Star Spangled Gamblers Keendawg & Pratik

Hemma Kilawan, a member of the SSG team, analyzes whether and when Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will get engaged.

Timestamps

0:40: Pratik explains why SSG is covering Taylor Swift markets and how they relate to political gambling

3:50: Pratik thanks a Patreon sponsor and why his contribution is important

8:15: Interview with Hemma begins

9:28: Hemma's impressions of political gambling

9:58: Can political gambling reach beyond its target demographics?

11:12: Taylor Swift as a political actor

16:18: Polymarket markets on Taylor Swift

16:59: Is the Swift-Kelce relationship real?

19:04: How to research Taylor Swift relationship gossip

20:56: Swift-Kelce relationship timeline

24:34: Swift's past relationships

27:57: The Eras Tour

31:23: Kelce's public statements

32:02: Do they want kids?

35:23: Trading strategies for the Swift engagement market

40:13: Will Taylor Swift be pregnant this year?

44:48: How political betting spurs interest in topics
SUPPORT US
Patreon: www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers
FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL
Twitter: www.twitter.com/ssgamblers
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@starspangledgambl7
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjZUfG2_5fqJHfXGtjsayww
VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: www.starspangledgamblers.com

Doug Campbell returns to SSG to provide an update on the war in Ukraine. 
Doug is the founder and CEO of Insight Prediction, an expert on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a whale trader himself.
Doug argues that the war has become a stalemate and provides advice on how to trade on this reality.
0:42: Doug's background

0:52: Doug's SSG interview about his time in Russia https://youtu.be/BZ0BbIbMcYg?si=Hr-jrGmlmi3LX9O2
1:11: Doug's talk on war markets at Manifest https://youtu.be/YrhsSohbRO4?si=07mDDuDKZRE2i9Y4


1:32: Manifest conference 2024
4:33: Interview begins
5:17: High-level update on the war
13:23: Ukrainian intelligence before the war
14:37: U.S. intelligence estimates on Ukraine
18:12: Optimism on both sides of the word
19:21: Sanctions against Russia
22:58: Odds of Putin being assassinated
24:23: Russian involvement in Israel-Hamas conflict
25:14: Impact of a Trump victory
26:02: Western aid to Ukraine
28:01: Odds of Putin leaving office
29:48: Odds of Russian nuclear escalation
31:00: How to trade ceasefire markets
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers

Saul Munn is one of the world's leading experts on building the forecasting community. He is the Co-Founder of Optic Forecasting and the Lead Organizer of the Manifest conference.
In Part 1, Saul joins the show to discuss which communities comprise the emerging forecasting community.
In Part 2, Brian Darling, former counsel to Senator Rand Paul, returns to assess the Tennessee Senator Marsha Blackburn's odds of becoming Trump's VP pick.
In Part 3, Nathan Young returns to the show to advise on how to short AI hype in betting markets.
0:00: Pratik introduces the segment with Saul Munn
1:24: Saul's disclaimer on conflicts of interest
1:56: Manifest Conference 2024
3:26: Intro for Brian Darling segment on the GOP VP nominee market
4:16: How to trade on the GOP VP nomination
5:08: Intro to interview with Nathan Young
9:03: Interview with Saul begins
9:26: The importance of community in the political betting space
11:00: Optic forecasting clubs
12:44: How Saul became interested in the forecasting community
13:25: Manifest Conference
13:46: Diversity in the forecasting community
14:32: Who is in the broader forecasting community?
14:56: Destiny's role in the forecasting community
16:57: The types of people who are interested in forecasting
19:44: Differences between Washington politics and the forecasting community
20:40: Differences between the political betting community and the forecasting community
21:18: Communities interested in forecasting
21:47: Communities that could be interested in forecasting
24:34: Why some communities resist forecasting
28:20: Segment with Brian Darling begins
28:27: Kim Reynolds's VP odds
29:06: Marsha Blackburn's VP odds
30:05: Swing state VP contenders
31:26: Segment with Nathan Young begins
31:59: Taxing bad predictions
33:46: Shorting AI enthusiasm in political betting markets
34:47: Irrational pricing in Time Person of the Year markets 
40:12: Hedge funds and AI

Part 1: Washington-based lobbyist and former Rand Paul counsel Brian Darling returns to the show to discuss Trump's VP selection.
Part 2: Mick Bransfield, an expert on prediction market regulation, returns to discuss reports that PredictIt is pursuing a settlement with the CFTC.
0:57: Current market odds on Republican VP nominee
3:44: Pratik introduces Bransfield segment
4:37: Trump interview on his VP choice with Maria Bartiromo
8:28: Darling interview begins
10:00: Why Noem is the front-runner to be Trump's VP
11:49: Noem's history with Trump
15:15: Noem's alleged affair with Corey Lewandowski
16:26: Odds Trump will pick a woman running mate
17:26: The Republican Party's role in the VP selection
18:32: Trump's perspective on loyalty
21:45: Would Noem accept the VP nomination?
22:06: History of people rejecting offers to be VP
22:50: What price to pay for Noem yes shares
24:29: Why Haley is trading so high
31:42: Elise Stefanik's odds
33:57: Bransfield segment begins
39:03: Signs PredictIt will not pursue a constitutional challenge
Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers

Dr. Lucas (@Talophex) returns for a deep dive into Donald Trump's health and how it should inform a bet on whether he'll be elected president.

Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers

0:00: Pratik introduces the episode
1:17: Discoloration of Trump's hand and Trump's alleged body odor
4:17: Interview begins
5:46: Trump's coronary artery disease
6:32: Trump's physique
10:12: Trump's psychology
11:05: Note from Trump's doctor
13:38: Why hasn't Trump had a serious heart condition?
15:06: Trump's genetics
17:46: Is weight protective in old age?
21:00: Trump's cognitive decline
25:29: Trump's OCD
27:00: Trump's purpose in life
29:48: How Trump's legal issues could impact his health
35:00: How to trade on Trump's health
39:52: What to look for to assess Trump's health
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers
Donate to Star Spangled Gamblers via PayPal https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=9Q6KS5JPLNRRY

While Trump appears to hold a commanding lead heading in the Iowa caucuses, second place remains uncertain.
Ben Freeman challenges The Winner for the SSG title belt on the question of who will perform better in the Iowa caucuses: Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley.
Plus, Pratik Chougule explains the nomination process for the 2024 Golden Modelos.
0:00: Pratik introduces the Iowa caucuses segment
1:38: Pratik explains the nomination process for the 2024 Golden Modelos for Excellence in Political Gambling
4:15: SSG members' only private briefing on Taiwan elections
7:36: Segment on Iowa caucuses begins
8:15: What are SSG title belt challenges
9:20: Ben Freeman on why DeSantis is underpriced for second place in Iowa
12:20: The Winner on why DeSantis isn't likely to place second
13:38: Negotiating the belt challenge
14:10: Pratik's view on why DeSantis has the edge
15:30: Haley's feminism
17:07: Populism and wave politics
18:14: What is Haley's message?
28:30: Haley's lack of endorsements
37:30: Democratic presidential primary
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers