Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore
  • 5.0(19개의 평가)
  • 투자
  • 매주 업데이트
Broken Pie Chart

The Broken Pie Chart Podcast offers fresh looks at investment portfolio management, economics, markets, retirement planning, and more by simplifying and explaining important aspects of financial markets and the economy in easy to understand ways.

  1. 15시간 전

    MicroStrategy Market Cap vs Bitcoin | Valuations Getting Frothy ? | Yields vs Fed Cuts | Second Inflation Surge? | US Dollar Problem | Nvidia Options

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli talk through the latest market action including the forward PE ratio looking frothy, yields continue rising, probability of rate cuts dropping, and when and if the US Dollar strength will be a problem. Plus, talking about Barron’s article comparing the market cap of MicroStrategy vs the value of their Bitcoin holdings. S&P 500 Index earnings yield vs the 10-year Treasury yield. Then, they discuss why people are saying we are going to have a coming second surge for inflation. Later, they talk about volatility on Nvidia a week out from earnings and their options, 90+ days delinquent credit card debt rising, and comparing post-election rallies around close Presidential elections.   MicroStrategy market cap value vs the value of their total Bitcoin holding Post election rallies around close Presidential elections 10-Year Treasury Yields acting different than normal post Fed cutting action US 2-year Treasury yield vs the Fed Funds target rate Probability of interest rate cut in December update US Inflation progress stalled in October? US Dollar Index pushing through resistance When the US Dollar strength matters and when it doesn’t Comparing where we are today with inflation against the 1970s chart S&P 500 Index risk premium (forward earnings yield minus 10-year treasury yield) Percentage of US credit card debt that is delinquent reaches highest level in over a decade S&P 500 Index forward EPS estimates Barron’s article evaluating MicroStrategy’s premium to its Bitcoin holdings     Mentioned in this Episode   Barron’s Article on Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy valuation https://www.barrons.com/articles/microstrategy-stock-price-bitcoin-valuation-702281bd   Explanation of US sugar tariffs and the history of behind them https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/candy-coated-cartel-time-kill-us-sugar-program#an-overview-of-u-s-sugar-policy   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    49분

  2. 11월 11일

    S&P 500 6000 | Bitcoin Strategic Reserve? | Why Bond Yields May Go Higher | Fed Rate Cuts Near All-Time Highs Bullish?

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli decide who got the S&P 500 Index 6000 prediction right. Then they talk about Bitcoin running to new highs and some theories about a Bitcoin strategic reserve now that Trump is the President Elect. Later, they review some data pointing to bond yields remaining high (or going higher). Then discussing how investment banks S&P targets rise to follow the markets. All that plus a listener email.   Small Cap fund flows into IWM TLT ETF bond flows Bitcoin makes new highs and ETF fund flows surge Hussman 12-year forward estimate nonfinancial market cap divided by gross value-added Goldman Sachs 12-month S&P Price Target Markets 12-month forward performance after Fed cuts rates near all-time highs 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. Nominal GDP Growth Trump to stockpile Bitcoin in a strategic reserve? VIX and implied volatility collapse post-election Jay and Derek discuss who correctly called S&P 500 6000 by the end of the year     Mentioned in this Episode   Trump – Stockpile Bitcoin in strategic reserve https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-money/2024/08/05/trumps-latest-crypto-gamble-00172611   Podcast where Jay and Derek predicted S&P 500 6000 back in mid June https://open.spotify.com/episode/5kEdjbbXKuCJ114381jYL8?si=420ed5b0864e4aea   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    59분

  3. 11월 3일

    Unemployment Bad News? | Markets After Elections | Earnings Beats | Trump vs. Harris Election Analysis

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli go through the recent unemployment numbers to see whether it was as bad as reported. Plus, did the recent hurricane throw off the surveys? Then they look at next week’s prediction for interest rates for the Fed Meeting. Derek and Jay pull up the 30-year mortgage rate vs the 10-year treasury and talk about what’s happened since the first Fed cut. Later they look at housing starts vs completions and try to make sense of whether it's bullish or bearish, the market concentration of the top 10 stocks, seasonality in the S&P 500 index, and looking at earnings so far including whether companies are beating and what sectors are doing well. Then stay tuned as Spencer Wright joins Derek to review the data in the upcoming election. Are the polls accurate? How is Trump performing vs Biden and Clinton in previous races? The electoral college states that matter and even a potential election tie. Unemployment disappoints? How the predictions all missed except for Bloomberg survey that was closer Analyzing the jobs data and is it the bad news is good news again scenario ahead of the Fed? Earnings beats and evaluating the EPS and revenue by sector S&P 500 Index seasonality post elections and non-election years Housing starts minus completions and what it means if anything The stock markets current bullish streak Top 10 S&P stocks now 37% of the index US Federal government spending vs. tax revenue 30-year mortgage rates and the 10-year treasury go higher since 1st Fed cut What are fed funds futures predicting for rate cut at next week’s Fed meeting? Is bad weather to blame for low respondent rates to employment surveys? Trump vs. Harris based on the latest polling data Will the polls be accurate this time (correcting polling errors?) Predictions on who will win Comparing Trump’s numbers this year 2024 vs 2020 and 2016 in the swing states Mentioned in this Episode 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map https://www.270towin.com/ BLS October Employment release https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage US Average https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US      US Market Returns by Political Party Historical https://zegafinancial.com/blog/should-investors-be- worried-about-the-election-and-what-to-do-if-you-are Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    1시간 33분

  4. 10월 27일

    Goldman Makes News With 3% S&P Target | Markets Too Concentrated? | What If Mortgage Rates Don’t Fall? | Gold Returns Examined

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli talk about everyone talking about Goldman’s 3% annual return target for next 10 years. What’s behind their analysis includes whether the S&P 500 Index has too much concentration. Then they discuss what is responsible in retrospect for markets going up or down including profit margins, sales, buybacks, dividends, and EPS. Later, they talk about gold and its huge jump in 2024. Finally, how underwhelming the small caps have been relative to past bull markets, S&P 500 Index constituent turnover, and Apple’s options volatility pre-earnings.   Goldman Sachs base case of 3% annualized return next 10 years Vanguard’s June 2024 10 year forward annualized return estimates How market movement is attributed to EPS, Sales, Dividends, Margins, and Buybacks Historical 10-year constituent turnover for S&P 500 Index Touching on Meb Faber’s observation of both Gold and the S&P 500 above 25% return for year Small caps lowest bull market return covering 13 bull markets since 1949 Apple earnings and the option volatility Cost of the Apple straddle a week before earnings Uber’s implied volatility pre-earnings week Spread between the 30-year mortgage and the 10-year treasury yield What if mortgage rates and long bonds go up not down? MBS bonds (mortgage backed securities) nuances     Mentioned in this Episode   Goldman Sachs forward baseline 3% annual return forecast next 10 years full report https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2024/10/18/29e68989-0d2c-4960-bd4b-010a101f711e.pdf   Vanguard June 30th 2024 10 year forward returns forecast https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-return-forecasts.html#:~:text=The%20largest%20shift%20was%20in,Capital%20Markets%20Model%20(VCMM) Mortgage Spreads and The Yield Curve Economic Brief Richmond Federal Reserve Bank https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2023/eb_23-27 Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com         296

    1시간 1분

  5. 10월 21일

    Small Caps Get Their Day | Buffett’s Apple Blunder? | Bull Market Length | Nvidia Cisco Comparison | Netflix Options Volatility

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are discussing what segments of the market are now working on in October plus whether new auto loan delinquencies are something to worry about. Then, reacting to Barron’s headline saying Warren Buffett selling Apple shares may have resulted in leaving $25 billion on the table. Later, they get into whether the comparisons of Nvidia today to Cisco in the late nineties is a fare comparison and if Nvidia is as overvalued as Cisco was in retrospect. Finally, they delve into the options action on Netflix and earnings, S&P 500 Index changes, and whether this bull market is young or really young depending on how you gauge the start of one.   Russell 2000 Index vs S&P 500 Index vs Nasdaq 100 Index performance in October Auto Loan Serious Delinquent by 90 days move up to 2011 highs The age of the bull market and length of previous bull markets When do bull markets begin? CSCO Cisco Systems vs NVDA Nvidia  comparisons Forward PE ratio of Nvidia today vs CSCO in 1999 and 2000 Net profit margins comparing NVDA today to CSCO in late nineties early 2000’s Barron’s article saying Berkshire left $25 billion on the table by selling Apple shares Amentum AMTM joins the S&P 500 Index while BBWI Bath & Body Works exits Netflix option volatility at earnings Would the long or short straddle have worked after earnings on Netflix?     Mentioned in this Episode   Where Markets Go After All-Time Highs by VIX Level | Crazy Earnings Estimates | CPI is Rarely 2% | Latest Interest Rate Probabilities https://open.spotify.com/episode/6U5IIpZmeY3s01GsUS0trt?si=a9a3be7a9a504882   Guggenheim info on Historical cycle trend periods https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/advisor-resources/interactive-tools/dow-jones-historical-trends   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    1시간 6분

  6. 10월 14일

    Where Markets Go After All-Time Highs by VIX Level | Crazy Earnings Estimates | CPI is Rarely 2% | Latest Interest Rate Probabilities

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back again to discuss whether the level of the VIX Index at all-time market highs is a predictor of future market moves. Then, with earnings season kicking off in earnest, reviewing the analyst lofty estimates including some very surprising numbers for Russell 2000 Index companies. Later, Derek goes through some data that basically says the CPI YoY % change isn’t around 2% too often despite the Feds “mandate” of 2% inflation target. Finally, they discuss NFLX earnings and what the options market is saying plus a few other companies including United Healthcare.   The level of the VIX Index at all-time S&P 500 Index highs and the next 60 days, 3&6 months Does where the VIX Index is at all-time market highs really matter? The Fed’s elusive 2% target when looking at monthly data back to January of 2012 How often the year over year (YoY) percent change in CPI is at different levels VIX Index vs bond volatility seen via the MOVE Index Netflix (NFLX) and United Healthcare (UNH) options market pre-earnings check in Implied volatility of options prior to earnings releases Predictions for the November Fed meeting Quarterly earnings estimates for the S&P 500 Index over the next two years are bullish Reviewing the Russell 2000 Index earnings estimates and how lofty they are currently Looking at growth of next 12 months earnings estimates vs the S&P 500 Index itself   Mentioned in this Episode   VIX Too High at All-Time Market Highs? | Employment Surprises | Interest Rate Cut Expectations Drop| No More Port Strike | Technical Analysis on Markets https://open.spotify.com/episode/7uOX1CRDw8T9q1lNpx2lHc?si=2078c3e6fbec4a2c   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    1시간 2분

  7. 10월 6일

    VIX Too High at All-Time Market Highs? | Employment Surprises | Interest Rate Cut Expectations Drop| No More Port Strike | Technical Analysis on Markets

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli ask whether the VIX is too high given markets are at all-time highs and compare today to some previous periods. Then, they delve into the employment report which surprised in a positive way. Was good news good news for once? What this means for probabilities of future rate cuts by the Fed, the port strike that wrapped up, and a look at some individual tickers and markets from a technical analysis standpoint. Resistance, support, wedges and more on this week’s episode.   Why is the VIX so high with the market at all-time highs VIX historically at market all-time highs Looking at 2000 and 2007 VIX at all-time market highs Dissecting the employment report Why good news is bad news for those wanting massive rate cuts Looking at bond yields since the first Fed rate cut The port strike wraps itself up which is good news for markets Technical analysis of the S&P 500 Index, Apple, Nvidia, and more     Mentioned in this Episode   S&P 500 Going to 7000? | NAV Erosion Myth | Fed HAS Cut Rates at All-Time Highs| China & Emerging Markets Surge | Answering Audience Questions https://open.spotify.com/episode/4rcKF9Df3YNHkBrlY2yekg?si=253cf93f379a4111   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    49분

  8. 9월 29일

    S&P 500 Going to 7000? | NAV Erosion Myth | Fed HAS Cut Rates at All-Time Highs| China & Emerging Markets Surge | Answering Audience Questions

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli this week answer some audience questions plus comparing 1995 first Fed rate cut to today’s market and asking if the next year can be a repeat of the 1995-96 period. They also dispel the myth that the Fed has never cut rates when markets are at all-time highs. Later, they look at the China and Emerging markets surge after the Chinese government does a bunch of things to juice markets. In the questions Derek and Jay dispel some myths between NAV erosion and NAV decline. All this and more this week on the Broke Pie Chart Podcast.   Similarities between 1995 and 2024 Fed rates cuts Why longer duration bond yields may go up not down post Fed rate cut Emerging market finally having its day in the sun? China markets go crazy after government stimulus announced. What does NAV (Net Asset Value) or price mean? NAV Erosion vs NAV Decline explained Interest rate changes effect on option prices The least popular option Greek Rho comes into play Fed cuts when markets are at all-time highs Recession or no recession determining next year’s market returns Oil prices, container shipping rates,       Mentioned in this Episode   Fed Goes Big | Market Performance After Rate Cuts | Election Volatility in VIX Futures Is a Crowded Trade | Year End S&P 500 Predictions https://open.spotify.com/episode/3se9kb5ew488TPYKoVohgn?si=FLXDtZz0TgSKo5f1d-aQjg   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    55분
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19개의 평가

소개

The Broken Pie Chart Podcast offers fresh looks at investment portfolio management, economics, markets, retirement planning, and more by simplifying and explaining important aspects of financial markets and the economy in easy to understand ways.

정보

  • 제작진
    Derek Moore
  • 방송 연도
    2018년 - 2024년
  • 에피소드
    299
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    © Copyright Broken Pie Chart Podcast. Can site, link, or share provided podcast website listed and sourced.
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    Broken Pie Chart

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