Star Spangled Gamblers Keendawg & Pratik
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Two of the world's most profitable political gamblers tell you how to bet & win real money on elections, legislation, and court cases. A must-listen for anyone tired of partisan news & bogus polls that obscure the facts.
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When Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce Get Engaged?
Hemma Kilawan, a member of the SSG team, analyzes whether and when Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will get engaged.
Timestamps
0:40: Pratik explains why SSG is covering Taylor Swift markets and how they relate to political gambling
3:50: Pratik thanks a Patreon sponsor and why his contribution is important
8:15: Interview with Hemma begins
9:28: Hemma's impressions of political gambling
9:58: Can political gambling reach beyond its target demographics?
11:12: Taylor Swift as a political actor
16:18: Polymarket markets on Taylor Swift
16:59: Is the Swift-Kelce relationship real?
19:04: How to research Taylor Swift relationship gossip
20:56: Swift-Kelce relationship timeline
24:34: Swift's past relationships
27:57: The Eras Tour
31:23: Kelce's public statements
32:02: Do they want kids?
35:23: Trading strategies for the Swift engagement market
40:13: Will Taylor Swift be pregnant this year?
44:48: How political betting spurs interest in topics
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Stalemate in Ukraine
Doug Campbell returns to SSG to provide an update on the war in Ukraine.
Doug is the founder and CEO of Insight Prediction, an expert on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a whale trader himself.
Doug argues that the war has become a stalemate and provides advice on how to trade on this reality.
0:42: Doug's background
0:52: Doug's SSG interview about his time in Russia https://youtu.be/BZ0BbIbMcYg?si=Hr-jrGmlmi3LX9O2
1:11: Doug's talk on war markets at Manifest https://youtu.be/YrhsSohbRO4?si=07mDDuDKZRE2i9Y4
1:32: Manifest conference 2024
4:33: Interview begins
5:17: High-level update on the war
13:23: Ukrainian intelligence before the war
14:37: U.S. intelligence estimates on Ukraine
18:12: Optimism on both sides of the word
19:21: Sanctions against Russia
22:58: Odds of Putin being assassinated
24:23: Russian involvement in Israel-Hamas conflict
25:14: Impact of a Trump victory
26:02: Western aid to Ukraine
28:01: Odds of Putin leaving office
29:48: Odds of Russian nuclear escalation
31:00: How to trade ceasefire markets
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The Emerging Forecasting Community
Saul Munn is one of the world's leading experts on building the forecasting community. He is the Co-Founder of Optic Forecasting and the Lead Organizer of the Manifest conference.
In Part 1, Saul joins the show to discuss which communities comprise the emerging forecasting community.
In Part 2, Brian Darling, former counsel to Senator Rand Paul, returns to assess the Tennessee Senator Marsha Blackburn's odds of becoming Trump's VP pick.
In Part 3, Nathan Young returns to the show to advise on how to short AI hype in betting markets.
0:00: Pratik introduces the segment with Saul Munn
1:24: Saul's disclaimer on conflicts of interest
1:56: Manifest Conference 2024
3:26: Intro for Brian Darling segment on the GOP VP nominee market
4:16: How to trade on the GOP VP nomination
5:08: Intro to interview with Nathan Young
9:03: Interview with Saul begins
9:26: The importance of community in the political betting space
11:00: Optic forecasting clubs
12:44: How Saul became interested in the forecasting community
13:25: Manifest Conference
13:46: Diversity in the forecasting community
14:32: Who is in the broader forecasting community?
14:56: Destiny's role in the forecasting community
16:57: The types of people who are interested in forecasting
19:44: Differences between Washington politics and the forecasting community
20:40: Differences between the political betting community and the forecasting community
21:18: Communities interested in forecasting
21:47: Communities that could be interested in forecasting
24:34: Why some communities resist forecasting
28:20: Segment with Brian Darling begins
28:27: Kim Reynolds's VP odds
29:06: Marsha Blackburn's VP odds
30:05: Swing state VP contenders
31:26: Segment with Nathan Young begins
31:59: Taxing bad predictions
33:46: Shorting AI enthusiasm in political betting markets
34:47: Irrational pricing in Time Person of the Year markets
40:12: Hedge funds and AI -
The Women Who Might Be Trump's VP
Part 1: Washington-based lobbyist and former Rand Paul counsel Brian Darling returns to the show to discuss Trump's VP selection.
Part 2: Mick Bransfield, an expert on prediction market regulation, returns to discuss reports that PredictIt is pursuing a settlement with the CFTC.
0:57: Current market odds on Republican VP nominee
3:44: Pratik introduces Bransfield segment
4:37: Trump interview on his VP choice with Maria Bartiromo
8:28: Darling interview begins
10:00: Why Noem is the front-runner to be Trump's VP
11:49: Noem's history with Trump
15:15: Noem's alleged affair with Corey Lewandowski
16:26: Odds Trump will pick a woman running mate
17:26: The Republican Party's role in the VP selection
18:32: Trump's perspective on loyalty
21:45: Would Noem accept the VP nomination?
22:06: History of people rejecting offers to be VP
22:50: What price to pay for Noem yes shares
24:29: Why Haley is trading so high
31:42: Elise Stefanik's odds
33:57: Bransfield segment begins
39:03: Signs PredictIt will not pursue a constitutional challenge
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How Bad Is Trump's Health?
Dr. Lucas (@Talophex) returns for a deep dive into Donald Trump's health and how it should inform a bet on whether he'll be elected president.
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0:00: Pratik introduces the episode
1:17: Discoloration of Trump's hand and Trump's alleged body odor
4:17: Interview begins
5:46: Trump's coronary artery disease
6:32: Trump's physique
10:12: Trump's psychology
11:05: Note from Trump's doctor
13:38: Why hasn't Trump had a serious heart condition?
15:06: Trump's genetics
17:46: Is weight protective in old age?
21:00: Trump's cognitive decline
25:29: Trump's OCD
27:00: Trump's purpose in life
29:48: How Trump's legal issues could impact his health
35:00: How to trade on Trump's health
39:52: What to look for to assess Trump's health
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Haley and DeSantis Battle for Second in Iowa
While Trump appears to hold a commanding lead heading in the Iowa caucuses, second place remains uncertain.
Ben Freeman challenges The Winner for the SSG title belt on the question of who will perform better in the Iowa caucuses: Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley.
Plus, Pratik Chougule explains the nomination process for the 2024 Golden Modelos.
0:00: Pratik introduces the Iowa caucuses segment
1:38: Pratik explains the nomination process for the 2024 Golden Modelos for Excellence in Political Gambling
4:15: SSG members' only private briefing on Taiwan elections
7:36: Segment on Iowa caucuses begins
8:15: What are SSG title belt challenges
9:20: Ben Freeman on why DeSantis is underpriced for second place in Iowa
12:20: The Winner on why DeSantis isn't likely to place second
13:38: Negotiating the belt challenge
14:10: Pratik's view on why DeSantis has the edge
15:30: Haley's feminism
17:07: Populism and wave politics
18:14: What is Haley's message?
28:30: Haley's lack of endorsements
37:30: Democratic presidential primary
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Customer Reviews
Smart and entertaining
I have been fascinated by prediction markets for years. I think prediction markets are useful (and fun) in all kinds of domains. While SBG is focused on political prediction markets I think there are a lot of lessons for prediction markets in general, forecasting and critical thinking Pratik does some amazing deep dives and introduces listeners to a lot of fascinating traders. The nature of these markets means that you really don’t get the same kind of value from reading dated books and article on prediction markets as you do from hearing active traders.
Excellent Overview of Election Markets
Pratik and team do a great job covering the relevant election markets and trends occurring within them. I highly recommend for anyone wanting to stay up-to-date on what’s happening both with these markets as well as on the regulatory front.
Excellent Podcast
This is the best political predictions podcast. Highly recommended to learn about politics.