Israel and Iran Tensions: Calculating Risk Amid Conflict

Since October 1st, tensions between Israel and Iran have reached new heights. In recent weeks, we’ve seen significant Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and a weakening of Iran’s proxy network. At the same time, Israel is stretched across multiple active fronts, challenging its traditional military doctrine of short, decisive wars and increasing its reliance on U.S. resupply. With Iran reeling from the damage and Israel adopting a bold defensive posture, the coming weeks are set to be critical.

As the balance of power shifts, the risk of a broader conflict grows. How might Israel respond to direct Iranian retaliation, and what could this mean for its approach to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure? Could the conflict evolve into a war of attrition, or will Israel use its momentum to push for decisive action? To explore these questions, David Makovsky is joined by two experts: Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace specializing in Iran and U.S. policy in the Middle East, and Assaf Orion, the Liz and Mony Rueven International Fellow at The Washington Institute and a retired Israeli brigadier general and defense strategist.

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