Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore
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Broken Pie Chart

The Broken Pie Chart Podcast offers fresh looks at investment portfolio management, economics, markets, retirement planning, and more by simplifying and explaining important aspects of financial markets and the economy in easy to understand ways.

  1. 7 小時前

    Goldman Makes News With 3% S&P Target | Markets Too Concentrated? | What If Mortgage Rates Don’t Fall? | Gold Returns Examined

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli talk about everyone talking about Goldman’s 3% annual return target for next 10 years. What’s behind their analysis includes whether the S&P 500 Index has too much concentration. Then they discuss what is responsible in retrospect for markets going up or down including profit margins, sales, buybacks, dividends, and EPS. Later, they talk about gold and its huge jump in 2024. Finally, how underwhelming the small caps have been relative to past bull markets, S&P 500 Index constituent turnover, and Apple’s options volatility pre-earnings.   Goldman Sachs base case of 3% annualized return next 10 years Vanguard’s June 2024 10 year forward annualized return estimates How market movement is attributed to EPS, Sales, Dividends, Margins, and Buybacks Historical 10-year constituent turnover for S&P 500 Index Touching on Meb Faber’s observation of both Gold and the S&P 500 above 25% return for year Small caps lowest bull market return covering 13 bull markets since 1949 Apple earnings and the option volatility Cost of the Apple straddle a week before earnings Uber’s implied volatility pre-earnings week Spread between the 30-year mortgage and the 10-year treasury yield What if mortgage rates and long bonds go up not down? MBS bonds (mortgage backed securities) nuances     Mentioned in this Episode   Goldman Sachs forward baseline 3% annual return forecast next 10 years full report https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2024/10/18/29e68989-0d2c-4960-bd4b-010a101f711e.pdf   Vanguard June 30th 2024 10 year forward returns forecast https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-return-forecasts.html#:~:text=The%20largest%20shift%20was%20in,Capital%20Markets%20Model%20(VCMM) Mortgage Spreads and The Yield Curve Economic Brief Richmond Federal Reserve Bank https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2023/eb_23-27 Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com         296

    1 小時 1 分鐘

  2. 6 天前

    Small Caps Get Their Day | Buffett’s Apple Blunder? | Bull Market Length | Nvidia Cisco Comparison | Netflix Options Volatility

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are discussing what segments of the market are now working on in October plus whether new auto loan delinquencies are something to worry about. Then, reacting to Barron’s headline saying Warren Buffett selling Apple shares may have resulted in leaving $25 billion on the table. Later, they get into whether the comparisons of Nvidia today to Cisco in the late nineties is a fare comparison and if Nvidia is as overvalued as Cisco was in retrospect. Finally, they delve into the options action on Netflix and earnings, S&P 500 Index changes, and whether this bull market is young or really young depending on how you gauge the start of one.   Russell 2000 Index vs S&P 500 Index vs Nasdaq 100 Index performance in October Auto Loan Serious Delinquent by 90 days move up to 2011 highs The age of the bull market and length of previous bull markets When do bull markets begin? CSCO Cisco Systems vs NVDA Nvidia  comparisons Forward PE ratio of Nvidia today vs CSCO in 1999 and 2000 Net profit margins comparing NVDA today to CSCO in late nineties early 2000’s Barron’s article saying Berkshire left $25 billion on the table by selling Apple shares Amentum AMTM joins the S&P 500 Index while BBWI Bath & Body Works exits Netflix option volatility at earnings Would the long or short straddle have worked after earnings on Netflix?     Mentioned in this Episode   Where Markets Go After All-Time Highs by VIX Level | Crazy Earnings Estimates | CPI is Rarely 2% | Latest Interest Rate Probabilities https://open.spotify.com/episode/6U5IIpZmeY3s01GsUS0trt?si=a9a3be7a9a504882   Guggenheim info on Historical cycle trend periods https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/advisor-resources/interactive-tools/dow-jones-historical-trends   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    1 小時 6 分鐘

  3. 10月14日

    Where Markets Go After All-Time Highs by VIX Level | Crazy Earnings Estimates | CPI is Rarely 2% | Latest Interest Rate Probabilities

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back again to discuss whether the level of the VIX Index at all-time market highs is a predictor of future market moves. Then, with earnings season kicking off in earnest, reviewing the analyst lofty estimates including some very surprising numbers for Russell 2000 Index companies. Later, Derek goes through some data that basically says the CPI YoY % change isn’t around 2% too often despite the Feds “mandate” of 2% inflation target. Finally, they discuss NFLX earnings and what the options market is saying plus a few other companies including United Healthcare.   The level of the VIX Index at all-time S&P 500 Index highs and the next 60 days, 3&6 months Does where the VIX Index is at all-time market highs really matter? The Fed’s elusive 2% target when looking at monthly data back to January of 2012 How often the year over year (YoY) percent change in CPI is at different levels VIX Index vs bond volatility seen via the MOVE Index Netflix (NFLX) and United Healthcare (UNH) options market pre-earnings check in Implied volatility of options prior to earnings releases Predictions for the November Fed meeting Quarterly earnings estimates for the S&P 500 Index over the next two years are bullish Reviewing the Russell 2000 Index earnings estimates and how lofty they are currently Looking at growth of next 12 months earnings estimates vs the S&P 500 Index itself   Mentioned in this Episode   VIX Too High at All-Time Market Highs? | Employment Surprises | Interest Rate Cut Expectations Drop| No More Port Strike | Technical Analysis on Markets https://open.spotify.com/episode/7uOX1CRDw8T9q1lNpx2lHc?si=2078c3e6fbec4a2c   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    1 小時 2 分鐘

  4. 10月6日

    VIX Too High at All-Time Market Highs? | Employment Surprises | Interest Rate Cut Expectations Drop| No More Port Strike | Technical Analysis on Markets

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli ask whether the VIX is too high given markets are at all-time highs and compare today to some previous periods. Then, they delve into the employment report which surprised in a positive way. Was good news good news for once? What this means for probabilities of future rate cuts by the Fed, the port strike that wrapped up, and a look at some individual tickers and markets from a technical analysis standpoint. Resistance, support, wedges and more on this week’s episode.   Why is the VIX so high with the market at all-time highs VIX historically at market all-time highs Looking at 2000 and 2007 VIX at all-time market highs Dissecting the employment report Why good news is bad news for those wanting massive rate cuts Looking at bond yields since the first Fed rate cut The port strike wraps itself up which is good news for markets Technical analysis of the S&P 500 Index, Apple, Nvidia, and more     Mentioned in this Episode   S&P 500 Going to 7000? | NAV Erosion Myth | Fed HAS Cut Rates at All-Time Highs| China & Emerging Markets Surge | Answering Audience Questions https://open.spotify.com/episode/4rcKF9Df3YNHkBrlY2yekg?si=253cf93f379a4111   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    49 分鐘

  5. 9月29日

    S&P 500 Going to 7000? | NAV Erosion Myth | Fed HAS Cut Rates at All-Time Highs| China & Emerging Markets Surge | Answering Audience Questions

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli this week answer some audience questions plus comparing 1995 first Fed rate cut to today’s market and asking if the next year can be a repeat of the 1995-96 period. They also dispel the myth that the Fed has never cut rates when markets are at all-time highs. Later, they look at the China and Emerging markets surge after the Chinese government does a bunch of things to juice markets. In the questions Derek and Jay dispel some myths between NAV erosion and NAV decline. All this and more this week on the Broke Pie Chart Podcast.   Similarities between 1995 and 2024 Fed rates cuts Why longer duration bond yields may go up not down post Fed rate cut Emerging market finally having its day in the sun? China markets go crazy after government stimulus announced. What does NAV (Net Asset Value) or price mean? NAV Erosion vs NAV Decline explained Interest rate changes effect on option prices The least popular option Greek Rho comes into play Fed cuts when markets are at all-time highs Recession or no recession determining next year’s market returns Oil prices, container shipping rates,       Mentioned in this Episode   Fed Goes Big | Market Performance After Rate Cuts | Election Volatility in VIX Futures Is a Crowded Trade | Year End S&P 500 Predictions https://open.spotify.com/episode/3se9kb5ew488TPYKoVohgn?si=FLXDtZz0TgSKo5f1d-aQjg   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    55 分鐘

  6. 9月22日

    Fed Goes Big | Market Performance After Rate Cuts | Election Volatility in VIX Futures Is a Crowded Trade | Year End S&P 500 Predictions

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back to do a post Fed 50 basis point cut analysis. What typically happens a year later in markets after the first interest rate cut? Maybe there isn’t election volatility priced into the VIX and it’s all to do with interest rates. Plus, looking back at the S&P 500 year end 2024 predictions top investment banks made in December of 2023. Hint, it didn’t go the way they expected. How many new all-time highs have we had this year and how does that compare with past years?   More all-time highs All-time highs by month Will the market go to 6000? Jay Powell goes big but what does it mean for markets? Contrarian corner TIPS Bond ETFs and Gold VIX Futures over the next couple months     Mentioned in this Episode   Fed Decision Primer | CPI Disappoints? | Market Breakout or Breakdown? | Too Many Cuts Priced In? https://open.spotify.com/episode/6eFhqLyirKKiHKl7yYVDNV?si=08e63f4f058a4d44   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com   www.zegafinancial.com

    51 分鐘

  7. 9月15日

    Fed Decision Primer | CPI Disappoints? | Market Breakout or Breakdown? | Market Pricing in Too Many Cuts?

    Derek Moore covers what you need to know going into the fed meeting. Plus, reviewing whether the Fed has ever cut rates with a forward price to earnings ratios this high? Then looking at potential technical analysis outcomes on the S&P 500 Index include a cup with handle, triple top, and more.   Historical Forward PE ratios at Fed cuts VIX Index doesn’t go berserk during Wednesday’s CPI selloff and recovery Is the market pricing in too many future fed cuts Comparing CPI Supercore, CPI Core, and CPI from a month over month annualized basis Does CPI tell us anything about future Fed cuts? What is a cup and handle technical pattern? What is a triple top technical pattern?     Mentioned in this Episode   Will There or Won’t There Be a Recession? | Size of First Fed Rate Cut?| Stocks Get Cheaper | Why VIX is Tough to Trade https://open.spotify.com/episode/2PzBKek4qM4HfJQGodsxea?si=9vkdi40ETayaVFPiUlHMOQ   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com   www.zegafinancial.com

    37 分鐘

  8. 9月9日

    Will There or Won’t There Be a Recession? | Size of First Fed Rate Cut?| Stocks Get Cheaper | Why VIX is Tough to Trade

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back to talk employment, Fed cuts, recession (or not), forward earnings multiples, VIX, VVIX, crude oil recession sign, currencies, and more!   Looking at 3 2024 stock market selloffs this year Crude oil as a recession indicator? Currencies and Commodities driving stocks right now? Why markets may be trading on technical VIX and VVIX goings on Why VIX is tough to trade S&P 500 Index forward earnings and multiples First rate cut isn’t always the biggest Response rates of employment surveys Non-farm payrolls Unemployment report breakdown and factors US Dollar Japanese Yen pair resumes Yen strengthening     Mentioned in this Episode   All the News is Out? | Nvidia Earnings Breakdown | Implied Volatility and Earnings for Nvidia | Is the long bond trade getting crowded? https://open.spotify.com/episode/2LsHNmpPGY3jKpfS9WnjVt?si=21de3281be394249   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com   www.zegafinancial.com

    1 小時 11 分鐘
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5
（滿分 5 顆星）
19 則評分

簡介

The Broken Pie Chart Podcast offers fresh looks at investment portfolio management, economics, markets, retirement planning, and more by simplifying and explaining important aspects of financial markets and the economy in easy to understand ways.

資訊

  • 創作者
    Derek Moore
  • 活躍年代
    2018年 - 2024年
  • 集數
    296
  • 年齡分級
    兒少適宜
  • 版權
    © Copyright Broken Pie Chart Podcast. Can site, link, or share provided podcast website listed and sourced.
  • 節目網站
    Broken Pie Chart

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