38 min
Episode 163 - Dr. Dean Foreman and June MSR | Does solar create middle class jobs | European aircraft movements rising Energy Week
-
- News
Dr. Dean Foreman and June MSR
https://www.api.org/products-and-services/statistics/apis-economic-industry-outlook
- validating what we’ve seen
- Urban driving activity on the gasoline side + tourism
- Jet fuel demand is up, June is the strongest month so far. 4th straight month of increase for jet fuel. 8% increase from May. Still 1/5 below where it was in 2019. International travel hasn’t picked up yet.
- petrochemicals: medical plastics and packing plastics demand continuing from last year. double digit gains from last year.
- Total demand for distillates has basically peaked, but on growth on a year to year basis its showing strong economic activity and industrial growth. Strong sign of growth.
- Refining picking up, inventories there, ready to be used. Crude oil inventories are edging down. Indication that supply for crude oil isn’t keeping up with demand. We are importing more of what we need. We have an issue looking out over next year. When we consider demand growth with drilling activity even with strong productivity at well level, we need to see more drilling activity than we’ve been seeing to keep up.
- Inventories are at the bottom of the 5 year band. Relatively low. But the upper end of the band was expanded with major inventory builds in 2020.
- Permian doesn’t have pipeline constraints but other basins have pipeline constraints so there may be hesitancy to invest in more production. But they can all be profitable at recent prices.
- Pickup in crude oil exports from US in June. Pull from international demand. Exports will soon be blamed for lifting prices in the US.
- Inflation: Federal reserve needs to look harder at oil and gas and inflation, especially impact on consumers. EIA has assumed that domestic drilling would be and will be stronger than it has been.
- Natural gas outlook: drilling activity low, spot prices for natural gas high, futures curve, would seen like its economic to do dedicated natural gas drilling. There is some pick up in Ohio and Pennsylvania drilling but lack of associated natural gas from fracking.
www.api.org
Building Solar Farms May Not Build the Middle Class
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/16/business/economy/green-energy-jobs-economy.html
- operating solar and wind plants aren’t the same as oil, gas and nuclear plants and don’t require the same type of skilled workers or as many so when plants shut down, workers are losing jobs
European aircraft movements rising: Eurocontrol
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2235622-european-aircraft-movements-rising-eurocontrol
- flights are up to 23,000 compared to 36,000 on the same day in 2019.
Emissions could hit new record by 2023 without more spending on clean energy
https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/renewables/less-than-15-of-covid-19-recovery-spending-went-to-green-energy
- even with more spending on clean energy emissions will rise
Oil firms after slide but COVID-19 and supply concerns remain
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-after-rout-rising-covid-19-cases-opec-supply-deal-2021-07-20/
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com
Dr. Dean Foreman and June MSR
https://www.api.org/products-and-services/statistics/apis-economic-industry-outlook
- validating what we’ve seen
- Urban driving activity on the gasoline side + tourism
- Jet fuel demand is up, June is the strongest month so far. 4th straight month of increase for jet fuel. 8% increase from May. Still 1/5 below where it was in 2019. International travel hasn’t picked up yet.
- petrochemicals: medical plastics and packing plastics demand continuing from last year. double digit gains from last year.
- Total demand for distillates has basically peaked, but on growth on a year to year basis its showing strong economic activity and industrial growth. Strong sign of growth.
- Refining picking up, inventories there, ready to be used. Crude oil inventories are edging down. Indication that supply for crude oil isn’t keeping up with demand. We are importing more of what we need. We have an issue looking out over next year. When we consider demand growth with drilling activity even with strong productivity at well level, we need to see more drilling activity than we’ve been seeing to keep up.
- Inventories are at the bottom of the 5 year band. Relatively low. But the upper end of the band was expanded with major inventory builds in 2020.
- Permian doesn’t have pipeline constraints but other basins have pipeline constraints so there may be hesitancy to invest in more production. But they can all be profitable at recent prices.
- Pickup in crude oil exports from US in June. Pull from international demand. Exports will soon be blamed for lifting prices in the US.
- Inflation: Federal reserve needs to look harder at oil and gas and inflation, especially impact on consumers. EIA has assumed that domestic drilling would be and will be stronger than it has been.
- Natural gas outlook: drilling activity low, spot prices for natural gas high, futures curve, would seen like its economic to do dedicated natural gas drilling. There is some pick up in Ohio and Pennsylvania drilling but lack of associated natural gas from fracking.
www.api.org
Building Solar Farms May Not Build the Middle Class
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/16/business/economy/green-energy-jobs-economy.html
- operating solar and wind plants aren’t the same as oil, gas and nuclear plants and don’t require the same type of skilled workers or as many so when plants shut down, workers are losing jobs
European aircraft movements rising: Eurocontrol
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2235622-european-aircraft-movements-rising-eurocontrol
- flights are up to 23,000 compared to 36,000 on the same day in 2019.
Emissions could hit new record by 2023 without more spending on clean energy
https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/renewables/less-than-15-of-covid-19-recovery-spending-went-to-green-energy
- even with more spending on clean energy emissions will rise
Oil firms after slide but COVID-19 and supply concerns remain
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-after-rout-rising-covid-19-cases-opec-supply-deal-2021-07-20/
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com
38 min