RWH023: Defensive Investing In Dangerous Times W/ Guy Spier

William chats with renowned hedge fund manager Guy Spier. Since launching the Aquamarine Fund in 1997, Guy has beaten the S&P 500 by 200 percentage points & the MSCI World index by 364 percentage points. He’s also the author of “The Education of a Value Investor.” In this conversation, Guy speaks candidly about the challenges he’s facing, including his fear that Russia’s war in Ukraine could escalate, creating a systemic risk for investors. He explains how he’s positioning his portfolio to survive & prosper in these perilous times, & he shares practical advice on how to maintain equanimity amid all this uncertainty.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

00:00 - Intro

03:56 - How living in a calm & predictable environment helps Guy Spier to invest better.

12:04 - How he resisted the temptation to buy overvalued tech stocks during the recent bubble.

26:11 - Why we must beware of the psychological effects of rapidly rising or falling stock prices.

30:04 - Why Guy refuses to invest in any business that can’t fund all of its growth internally.

44:18 - How going to Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting helps to reinforce rational behavior.

53:57 - What Warren Buffett told Guy Spier & Mohnish Pabrai about the perils of debt.

1:13:04 - Why Guy regards the war in Ukraine as a potentially systemic threat to investors. 

1:11:56 - Where he’s investing in order to survive & prosper in these times of heightened risk and why he’s invested heavily in China, despite the political & economic dangers.

1:13:55 - Why he’s avoiding weaker countries, including Indonesia & the Philippines.

1:15:01 - How he wrestles with the tricky question of whether to trim or hold his winners. 

1:18:17 - Why he’ll never short another stock.

1:19:31 - How he constructs a portfolio that helps him to maintain his emotional equilibrium.

1:43:35 - Why he diverged from Mohnish on the risks & rewards of investing in Turkey.

1:59:08 - What Guy & Mohnish have learned from the stunning success of their friend Li Lu.

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES

• Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, and the other community members.
• Listen to William Green’s 2022 interview with Guy Spier on How to Build Enduring Wealth (RWH009) or watch the video.
• Listen to William’s 2022 interview with Guy on High-Performance Habits (RWH010) or watch the video.
• Listen to William’s interview with Ray Dalio on the “Richer, Wiser, Happier” podcast or watch the video.
• Guy Spier’s book, “The Education of a Value Investor” –