Justifying External Support for Regime Change in Venezuela

Venezuela has suffered through two decades of incompetent, corrupt, and authoritarian socialist rule, first under Hugo Chávez and, since 2013, under Nicolás Maduro. Seeking to restore democracy and prosperity, two weeks ago Juan Guaidó, the president of the Venezuelan National Assembly, declared himself the country’s acting president pending new elections. Guaidó argues that Maduro’s victory in a rigged and illegitimate election left the presidency vacant and that under such circumstances the constitution vests power in the National Assembly’s leader.The US and some of the world’s other constitutional democracies now recognize Guaidó’s authority, even as countries such as China and Russia are standing by Maduro. Given the risk of domestic unrest, civil war, and even great-power conflict reminiscent of the Cuban missile crisis, the stakes in Venezuela are enormous. One can only hope that the Trump administration coordinates any further words and deeds regarding Venezuela with the sober leaders of allied nations.Meanwhile, the global response to Guaidó’s declaration raises a question of justification. Many countries suffer under incompetent, corrupt, and authoritarian rulers. Given that the international community does not generally seek their ouster, what makes Maduro different?Pragmatic LimitsIn asking that question, I do not mean to engage in “whataboutism,” a practice by which one deflects even extremely serious charges by making similar charges about others. The adage two (or more) wrongs don’t make a right often suffices to rebut whataboutism.That said, one can ask in good faith why the US and other constitutional democracies should support displacing Maduro but not, say, the Saudi royal family or Kim Jong-un.Part of the answer is practical. Admittedly, the Trump administration’s eagerness to ignore the apparent role played by Saudi crown prince Mohammad Bin Salman in the murder of US permanent resident Jamal Khashoggi is shameful. But even a tougher line—pressing the Saudis for a change in the line of royal succession, for example—would leave in place an autocratic and unelected regime. Why not withdraw recognition of the legitimacy of the whole Saudi monarchy?Realpolitik provides the best explanation. In light of the Syrian civil war, the counter-revolution in Egypt, and the destabilization of Libya, foreign policy makers will be understandably cautious before repeating the enthusiasm for democratic reform that greeted the Arab Spring in 2011.Likewise, it would be folly to seek Kim’s overthrow, given that his regime possesses nuclear weapons and that millions of South Koreans live within the North’s conventional artillery range. We can say, on the one hand, that ideally all people should live under liberal democratic regimes, while recognizing, on the other hand, that the sorts of measures any outside forces might take to try to transform authoritarian regimes into liberal democratic ones would likely fail and end up doing more harm than good.Truth in Advertising and Sham ConstitutionsMight there be further reasons to distinguish Maduro from other authoritarians? Perhaps one might argue that neither Saudi Arabia nor North Korea holds itself out as democratic, whereas Venezuela does. In this view, when the US and other outside actors recognize Guaidó rather than Maduro, they are not imposing external values on Venezuelans; rather, they are saying that under Venezuela’s own constitutional principles, Maduro lacks legitimacy. By denying Maduro’s legitimacy, the democratic world would be applying a principle of truth in advertising.Yet to draw that line we need to take account of the