286 episodes

Get the edge with Hidden Forces where media entrepreneur and financial analyst Demetri Kofinas gives you access to the people and ideas that matter, so you can build financial security and always stay ahead of the curve.

Hidden Forces Demetri Kofinas

    • Business
    • 4.8 • 1.3K Ratings

Get the edge with Hidden Forces where media entrepreneur and financial analyst Demetri Kofinas gives you access to the people and ideas that matter, so you can build financial security and always stay ahead of the curve.

    Why Global Liquidity Matters Now More Than Ever | Michael Howell

    Why Global Liquidity Matters Now More Than Ever | Michael Howell

    In Episode 265 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Michael Howell. Michael is the CEO of CrossBorder Capital, a London-based, independent research and investment company that provides asset allocation and capital markets advice to institutional investors.
    This conversation is a natural follow-up to our recent episodes with Lev Menand on the shadow banking system and Eric Basmajian on economic cycles. Specifically, the credit cycle and its leading impact on the economy and asset prices. But this conversation with Michael also pulls directly from other episodes as well with guests like Michael Pettis on global trade and finance, Claudio Borio on financial instability, Brent Johnson on the Revenge of the Dollar, James Aitken on Digital Currency and the Pivot to Asia, Russel Napier on the New Economic Order and the Asian Financial Crisis, and of course, one of my absolute favorites, a conversation with Kevin Coldiron, Tim Lee, and Jamie Lee on the role of the US Dollar as an international funding currency and as the primary driver of recurring systemic crises in the international financial system.
    Global liquidity is a term that every single person working in finance and in financial media has not only heard of but has probably used at one point or another. And yet, if you were to ask most people what this term means or what it refers to they would be hard pressed to give you a clear or uniform answer. This is because the drivers of global liquidity, namely the financial and exchange rate relationships within and between countries and the determinants of cross-border flows of money, securities, goods and services, are constantly changing. In the process, they have become, in the words of Michael Howell, “the new weapons in the escalating Capital Wars between the U.S., Europe, and China,” the last of which has a vested interest in not only the long-term stability of the international financial system but perhaps even the eventual aim of displacing the Dollar in favor of the Yuan as the fulcrum around which international trade and commerce is eventually invoiced and credited
    The goal of today’s conversation is not only to help you gain a deeper appreciation for what global liquidity is and the geopolitical and economic forces driving it but to also help you understand how it impacts you and your portfolio directly through the outsized role that it has on shaping economic outcomes and asset prices. This comes at a time when this very liquidity is receding faster than at any point since the Great Financial Crisis and by some measures, even quicker.
    You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week’s conversation, along with the additional material provided by Michael Howell by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
    If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:
    Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed
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    Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
    Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
    Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io
    Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
    Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas
    Episode Recorded on 08/02/2022

    • 54 min
    How to Prepare for the Next Taiwan Strait Crisis | Dmitri Alperovitch, Elbridge Colby, & Jamil N. Jaffer

    How to Prepare for the Next Taiwan Strait Crisis | Dmitri Alperovitch, Elbridge Colby, & Jamil N. Jaffer

    In Episode 264 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas publishes the contents of a call that he hosted on Twitter Spaces this past Tuesday evening only hours after Nancy Pelosi, the US Speaker of the House of Representatives arrived in Taiwan.
    The subject of the call concerns both the short and long-term consequences of Pelosi’s trip and whether or not the US is ready to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese naval blockade or invasion of the island by the People’s Liberation Army. Speakers Dmitri Alperovitch, Elbridge Colby, and Jamil N. Jaffer discuss how the US can prepare for this eventuality, the urgency of the task at hand, and the possibility and consequences of the US losing a war with China over Taiwan in the next few years.
    If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:
    Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed
    Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify
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    Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
    Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
    Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io
    Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
    Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas
    Episode Recorded on 08/02/2022

    • 1 hr 22 min
    A Recession, More Inflation, or Both? | Eric Basmajian

    A Recession, More Inflation, or Both? | Eric Basmajian

    In Episode 263 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Eric Basmajian. Eric is an economic cycle analyst and the Founder of EPB Macro Research, an economics-based research firm focusing on inflection points in economic growth and the impact on asset prices. His research has been featured across major financial media outlets and he’s been kind enough to provide a sample of his latest cyclical trends monthly update report for premium subscribers to our super nerd tier that you can get through this week’s episode page on our website.
    This conversation is the latest in a series of episodes on markets and investing, with an especially strong focus this time on the macro economy, and in particular, the secular and cyclical trends in the rate of growth and inflation. Secular forces are things like demographics, debt-to-GDP levels, trends in globalization, and the regular and predictable doubling in computing power commonly referred to as Moore’s Law—long-term trends in other words that remain in place through multiple economic cycles. Cyclical trends on the other hand are the 6-18 month fluctuations in growth determined by things like income, production, consumption, and employment. We can anticipate changes in the direction and magnitude of these trends by relying on a variety of what are known as leading as well as coincident economic indicators, things you’ve probably heard of before like building permits, new manufacturing orders, non-farm payrolls, personal consumption, industrial production, etc. Understanding where you are in an economic cycle and what the long-term, secular forces are that are pulling you or pushing you in any particular direction is as important to investors as the weather and the ocean currents are to the navigator of a sailboat. They inform the allocation strategies and performance expectations for a variety of asset classes, business models, and policy choices over time.
    Today’s conversation will expose you to a framework for thinking about the macroeconomy that is empirical, data-oriented, and very much based in reality—one that you can use to forecast major economic inflection points and their resulting impact on asset prices, a valuable tool for anyone trying to manage his or her portfolio or make informed investment decisions.
    You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week’s conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
    If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:
    Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed
    Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify
    Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/
    Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
    Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
    Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io
    Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
    Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas
    Episode Recorded on 07/26/2022

    • 57 min
    Global Macro in an Age of Great Power Conflict | Demetri Kofinas

    Global Macro in an Age of Great Power Conflict | Demetri Kofinas

    In Episode 262 of Hidden Forces, I (Demetri Kofinas) share an interview I recently gave on “The Breakdown” with Nathaniel Whittemore, but not before delivering an important message, which has to do with a new Hidden Forces community tier that we will be launching.
    I’m excited to announce that we will be launching a new Hidden Forces community tier where you'll be able to get immediate access to me, my thoughts, special content, etc., along with private events that will include opportunities to ask questions directly to my guests and to me in real-time. We are giving you a preview of that experience this coming Wednesday, August 3rd, from 6:30 PM — 8 PM EST when I will be hosting a live video Q&A over zoom. Anyone can join and ask me pretty much any question they want so long as it is relevant to the podcast. The zoom call is open to anyone but we are limiting the number of people who can join this time just to keep things manageable. You can secure your spot on the list by going to HiddenForces.io/events and registering right now.
    The title of the event is “Investing Between the Wars,” and while listeners are free to ask any question they like, the focus of the Q&A is on how the changing political and geopolitical landscape is affecting your life and investments. Indeed, this is the subject that Nathaniel Whittemore and I discussed in my recent appearance on “The Breakdown.” I shared some of my own views and perspectives on markets and geopolitics as well as how I’ve incorporated my macro views of the political economy into my own investment decisions.
    The Breakdown is a daily analysis podcast that explores themes in macroeconomics, bitcoin, geopolitics, and the big picture power shifts affecting the world. You can find it on any major podcast platform and at coindesk.com/podcasts and you can follow Nathaniel on Twitter at @NLW.
    You can access the transcript to this week’s conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
    If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:
    Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed
    Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify
    Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/
    Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
    Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
    Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io
    Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
    Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas
    Episode Recorded on 07/18/2022

    • 53 min
    American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict | Elbridge Colby

    American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict | Elbridge Colby

    In Episode 261 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Elbridge Colby, co-founder and principal of The Marathon Initiative, an organization whose mission is to develop the diplomatic, military, and economic strategies that the United States will need to navigate a protracted era of great power competition. Colby has also served as US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development and was the chief architect of the 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS), which was by some estimates the most significant revision of U.S. defense strategy since 9/11, if not since the end of the Cold War.
    This is a conversation about the national security challenges that Elbridge Colby believes we face as a country, their urgency, and what is needed in terms of practical changes to our strategic objectives, the organization of our national defense, what we prioritize, and perhaps most importantly, our sense of mission, unity, and national purpose. Kofinas and Colby spend the first hour laying out the nature and scope of these challenges as they pertain to the Chinese Communist Party in particular, and to the degree that it acts in unison with Chinese objectives, the Russian Federation as well.
    The second hour is broken into two parts, the first of which covers specifics on how to meet the challenge, while the second focuses on Taiwan where Elbridge makes the case for why he believes that an attack on the island nation by China is not only likely but may come much sooner than most pundits and military planners expect. The consequences of such an attack would not only be destabilizing for the current equilibrium in Asia, but could escalate into a global kinetic conflict with hypersonic missiles, space warfare, cyber-attacks, and God forbid, the use of nuclear weapons. Preventing such scenarios from unfolding should be at the very top of our list of national priorities. Today’s conversation is mean to help inform you about just how salient this threat is and what we can and perhaps should do about it.
    You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week’s conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
    If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:
    Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed
    Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify
    Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/
    Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
    Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
    Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io
    Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
    Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas
    Episode Recorded on 07/19/2022

    • 1 hr 2 min
    What’s Driving the Price of Oil? A Supply-Side Story | Rory Johnston

    What’s Driving the Price of Oil? A Supply-Side Story | Rory Johnston

    In Episode 260 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Rory Johnston. Rory is a widely quoted researcher and expert in global commodities markets. His work includes a variety of research and investment projects including his commodity market research platform at Commodity Context Dot Com, as well as both public market portfolio and private equity strategy at Price Street.
    This episode is for premium subscribers only and is part of an ongoing series of conversations that I’ve been curating with guests focused on investment themes and opportunities in the commodities complex. The goal of this conversation is to provide you with a more critical look at the supply side story in oil, refined products like gasoline and diesel, and to a lesser degree natural gas, including drivers of end-use demand for these commodities. The demand-side picture is much more difficult to project, as it requires assumptions about growth, monetary policy, and the further implementation of sanctions on Russian energy supplies. These are subjects we explored in recent episodes with Helen Thompson on Energy Geopolitics and Ian Bremmer on how to fight a geopolitical recession and are featured in the related tab on this week’s episode page on our website.
    Rory and Demetri also discuss some of the financial data compiled by Rory in his most recent Global Oil Data Deck including calendar spreads and speculative positioning in major crude contracts and how we can use that information to help us anticipate the direction of and volatility in oil prices going forward. For premium subscribers to our super nerd tier, Rory has provided you with an abridged version of his data deck for the month of July which publishes in full on his commodity context substack today.
    You can access the full episode and transcript, along with the abridged version of Rory’s Global Oil Data Deck by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
    If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:
    Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed
    Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify
    Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/
    Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
    Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
    Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io
    Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
    Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas
    Episode Recorded on 07/14/2022

    • 47 min

Customer Reviews

4.8 out of 5
1.3K Ratings

1.3K Ratings

Nat S. Maas ,

A Really Great Podcast!

As someone who studied IPE and researched for many years the history of how the West has viewed the East and the world at large as well, I have been looking for exactly this podcast. Dimitri is the perfect and well versed host to facilitate Economic and Political conversations that go deeper and beyond the content offered by most podcasts of the like. Spot on and informative, check it out for sure.

Pat O'Donnell ,

Excellent Show

Kofinas has interesting, informative guests, and he interview in a very conversational style, allowing guests to make their points in their own ways. But he also offers his own informative views and challenges guests, which helps draw them out. This is a must-listen for investors or those interested in government and foreign affairs.

Taqueria Aqui ,

great guests

thanks for sharing these fascinating conversations on youtube as well

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