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Welcome back to another episode of Refined Insight! Join our Americas Intelligence Analysts Sydney Stewart and Claire Brady as they unpack Biden's underwhelming debate performance, Biden's potential withdrawal from the race (and what happens if he does!) and the security implications of upcoming electoral events such as the Democratic National Convention! If you enjoyed the episode, please give us a like and subscribe for new episodes! You can also contact us with any questions or feedback: info@sibylline.co.uk What Just Happened: Sibylline aims to bring you two distinct channels (short-form and long-form). What Just Happened is another podcast offering that aims to cover major geopolitical events as they happen through short, concise episodes where our regional experts sit down and discuss the who, what, where, when and why on any given event so you can stay up to date! Be sure to check out the show on your favourite podcast provider: What Just Happened on SpotifyWhat Just Happened on Apple Podcasts
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Lead Americas Analyst Sydney Stewart and Middle East and Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe return to cover the latest escalation in the ongoing Israel-Iran shadow war.
On 19 April, Iran activated its air defences in response to reported drone incursions, likely from Israel, near air bases in Esfahan and Tabriz. The strikes followed Iran's earlier launch of drones and missiles towards Israel. The Biden administration distanced itself from the Israeli attack but confirmed that it had been notified. Sanctions against Iran were discussed. Potential scenarios include increased strikes on Iranian proxies by Israel and possible retaliatory measures from Iran. The risk of escalation is acknowledged, with the possibility of a new baseline for direct engagement. The episode concludes with a focus on future US engagement and strategic risk forecasts for the region.
 
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In this special episode of 'What Just Happened,' Sydney Stewart, Lead Americas analyst, and Megan Sutcliffe from the Middle East and Africa desk are filling in for Ignacio Ayala while he is on leave! Together, Sydney and Megan unpack  Iran's unprecedented missile and drone attack on Israel over the weekend. Megan covers the motivations behind the attack and potential responses in the coming weeks while Sydney lays out the US perspective and the potential responses from Washington.
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In this episode, Ignacio Ayala discusses the recent alleged Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria with Middle East and North Africa analyst, Noam Ostfeld. The strike killed three top commanders of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, of the IRGC's Quds Force', a figure responsible for all operations in Syria and Lebanon. This marks a significant escalation in the region, as Israel had previously targeted lower-level IRGC personnel to disrupt Iran's support to its proxies. The episode delves into the potential repercussions of the strike, including Iran's vow to retaliate, concerns for Israeli assets and individuals, and the possibility of heightened tensions with Hezbollah along Israel's northern border. 
 
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In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined again by Megan Sutcliffe, associate analyst on the Middle East and Africa desk, to unravel the recent developments regarding the United Nations Security Council's ceasefire resolution for Gaza, marking a pivotal shift in U.S. foreign policy. Megan provides insights into the UN's call for an immediate ceasefire, the nuances of past resolutions, and the impact on Israel's political landscape. 
 
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Welcome to another episode of What Just Happened? This week, Ignacio Ayala, Lead Data and Insights analyst at Sibylline LTD, is joined by Sydney Stewart, Lead Americas analyst. Together, they unpack the resignation of Haiti's acting Prime Minister, Ariel Henry,  which has sparked widespread attention amid escalating violence and political turmoil. 
 
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