In this episode, we sit down with Bob Elliott for a wide-ranging conversation about the late-cycle economic backdrop, the Fed’s dilemma, AI’s real economic impact, the cracks forming beneath the surface of private credit and private markets, and the growth of hedge-fund-style strategies inside ETFs. Bob walks through what he is seeing in the labor market, inflation, tariffs, and risk assets, and then breaks down how Unlimited is building replication-based ETF strategies to capture hedge fund returns at low cost. Topics covered: • The late-cycle economy and the disconnect between markets and weakening real-world data • Why labor markets look softer than headlines suggest • How tariffs are affecting inflation, growth, and consumer spending • The Fed’s policy bind and why reasonable cases exist for both cutting and holding • The slowdown in household income growth and the idea of a “slow-cession” • AI spending, productivity claims, and why the economic benefits are not yet showing up • The self-referential nature of Big Tech AI spending and poor return on AI CapEx • Why real-economy companies may not see meaningful profit uplift from AI • The private credit and private equity concerns Bob sees building • Hidden risks and information asymmetry in private-market products • New hedge-fund-style ETF strategies built using replication technology • Equity long-short, global macro, and managed futures as standalone ETF exposures • Why fee reduction is the most durable source of hedge-fund alpha • How advisors are shifting from 60/40 toward 50/30/20 allocations with alternatives Timestamps: 00:00 Macro conditions and weakening labor market 02:00 Disconnect between markets and the real economy 04:00 Working without government data during the shutdown 06:00 Inflation trends and tariff impacts 10:00 Fed policy, cuts, and late-cycle dynamics 12:30 Income-driven vs debt-driven cycles 15:00 Slow-cession and household spending power 18:30 Fed uncertainty and prediction challenges 21:00 Why the Fed paused quantitative tightening 25:00 Liquidity, reserves, and bank system mechanics 28:00 Equity markets, expectations, and AI mania 31:00 AI spending, productivity doubts, and return on investment 37:00 Business models, layoffs, and macro implications 40:00 Private credit, private equity, and hidden risks 45:00 How some private-market ETFs may disadvantage retail investors 47:00 New Unlimited ETF strategies and how replication works 52:00 Equity long-short, macro, and managed futures inside an ETF 55:00 Late-cycle benefits of tactical positioning 57:00 Future strategies and expanding the replication lineup 59:00 Fee advantages and democratizing hedge-fund-style returns
