231 episodes
Star Spangled Gamblers Keendawg & Pratik
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- News
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4.8 • 62 Ratings
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Two of the world's most profitable political gamblers tell you how to bet & win real money on elections, legislation, and court cases. A must-listen for anyone tired of partisan news & bogus polls that obscure the facts.
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Final Predictions on Argentina's Presidential Elections
Colombia-based trader Ian Bezek (@irbezek) returns to the show to offer some final thoughts on the close and uncertain presidential race in Argentina.
1:32: Ian's thoughts on the final debate between Javier Milei and Sergio Massa
2:10: Ian's advice on Polymarket's margin market
5:20: Interview begins
6:06: Massa's backround
7:43: Massa's political baggage
8:45: Questions about Massa's alleged drug addiction
9:56: Market volatility since the eve of the first round of elections
11:39: Why did polls miss on the first round?
12:49: Milei's shortcomings
14:34: Summary of first round results
15:38: Why so much market volatility?
18:29: How much of Patricia Bullrich's support will go to Milei?
19:57: Argentina's economy
25:41: Milei's extremist statements
27:54: How foreign investors are seeing the election
29:19: Massa overperformed the polls
32:25: Polling
34:52: Ian's predictions and advice
35:50: Pratik's argument for buying Massa
39:18: Stock prices of Milei's former employer
40:58: Implications of a Milei victory for political betting
42:27: Recent elections in South America
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers -
Why Azerbaijan Might Actually Invade Armenia
Eurasia expert Kristofer Harrison makes the case for why the odds of an invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan are much higher than the market price on Polymarket.
3:54: Interview with Harrison begins
5:06: Do hedge funds use political betting insights?
7:10: Background on Armenia and Azerbaijan
7:56: Why there are tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan
12:15: Russia's role in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict
14:29: Domestic politics in Armenia
15:18: Evidence that Azerbaijan is serious about invading
17:44: Why hasn't Azerbaijan already invaded Armenia?
18:43: Balance of power between Azerbaijan and Armenia
20:37: Have Russia and/orTurkey greenlighted an invasion?
22:08: Will the West stop a war?
24:12: Odds of an invasion
27:24: Influence of the weather in Nagorno-Karabach
29:57: How rogue is Aliyev?
33:43: Religion in Azerbaijan
35:05: How much does Azerbaijan care about international investment?
36:55: How keep up with news related to the Azerbaijan-Armenia market
38:44: Will Putin still be in power by the end of the year?
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers
Join Star Spangled Gamblers on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers/posts -
Final Predictions on the Kentucky Governor's Race
On the eve of the Kentucky governor's election, a new poll by Emerson suggests that the race could be much closer than initially expected.
SSG Title Belt Champion TheWinner (@thewinner2875) and Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) join the show to make their final predictions.
Although they generally agree in their analyses, they settle on a side bet and a challenge for the SSG Title Belt.
3:20: Main segment begins
4:10: Introduction to Dr. Cruse
6:51: Emerson polling
8:20: Current market prices
12:31: The role of national politics
14:16: Racial politics
17:21: SSG TItle Belt Challenge
23:36: Polling in Kentucky
24:30: Fundraising
25:25: Indicators pointing to a Beshear win
28:30: Limited national attention
31:10: Kentucky governors races as national bellweathers
35:36: Pratik summarizes the discussion
37:15: TheWinner's final margin prediction
37:58: Potential impact of the war in Israel
Trade on Polymarket here: https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-democrat-win-the-kentucky-gubernatorial-election
Follow SSG on Twitter: @ssgamblers -
A Democratic Frontrunner in the Kentucky Governor's Race
3-Part Episode
— Keendawg returns to discuss why Andy Beshear, Kentucky's Democratic Governor, is favored for re-election, but why lottos on his Republican challenger might be a good bet
— Pratik reports on new evidence that Kalshi was behind the CFTC's enforcement action against Polymarket
— MagaVacuum explains how to gain a betting edge while traveling to campaign events
Timestamps
4:24: Interview with Keendawg begins
4:40: Keendawg's role in founding Star Spangled Gamblers
7:14: Kentucky colonels
9:42: Who is Andy Beshear and why is he the favorite in the KY governor's race?
15:29: Who is Daniel Cameron?
18:20: Counties in Kentucky to watch
21:35: Why Andy Beshear won in 2019
22:14: Cameron's appeal
23:26: Background on KY politics
25:27: Partisan politics in KY
26:54: Lexington-Louisville rivalry
27:42: Davies County
28:47: Segment begins on Kalshi's role in Polymarket
30:18: Former CFTC official Maggie Sklar's comment to the CFTC against Kalshi
34:23: MAGAVacuum's research on communications and political prediction markets
36:00: How to gain an edge by traveling to campaign events
Show Notes
— Sklar's letter to CFTC https://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/ViewComment.aspx?id=72703&SearchText=sklar
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers
Follow Pratik Chougule on Twitter: @pjchougule -
Inside the Review that Led to Kalshi's Rejection at the CFTC
After another review with a 30-day public comment period, the CFTC rejected Kalshi's proposal to offer election contracts.
Mick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into the outpouring of public comments that led to the CFTC's decision.
0:00: Introduction begins
2:14: Kalshi's incentives and how they shape its strategy toward political betting regulation
3:46: Kalshi's policy on transparency
5:27: Kalshi's diverging incentives from the political betting community
7:42: How Pratik's assumptions on political betting regulation differ from those of Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour
13:03: Interview with Mick begins
15:18: Background on the latest 30-day comment period
16:40: Why the CFTC received a flood of comments
17:46: Were the anti-Kalshi comments AI-generated?
18:10: Public Citizen
20:57: Better Markets
21:55: Letter from Representatives John Sarbanes and Jamie Raskin
22:55: Center for American Progress
25:09: Are prediction markets becoming a partisan football?
31:11: Errors and poor analysis in the anti-Kalshi letters
33:41: Kalshi's response
46:40: Why Pratik lost confidence in Kalshi's regulatory approach
Links:
Mick Bransfield's website: https://mickbransfield.com/markets/
Coalition for Political Forecasting: http://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/
Coalition for Political Forecasting comment to CFTC: http://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/coalition-for-political-forecasting-response-to-cftcs-request-for-public-comments-on-questions-related-to-kalshis-self-certified-congressional-control-contracts/ -
Richard Hanania Takes on Cancel Culture in the Political Betting Community
After listening to our recent episode about calls in the forecasting community to cancel him, Richard Hanania offered to appear on the show. Richard and Pratik Chougule discuss:
— Cancel culture in the rationalist community
— The conservative judiciary and how it could legalize prediction markets
— The odds of Vivek Ramaswamy and Donald Trump to secure the GOP nomination
— Balancing the incentives of being a forecaster and a pundit
3:25: Interview begins
4:14: Richard's new book The Origins of Woke and his association with Vivek Ramaswamy
7:00: Richard responds to those in the forecasting community who want to cancel him
8:12: How cancel culture is changing
10:13: Manifest Conference
11:12: Market-based responses to cancel culture
14:27: GOP nominee odds
15:56: Ramaswamy's views on prediction markets
17:50: PredictIt lawsuit against the CFTC
20:31: Conservative legal movement
32:20: Reasons why election markets became partisan
33:01: Political implications of Trump's legal problems
34:55: Hanania responds to haters and calls for open-mindedness
36:11: Incentives for political gambling versus punditry
40:11: Pratik plugs Origins of Woke
Customer Reviews
Smart and entertaining
I have been fascinated by prediction markets for years. I think prediction markets are useful (and fun) in all kinds of domains. While SBG is focused on political prediction markets I think there are a lot of lessons for prediction markets in general, forecasting and critical thinking Pratik does some amazing deep dives and introduces listeners to a lot of fascinating traders. The nature of these markets means that you really don’t get the same kind of value from reading dated books and article on prediction markets as you do from hearing active traders.
Excellent Overview of Election Markets
Pratik and team do a great job covering the relevant election markets and trends occurring within them. I highly recommend for anyone wanting to stay up-to-date on what’s happening both with these markets as well as on the regulatory front.
Excellent Podcast
This is the best political predictions podcast. Highly recommended to learn about politics.
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