Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore
  • 5.0(19개의 평가)
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Broken Pie Chart

The Broken Pie Chart Podcast offers fresh looks at investment portfolio management, economics, markets, retirement planning, and more by simplifying and explaining important aspects of financial markets and the economy in easy to understand ways.

  1. 2일 전

    Tariffs | Market Fragility | Mortgage Rate Spread to Treasuries | Analysts Estimates Are Pretty Accurate

    Derek Moore previews Palantir, Amazon, and Google earnings implied volatility expectations based on the option market. Plus, how currency movements may or may not mute new tariffs. Later, Derek answers a listener question on why mortgage rates (and bonds) have a spread between their rate and the 10 Year Treasury yield. Plus, digging into new data that shows analysts producing earnings estimates on the S&P 500 Index are pretty accurate as it turns out. Finally, what is market fragility and are we in a fragility period right now?   What is market fragility? Analyst estimates vs actuals show analysts might know what they are doing 30-year mortgage rates vs the 10-year treasury Why is there a spread above treasuries What is reinvestment risk on mortgage bonds? Tariffs impact on markets How currency moves on the Canadian Dollar, Mexican Peso, and Chinese Yuan may blunt tariffs Will tariffs cause more onshoring and manufacturing in the US? Sentiment was tariffs would be used as a threat, then they’ll be short lived, so now what?   Mentioned in this Episode   Analysts are pretty good at predicting earnings from Sam Ro https://www.tker.co/p/analysts-earnings-estimates-accuracy   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    43분

  2. 1월 27일

    Downside Protection is for Suckers? | Big Earnings Week | Percent of Time in Recessions | Bacon Egg & Cheese Inflation Index | Implied Volatility & Earnings

    Derek Moore previews Apple, Tesla, and Microsoft earnings by looking at the implied moves around earning by the options market. Plus, Bloomberg comes out with a new inflation gauge called The Bacon Egg & Cheese Sandwich index. Later, Derek talks about a new study which shows the percentage of time in recessions by decades. Oh, and reacting to a headline “hedging is for suckers” and why it’s wrong.   Zero Hedge article headline “Downside Protection is for Suckers” reaction Percent of time in recessions Bacon Egg & Cheese Inflation Index from Bloomberg Implied volatility on major companies reporting earnings TSLA, MSFT, and AAPL How to easily calculate the options market implied 1-day 1-standard deviation move Why implied volatility moves higher pre-earnings Cost of a options Straddle trade around earnings Risks of a straddle trade both buying and selling the straddle     Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    39분

  3. 1월 20일

    Bitcoin Can’t Be This Easy? | S&P 500 Concentration Doesn’t Matter | Company Additions to S&P Performance | Implied Volatility Options Netflix Pre-Earnings

    Derek Moore is joined by guest co-host Mike Puck to talk markets including how people seem to think making money in Bitcoin is too easy and what that means. Plus, why the S&P 500 Index concentration may not be as big of a deal when looking at how the index changes. Comparing the top 10 market weighted stocks in 1997 to today. Later they discuss value vs growth performance, the dollar index, interest rates, and look at the implied volatility of Netflix options before earnings. Finally, they talk about how what seems obvious to all the CNBC talking head guests may not be the case.   Concentration in the top stocks within the S&P 500 Index Comparing the top weighted companies today vs 1997 in the S&P 500 Index How today its all tech vs 30 years ago Why owning the S&P 500 Index is more active than you think Additions to the S&P 500 Index in 2024 and their performance Implied volatility in Netflix options pre-earnings Calculating the implied move around earnings based on implied volatility Looking at the ATM long straddle before earnings including the risk Dollar index and EPS in the S&P correlation Bitcoin believers are starting to think its too easy to make money Bitcoin maximalists have been rewarded, and Derek is still a skeptic Value vs Growth and why Value is a tough sell to money managers   Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    56분

  4. 1월 13일

    It Matters When It Matters | Employment Too Good? | Interest Rate Problem? | Dollar Problem? | Earnings Still Good? | AI The 6th Great Innovation?

    Derek Moore is joined by guest co-host Spencer Wright to discuss the surge in bond yields, the surge in the US Dollar Index, and whether those two things might cause some near-term pain for equity markets. Plus, discussing whether AI Artificial Intelligence is a true next technological revolution and what it means for earnings. Then they talk semiconductors as the picks and shovels of AI and do some technical analysis reviewing the patterns in the S&P 500 Index, the Nasdaq 100, Semiconductors and bond yields. Oh, and there was the unemployment report that markets didn’t like in the moment as it was “too good” because does it mean the Fed is done cutting? All this and more this week!   Bond interest rates surge as 10-year treasury hits 4.7% UK Gilt Bonds surge to a higher rate than when the government had to step in Unemployment surprises at 4.1% but market reacts negatively Fed rate cuts not priced in until October 29th meeting and 1 cut at that AI Artificial Intelligence – is it the 6th great sea change revolution? Semiconductors as the picks and shovels of AI Technical analysis triangle patters Technical analysis on NDX, SPX, and Semiconductors The trade weighted dollar index and impact to earnings due to currency exchange Are high rates bad or just the journey to get there first? Technical analysis book recommendations   Mentioned in this Episode   Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns by Thomas N. Bulkowski https://amzn.to/4gVExnm   Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital by Carlota Perez https://amzn.to/3Wefgwd   Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John Murphy https://amzn.to/3Wefgwd   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    1시간 2분

  5. 1월 6일

    Market Pullbacks Data | Yields Keep Rising? | Forward EPS vs PE Ratio | MicroStrategy Implied Volatility | 1 Fed Cut in 2025?

    Derek Moore talks about the level of implied volatility in MicroStrategy and its performance relative to bitcoin. Plus, looking at how much future fed cut expectations have fallen for 2025. Later, Derek explains what drives returns looking at the forward p/e ratio vs forward analyst eps estimates for the S&P 500 Index, 2/10s US Treasury spread widening as yields rise, are 10 Year Treasury yields about to break out, and quietly crude oil has been rising. What would that mean for CPI and inflation navigation for the Fed?    Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy Calculating implied 1 standard deviation moves based on options data MicroStrategy implied volatility S&P 500 Index analyst forward 1 year EPS estimates Forward PE ration level and whether it is a predictor of markets 1 and 5 years in the future Mag 7 net profit margins, earnings growth, and pe ratio vs the rest of the S&P 500 Index Looking at max pullbacks for each calendar year and subsequent year end returns S&P 500 Cup and Handle pattern in the 10-Year Treasury yield Fed Funds futures pricing and probabilities for future rate cuts in 2025 by the Fed How markets move based on multiple expansion/contraction and earnings estimates WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil prices making a move? Oil as a part of the CPI inflation numbers   Mentioned in this Episode   JP Morgan Guide to the Markets https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    44분

  6. 2024. 12. 30.

    2025 Predictions | Un-Inverted Curve | China Deflation Tariff Solution?| Bitcoin Quantum Problem?

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli round out the year with some 2025 predictions on markets, rates, bonds, oil, bitcoin, the dollar, GDP, inflation, and gold. Plus, does Bitcoin have a Quantum Computing problem? What’s going on with deflation in China and is it the answer to potential tariffs? And news flash, the inverted yield curve is no more as the 10-year treasury yield rises above the 3-month treasury yield. All this and more!   2025 Predictions China Deflation including 10-year Chinese Government Bond yields falling China currency valuation, bond yields, and deflation a recipe to nullify US tariffs? Quantum computer by Google and can it mine Bitcoin? Will Quantum computers put Bitcoin wallets at risk? (part of our random predictions) The reversion or un-inversion of the 10 year and the 3-month treasury The inverted yield curve was the longest ever and didn’t cause a recession Will the un-inverted yield curve now cause a recession? VIX Index vs VIX futures spread Additions and subtractions to the S&P 500 Index Commodities including coffee, rubber, and cocoa rise Earnings season soon upon us   Mentioned in this Episode     Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    1시간 1분

  7. 2024. 12. 23.

    VIX Spikes as Market Has Tantrum | Fed Hawkish Cut| Inflation Not Getting to 2% | Dollar Index Breaks Out

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli react to the Fed meeting where people are calling it a hawkish cut and a reset of future expectations of where interest rates end up. Plus, the Dot Plots say long run PCE Inflation will only go to 3% not 2%. Later looking at the Trade Weighted Dollar Index breakout and if it will become a problem for earnings growth in 2025. Of course, the big news last week was the spike in the VIX as the market had a temper tantrum. Finally, they go into earnings expectation, price to forward sales ratio, real retail sales, and more and even a wacky (or not) Amazon prediction.   Fed Hawkish Rate cut Fed PCE Inflation Dot Plot 3% long run target The Fed Pivot or Fed Reset in effect? The VIX Spikes as the market has a tantrum after Powell press conference Looking at current forward pe ratio for the S&P 500 Index now Earnings expectations and the strong US Dollar The US Dollar breaks out above resistance Forward Price to Sales ratio getting elevated? Goods vs services inflation PPI services is still elevated Would Amazon ever break out its business units to take advantage of AI and their chip? Greenspan fed vs Powell 1994 bull market vs this bull market and does it mean longer to run?   Mentioned in this Episode     Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    1시간 3분

  8. 2024. 12. 16.

    S&P 500 7000 By Year End 2025? | Multiples vs Earnings Growth | Inflation Still Too High? | Probabilities Calculated Using Options | Fair Share on Taxes?

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli gather once again to discuss whether inflation is too high for the Fed to aggressively cut rates more. Then, they talk about the probability of the S&P 500 closing or getting to 7000 by year end 2025. Plus, is inflation still too high looking at Core CPI and CPI Supercore for the fed to cut rates as much as projected. Later, they go into some myths on the US debt and foreign ownership of treasuries, US Dollar Index against some resistance levels, what does paying your fair share in taxes mean, and more.   How probabilities are calculated based on option prices Current probability of the S&P 500 Index hitting 7000 by year end 2025 Difference between probability of touching and probability of expiring in the money Looking at the current forward PE ratio and multiple for the S&P Calculating theoretical year end 2025 S&P price at different earnings and multiples Is the PE multiple too high? US Dollar moves higher but coming up against resistance? Looking at who owns the $34 Trillion US Debt Percentage of foreign countries who own treasuries Many people think China owns more treasuries than it currently does How much does the Fed own of outstanding US debt? What does paying your fair share in taxes mean? Income comparisons when including government transfer payments (benefits) and taxes Data from New York City points to a small number of people paying most of the taxes CPI Supercore CPI Core and the Fed targets Shelter inflation How big of a company would SpaceX be if it went public? Broadcom hits $1 Trillion in market cap today   Mentioned in this Episode   CBO report on Distribution of Household Income https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56575   NYC Department of Taxation https://www.tax.ny.gov/data/stats/taxfacts/personal-income-tax.htm   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    50분
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19개의 평가

소개

The Broken Pie Chart Podcast offers fresh looks at investment portfolio management, economics, markets, retirement planning, and more by simplifying and explaining important aspects of financial markets and the economy in easy to understand ways.

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  • 제작진
    Derek Moore
  • 방송 연도
    2018년 - 2025년
  • 에피소드
    310
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    © Copyright Broken Pie Chart Podcast. Can site, link, or share provided podcast website listed and sourced.
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