for investors in both public and private markets, and sees an opportunity for the IPO window to potentially open up after the election. He says there are a handful of companies that are profitable and have been growing revenue that may be ready to test the IPO market in 2025.

To hear Richard and Keith discuss these topics and more, listen to this episode of Healthcare is Hard: A Podcast for Insiders.