AI-Generated Audio for Planned Obsolescence Ajeya Cotra, Kelsey Piper
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- Technology
Audio versions of posts at https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/ Read by AI trained on the author's voice. Please excuse any stiltedness -- it's learning!
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Scale, schlep, and systems
This startlingly fast progress in LLMs was driven both by scaling up LLMs and doing schlep to make usable systems out of them. We think scale and schlep will both improve rapidly: planned-obsolescence.org/scale-schlep-and-systems
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Language models surprised us
Most experts were surprised by progress in language models in 2022 and 2023. There may be more surprises ahead, so experts should register their forecasts now about 2024 and 2025: https://planned-obsolescence.org/language-models-surprised-us
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Could AI accelerate economic growth?
Most new technologies don’t accelerate the pace of economic growth. But advanced AI might do this by massively increasing the research effort going into developing new technologies.
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The costs of caution
Both AI fears and AI hopes rest on the belief that it may be possible to build alien minds that can do everything we can do and much more. AI-driven technological progress could save countless lives and make everyone massively healthier and wealthier: https://planned-obsolescence.org/the-costs-of-caution
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Continuous doesn't mean slow
Once a lab trains AI that can fully replace its human employees, it will be able to multiply its workforce 100,000x. If these AIs do AI research, they could develop vastly superhuman systems in under a year: https://planned-obsolescence.org/continuous-doesnt-mean-slow
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AIs accelerating AI research
Researchers could potentially design the next generation of ML models more quickly by delegating some work to existing models, creating a feedback loop of ever-accelerating progress. https://planned-obsolescence.org/ais-accelerating-ai-research