231 episodes

Two of the world's most profitable political gamblers tell you how to bet & win real money on elections, legislation, and court cases. A must-listen for anyone tired of partisan news & bogus polls that obscure the facts.

Star Spangled Gamblers Keendawg & Pratik

    • News
    • 4.8 • 62 Ratings

Two of the world's most profitable political gamblers tell you how to bet & win real money on elections, legislation, and court cases. A must-listen for anyone tired of partisan news & bogus polls that obscure the facts.

    Final Predictions on Argentina's Presidential Elections

    Final Predictions on Argentina's Presidential Elections

    Colombia-based trader Ian Bezek (@irbezek) returns to the show to offer some final thoughts on the close and uncertain presidential race in Argentina.
    1:32: Ian's thoughts on the final debate between Javier Milei and Sergio Massa
    2:10: Ian's advice on Polymarket's margin market
    5:20: Interview begins
    6:06: Massa's backround
    7:43: Massa's political baggage
    8:45: Questions about Massa's alleged drug addiction
    9:56: Market volatility since the eve of the first round of elections
    11:39: Why did polls miss on the first round?
    12:49: Milei's shortcomings
    14:34: Summary of first round results
    15:38: Why so much market volatility?
    18:29: How much of Patricia Bullrich's support will go to Milei?
    19:57: Argentina's economy
    25:41: Milei's extremist statements
    27:54: How foreign investors are seeing the election
    29:19: Massa overperformed the polls
    32:25: Polling
    34:52: Ian's predictions and advice
    35:50: Pratik's argument for buying Massa
    39:18: Stock prices of Milei's former employer
    40:58: Implications of a Milei victory for political betting
    42:27: Recent elections in South America

    Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers

    • 43 min
    Why Azerbaijan Might Actually Invade Armenia

    Why Azerbaijan Might Actually Invade Armenia

    Eurasia expert Kristofer Harrison makes the case for why the odds of an invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan are much higher than the market price on Polymarket.
    3:54: Interview with Harrison begins
    5:06: Do hedge funds use political betting insights?
    7:10: Background on Armenia and Azerbaijan
    7:56: Why there are tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan
    12:15: Russia's role in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict
    14:29: Domestic politics in Armenia
    15:18: Evidence that Azerbaijan is serious about invading
    17:44: Why hasn't Azerbaijan already invaded Armenia?
    18:43: Balance of power between Azerbaijan and Armenia
    20:37: Have Russia and/orTurkey greenlighted an invasion?
    22:08: Will the West stop a war?
    24:12: Odds of an invasion
    27:24: Influence of the weather in Nagorno-Karabach
    29:57: How rogue is Aliyev?
    33:43: Religion in Azerbaijan
    35:05: How much does Azerbaijan care about international investment?
    36:55: How keep up with news related to the Azerbaijan-Armenia market
    38:44: Will Putin still be in power by the end of the year?
    Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers
    Join Star Spangled Gamblers on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers/posts

    • 40 min
    Final Predictions on the Kentucky Governor's Race

    Final Predictions on the Kentucky Governor's Race

    On the eve of the Kentucky governor's election, a new poll by Emerson suggests that the race could be much closer than initially expected.

    SSG Title Belt Champion TheWinner (@thewinner2875) and Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) join the show to make their final predictions.

    Although they generally agree in their analyses, they settle on a side bet and a challenge for the SSG Title Belt.

    3:20: Main segment begins
    4:10: Introduction to Dr. Cruse
    6:51: Emerson polling
    8:20: Current market prices
    12:31: The role of national politics
    14:16: Racial politics
    17:21: SSG TItle Belt Challenge
    23:36: Polling in Kentucky
    24:30: Fundraising
    25:25: Indicators pointing to a Beshear win
    28:30: Limited national attention
    31:10: Kentucky governors races as national bellweathers
    35:36: Pratik summarizes the discussion
    37:15: TheWinner's final margin prediction
    37:58: Potential impact of the war in Israel

    Trade on Polymarket here: https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-democrat-win-the-kentucky-gubernatorial-election

    Follow SSG on Twitter: @ssgamblers

    • 41 min
    A Democratic Frontrunner in the Kentucky Governor's Race

    A Democratic Frontrunner in the Kentucky Governor's Race

    3-Part Episode
    — Keendawg returns to discuss why Andy Beshear, Kentucky's Democratic Governor, is favored for re-election, but why lottos on his Republican challenger might be a good bet

    — Pratik reports on new evidence that Kalshi was behind the CFTC's enforcement action against Polymarket

    — MagaVacuum explains how to gain a betting edge while traveling to campaign events

    4:24: Interview with Keendawg begins
    4:40: Keendawg's role in founding Star Spangled Gamblers 

    7:14: Kentucky colonels

    9:42: Who is Andy Beshear and why is he the favorite in the KY governor's race?

    15:29: Who is Daniel Cameron?

    18:20: Counties in Kentucky to watch

    21:35: Why Andy Beshear won in 2019

    22:14: Cameron's appeal

    23:26: Background on KY politics

    25:27: Partisan politics in KY

    26:54: Lexington-Louisville rivalry

    27:42: Davies County

    28:47: Segment begins on Kalshi's role in Polymarket

    30:18: Former CFTC official Maggie Sklar's comment to the CFTC against Kalshi

    34:23: MAGAVacuum's research on communications and political prediction markets

    36:00: How to gain an edge by traveling to campaign events

    Show Notes
    — Sklar's letter to CFTC https://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/ViewComment.aspx?id=72703&SearchText=sklar

    Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers
    Follow Pratik Chougule on Twitter: @pjchougule

    • 39 min
    Inside the Review that Led to Kalshi's Rejection at the CFTC

    Inside the Review that Led to Kalshi's Rejection at the CFTC

    After another review with a 30-day public comment period, the CFTC rejected Kalshi's proposal to offer election contracts.
    Mick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into the outpouring of public comments that led to the CFTC's decision.
    0:00: Introduction begins
    2:14: Kalshi's incentives and how they shape its strategy toward political betting regulation

    3:46: Kalshi's policy on transparency

    5:27: Kalshi's diverging incentives from the political betting community

    7:42: How Pratik's assumptions on political betting regulation differ from those of Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour

    13:03: Interview with Mick begins

    15:18: Background on the latest 30-day comment period

    16:40: Why the CFTC received a flood of comments

    17:46: Were the anti-Kalshi comments AI-generated?

    18:10: Public Citizen

    20:57: Better Markets

    21:55: Letter from Representatives John Sarbanes and Jamie Raskin

    22:55: Center for American Progress

    25:09: Are prediction markets becoming a partisan football?

    31:11: Errors and poor analysis in the anti-Kalshi letters

    33:41: Kalshi's response

    46:40: Why Pratik lost confidence in Kalshi's regulatory approach


    Mick Bransfield's website: https://mickbransfield.com/markets/

    Coalition for Political Forecasting: http://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/

    Coalition for Political Forecasting comment to CFTC: http://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/coalition-for-political-forecasting-response-to-cftcs-request-for-public-comments-on-questions-related-to-kalshis-self-certified-congressional-control-contracts/

    • 43 min
    Richard Hanania Takes on Cancel Culture in the Political Betting Community

    Richard Hanania Takes on Cancel Culture in the Political Betting Community

    After listening to our recent episode about calls in the forecasting community to cancel him, Richard Hanania offered to appear on the show. Richard and Pratik Chougule discuss:

    — Cancel culture in the rationalist community
    — The conservative judiciary and how it could legalize prediction markets
    — The odds of Vivek Ramaswamy and Donald Trump to secure the GOP nomination
    — Balancing the incentives of being a forecaster and a pundit

    3:25: Interview begins
    4:14: Richard's new book The Origins of Woke and his association with Vivek Ramaswamy
    7:00: Richard responds to those in the forecasting community who want to cancel him
    8:12: How cancel culture is changing
    10:13: Manifest Conference
    11:12: Market-based responses to cancel culture
    14:27: GOP nominee odds
    15:56: Ramaswamy's views on prediction markets
    17:50: PredictIt lawsuit against the CFTC
    20:31: Conservative legal movement
    32:20: Reasons why election markets became partisan
    33:01: Political implications of Trump's legal problems
    34:55: Hanania responds to haters and calls for open-mindedness
    36:11: Incentives for political gambling versus punditry
    40:11: Pratik plugs Origins of Woke

    • 42 min

Customer Reviews

4.8 out of 5
62 Ratings

62 Ratings

Sir justin the first ,

Smart and entertaining

I have been fascinated by prediction markets for years. I think prediction markets are useful (and fun) in all kinds of domains. While SBG is focused on political prediction markets I think there are a lot of lessons for prediction markets in general, forecasting and critical thinking Pratik does some amazing deep dives and introduces listeners to a lot of fascinating traders. The nature of these markets means that you really don’t get the same kind of value from reading dated books and article on prediction markets as you do from hearing active traders.


Excellent Overview of Election Markets

Pratik and team do a great job covering the relevant election markets and trends occurring within them. I highly recommend for anyone wanting to stay up-to-date on what’s happening both with these markets as well as on the regulatory front.

brndn1322 ,

Excellent Podcast

This is the best political predictions podcast. Highly recommended to learn about politics.

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