Power and Flour Podcast

Power and Flour Podcast
  • 5,0 (7)
  • POLITIQUE
  • CHAQUE SEMAINE
Power and Flour Podcast

A podcast by political consultant John Hagner and political scientist Seth Masket. We look at the development and background of the 2024 presidential election, and we also make and discuss pastries. https://powerflour.substack.com/ Audio produced by Eli Masket. Title idea by Julia Azari. powerflour.substack.com

  1. Episode 16: What the hell happened

    21/11/2024

    Episode 16: What the hell happened

    John and Seth sort through the remains of the 2024 presidential election to figure out what kind of campaign effects they can detect in there. They also look at just how good polling was and what kinds of narratives are being drawn from the campaign, and discuss tips for making really good ice cream. Power & Flour will be on hiatus through the month of December, but we will return in 2025 with a whole new season of content! We look forward to chatting again soon. Get full access to Power and Flour Podcast at powerflour.substack.com/subscribe

    34 min
  2. Episode 15: It's all over but the counting... and everything else

    04/11/2024

    Episode 15: It's all over but the counting... and everything else

    This election season started in late 2022, and somehow, a mere 1,000 years later, it’s about to end. John and Seth discuss what to expect in the coming week. What actually will happen once the votes are in? What patterns will we likely see as the ballots are counted? Which states will take a while to count and which will go quickly? How soon will we likely know the winner (possibly days), and how soon will Donald Trump declare himself that winner (almost immediately)? And what role will the Electors play? Plus: Porridge bread! Links: * Nate Cohn: “Can We Trust the Polls?” * FiveThirtyEight: “When Will We Know 2024 Election Results?” * Seth Masket: “Trump will likely declare victory early. Don’t jump to conclusions.” * Oat porridge bread recipe from Tartine Book 3 Power and Flour Podcast is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to Power and Flour Podcast at powerflour.substack.com/subscribe

    31 min
  3. Episode 14: The Ground Game

    24/10/2024

    Episode 14: The Ground Game

    John and Seth look at the Trump and Harris campaigns’ ground games — their efforts to go door-to-door to turn out supportive voters in swing states. They discuss the existing research on just how much ground games matter, and then dig into Harris’ efforts to build on existing Democratic infrastructure, and Trump’s efforts to create something on the fly with millions in Musk Money. John and Seth also discuss their favorite Halloween candies and get into the difficult subject of candy corn. Links: * Seth Masket’s article “Did Obama’s Ground Game Matter?” from Public Opinion Quarterly * Masket/Sides/Vavreck, “The Ground Game in the 2012 Presidential Election” from Political Communication * NY Times piece on the Harris & Trump ground games * Joshua Darr’s “The Incredible Shrinking Democratic Ground Game” at Mischiefs of Faction / Vox * Sasha Issenberg’s book The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns Get full access to Power and Flour Podcast at powerflour.substack.com/subscribe

    30 min

  4. 17/10/2024

    Episode 13: Polls and the Electoral College

    In this episode, John and Seth look at how polling organizations have tried to adjust to some misses in 2016 and 2020, where they understated Trump’s support by 3 to 4 points. Some polling organizations are attempting to weight their current polls by people’s recall of the vote from four years ago, and our hosts get into the pluses and minuses of doing that. John and Seth also look into evidence that the Republicans’ Electoral College advantage may be shrinking in 2020. Finally, they discuss favorite fall baking projects, including apple pie and apple butter. Some items mentioned: * Nate Cohn on Florida polling and the Electoral College * John being interviewed by Chuck Todd about rural polling in 2017 * An apple butter recipe from Sugar Spun Run Get full access to Power and Flour Podcast at powerflour.substack.com/subscribe

    35 min

  5. 11/10/2024

    Episode 12: Early Voting

    In this episode, John and Seth discuss the early vote in 2024. Who has voted so far? What kind of voters tend to vote early and what kind don’t? What are the consequences of an election “day” that lasts more than a month? Can we learn anything in advance by knowing who is voting now? Some links: * Early voting statistics from the University of Florida’s Election Lab. * TargetSmart’s early voting dashboard. * Seth’s piece at FiveThirtyEight on how early voting isn’t very predictive of what’s going to happen in November. * Brian Schaffner and Anthony Rentsch say, actually, early voting is pretty predictive. Here’s a picture from Kanelbullens Dag (Cinnamon Bun Day) in Lund, Sweden: Get full access to Power and Flour Podcast at powerflour.substack.com/subscribe

    33 min

  6. 27/09/2024

    Episode 11: Grading the candidates

    John and Seth talk with DC political consultant Joe Fuld, founder of the Campaign Workshop, to discuss the skills and training of the current presidential and vice presidential candidates. How much does candidate skill actually matter? How well are these candidates doing? Could Kamala Harris have had a more successful rollout? Is Trump campaigning differently from 2016 or 2020? We also pivot to a discussion of pie crust and biscuits, and Joe has thoughts. Links: * Cathead biscuits from Garden & Gun * A pie crust recipe that includes Joe’s secret ingredient * The Campaign Workshop Blog * The How to Win a Campaign podcast * America’s Test Kitchen explains the role of vodka in pie crust Also here’s a peach pie Seth made: Get full access to Power and Flour Podcast at powerflour.substack.com/subscribe

    37 min

  7. 11/09/2024

    Episode 10: Concepts of a Plan

    It’s our quick-turnaround presidential debate special! Seth and John discuss just who undecided voters are and what they saw in this debate (if any of them watched), the differences between prepping male and female candidates for a debate and the expectations they’re held to, whether it helps Trump to go deep into the Fox Cinematic University during debates, and what kind of effects this debate could have on the race. Links: * NYT survey on the one thing Americans remember about the Trump years. * Understanding the bigotry of the immigrants-eating-pets narrative. * A Gelman et al study of swing voters. Below: A cake Seth made with more than enough buttercream frosting to pave over any edge problems. Get full access to Power and Flour Podcast at powerflour.substack.com/subscribe

    36 min

  8. 30/08/2024

    Episode 9: The Democrats in Chicago

    In this episode, Seth and John discuss the level of organization that went into planning a new Democratic National Convention with a few weeks of prep time and the successes and failures Democrats found in its execution. John was at the convention and offers some impressions of the way Democratic speakers, especially Kamala Harris, both did and did not address identity. Also discussed: Seth’s baking adventures in Nashville and the condition of his sourdough starter after a 1,200-mile drive . Get full access to Power and Flour Podcast at powerflour.substack.com/subscribe

    38 min
Tout afficher (16)

Notes et avis

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À propos

A podcast by political consultant John Hagner and political scientist Seth Masket. We look at the development and background of the 2024 presidential election, and we also make and discuss pastries. https://powerflour.substack.com/ Audio produced by Eli Masket. Title idea by Julia Azari. powerflour.substack.com

Informations

  • Création
    Power and Flour Podcast
  • Années d’activité
    2 k
  • Épisodes
    16
  • Classification
    Tous publics
  • Copyright
    © Power and Flour Podcast
  • Site web de l’émission
    Power and Flour Podcast

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