Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore
  • 5.0 (19)
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  • 一周一更
Broken Pie Chart

The Broken Pie Chart Podcast offers fresh looks at investment portfolio management, economics, markets, retirement planning, and more by simplifying and explaining important aspects of financial markets and the economy in easy to understand ways.

  1. 5天前

    S&P 500 7000 By Year End 2025? | Multiples vs Earnings Growth | Inflation Still Too High? | Probabilities Calculated Using Options | Fair Share on Taxes?

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli gather once again to discuss whether inflation is too high for the Fed to aggressively cut rates more. Then, they talk about the probability of the S&P 500 closing or getting to 7000 by year end 2025. Plus, is inflation still too high looking at Core CPI and CPI Supercore for the fed to cut rates as much as projected. Later, they go into some myths on the US debt and foreign ownership of treasuries, US Dollar Index against some resistance levels, what does paying your fair share in taxes mean, and more.   How probabilities are calculated based on option prices Current probability of the S&P 500 Index hitting 7000 by year end 2025 Difference between probability of touching and probability of expiring in the money Looking at the current forward PE ratio and multiple for the S&P Calculating theoretical year end 2025 S&P price at different earnings and multiples Is the PE multiple too high? US Dollar moves higher but coming up against resistance? Looking at who owns the $34 Trillion US Debt Percentage of foreign countries who own treasuries Many people think China owns more treasuries than it currently does How much does the Fed own of outstanding US debt? What does paying your fair share in taxes mean? Income comparisons when including government transfer payments (benefits) and taxes Data from New York City points to a small number of people paying most of the taxes CPI Supercore CPI Core and the Fed targets Shelter inflation How big of a company would SpaceX be if it went public? Broadcom hits $1 Trillion in market cap today   Mentioned in this Episode   CBO report on Distribution of Household Income https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56575   NYC Department of Taxation https://www.tax.ny.gov/data/stats/taxfacts/personal-income-tax.htm   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    50 分钟

  2. 12月9日

    Hawk Tuah Crypto Scam? | United Healthcare CEO Single Stock Risk| Unemployment Breakdown | +29% S&P Years More Common| MicroStrategy vs. Bitcoin

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli cover markets including the news on the CEO of United Healthcare, the Hawk Tuah meme coin alleged scam, unpacking the latest unemployment report, how markets go up 29% or more in a year more often than you’d think, and how the rotation of voting members of the FOMC might be hawkish in 2025. Plus, checking in on the ratio of returns of MicroStrategy vs. Bitcoin.  Plus, looking at the 53-month drawdown in the US Aggregate Bond Index and corresponding ETF.   Hawk Tuah crypto meme coin alleged scam, pump and dump, rug pull etc (alleged) What is a pump and dump, or rug pull? Why would anyone buy a meme coin? Reacting to the news on United Healthcare’s CEO being murdered Understanding single stock risk and hedging Reviewing the components of the latest unemployment numbers Difference between the household and establishment employment survey Was there more unemployment or more new entrants that drove the number? US Aggregate Bond Index ETF AGG’s years long drawdown Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy relative performance since the recent all-time high in MicroStrategy Looking at the relative ratio of performance on the way up and since it’s retraced Who’s out and who’s in at the Fed FOMC voting committee in 2025 US Average Hourly Earnings Bloomberg’s AI program to identify how many S&P 500 companies mentioned job cuts Contribution to the US Unemployment rate   Mentioned in this Episode   US Unemployment report (the one with the unemployment rate percentage) https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    1 小时 4 分钟

  3. 12月2日

    Markets Getting Overvalued? | MicroStrategy Convertible Bonds| 1st Year Presidential Cycle | 2025 Year End S&P 500 Targets Lazy?| MicroStrategy Option Volatility

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli join up once again to talk about whether the forward PE ratio is getting overextended. Then, they discuss where we are in the 4-year Presidential market cycle, years with the most all-time highs, the US Dollar and interest rates, and PCE inflation numbers. Later, they get into the dynamics of the MicroStrategy convertible bonds and how they resemble options.  Finally, they talk through the option dynamics on MicroStrategy include what the implied volatility is, what it is implying for a move over the next year, and what the breakeven levels would be on a 1-year option. Hint, it may be crazy!   MicroStrategy convertible bonds explained MicroStrategy option implied volatility Price of the 1-year MicroStrategy straddle and breakeven levels 2025 Wall Street S&P 500 Index year end targets Looking at how many times the markets are average Inflation is still above the 2% Fed supposed target so what now? US Dollar index and interest rates Which year had the most intra-year all-time highs? 1st year of the presidential cycle and the market Forward PE ratios are extended so is that an issue? Makeup of the S&P 500 Index companies is different today than 40 years ago Checking in on earnings estimates   Mentioned in this Episode   Historical Market returns S&P 500, Tbills, Tbonds, gold, and housing since 1928 from Professor Aswath Damodaran and NYU Stern School of Business https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    1 小时 5 分钟

  4. 11月25日

    Nvidia Gets Cheaper?|Buying Bitcoin vs Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy | Dominos vs. Google | Historical Post Election Markets | Morgan Stanley Says 6500 SPX in 25’

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back on the big 300th episode to discuss whether Michael Saylor’s ‘Bitcoin Yield’ makes sense and looking at why people are buying MicroStrategy vs just buying Bitcoin. Then they talk Nvidia earnings and how it is getting cheaper on a forward 12-month PE ratio basis even as the price has moved higher. Plus, they look at the options action on Nvidia right before earnings. Speaking of semiconductors, they look at a potentially bearish pattern in the SOX Index, the Dollar Yen pair getting back to August levels, and ask the question if you could have bought Dominos Pizza or Google at their respective IPOs, which one would you have taken and how its worked out.   MicroStrategy market cap value vs the value of their total Bitcoin holding Wall Street Journal Jonathan Weil article on Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy What is the Bitcoin Yield? Forward PE ratio of Nvidia vs its price Nvidia earnings options action Performance of Dominos Pizza vs Google since their respective IPOs Median S&P 500 Index historical performance post-election and after inauguration US vs international vs The Dollar post-election performance Argentia ETF post Javier Milei’s election victory bullish move The Dollar Yen pair moves back towards the old August highs, but does it mean anything? Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs put a 6500 year end 2025 price target on the S&P 500     Mentioned in this Episode   MicroStrategy’s Magical Bitcoin Machine article in WSJ by Jonathan Weil https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/microstrategys-magical-bitcoin-buying-machine-uses-some-wacky-math-da7d85d0?st=AUzUiM   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    54 分钟

  5. 11月18日

    MicroStrategy Market Cap vs Bitcoin | Valuations Getting Frothy ? | Yields vs Fed Cuts | Second Inflation Surge? | US Dollar Problem | Nvidia Options

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli talk through the latest market action including the forward PE ratio looking frothy, yields continue rising, probability of rate cuts dropping, and when and if the US Dollar strength will be a problem. Plus, talking about Barron’s article comparing the market cap of MicroStrategy vs the value of their Bitcoin holdings. S&P 500 Index earnings yield vs the 10-year Treasury yield. Then, they discuss why people are saying we are going to have a coming second surge for inflation. Later, they talk about volatility on Nvidia a week out from earnings and their options, 90+ days delinquent credit card debt rising, and comparing post-election rallies around close Presidential elections.   MicroStrategy market cap value vs the value of their total Bitcoin holding Post election rallies around close Presidential elections 10-Year Treasury Yields acting different than normal post Fed cutting action US 2-year Treasury yield vs the Fed Funds target rate Probability of interest rate cut in December update US Inflation progress stalled in October? US Dollar Index pushing through resistance When the US Dollar strength matters and when it doesn’t Comparing where we are today with inflation against the 1970s chart S&P 500 Index risk premium (forward earnings yield minus 10-year treasury yield) Percentage of US credit card debt that is delinquent reaches highest level in over a decade S&P 500 Index forward EPS estimates Barron’s article evaluating MicroStrategy’s premium to its Bitcoin holdings     Mentioned in this Episode   Barron’s Article on Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy valuation https://www.barrons.com/articles/microstrategy-stock-price-bitcoin-valuation-702281bd   Explanation of US sugar tariffs and the history of behind them https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/candy-coated-cartel-time-kill-us-sugar-program#an-overview-of-u-s-sugar-policy   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    49 分钟

  6. 11月11日

    S&P 500 6000 | Bitcoin Strategic Reserve? | Why Bond Yields May Go Higher | Fed Rate Cuts Near All-Time Highs Bullish?

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli decide who got the S&P 500 Index 6000 prediction right. Then they talk about Bitcoin running to new highs and some theories about a Bitcoin strategic reserve now that Trump is the President Elect. Later, they review some data pointing to bond yields remaining high (or going higher). Then discussing how investment banks S&P targets rise to follow the markets. All that plus a listener email.   Small Cap fund flows into IWM TLT ETF bond flows Bitcoin makes new highs and ETF fund flows surge Hussman 12-year forward estimate nonfinancial market cap divided by gross value-added Goldman Sachs 12-month S&P Price Target Markets 12-month forward performance after Fed cuts rates near all-time highs 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. Nominal GDP Growth Trump to stockpile Bitcoin in a strategic reserve? VIX and implied volatility collapse post-election Jay and Derek discuss who correctly called S&P 500 6000 by the end of the year     Mentioned in this Episode   Trump – Stockpile Bitcoin in strategic reserve https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-money/2024/08/05/trumps-latest-crypto-gamble-00172611   Podcast where Jay and Derek predicted S&P 500 6000 back in mid June https://open.spotify.com/episode/5kEdjbbXKuCJ114381jYL8?si=420ed5b0864e4aea   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    59 分钟

  7. 11月3日

    Unemployment Bad News? | Markets After Elections | Earnings Beats | Trump vs. Harris Election Analysis

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli go through the recent unemployment numbers to see whether it was as bad as reported. Plus, did the recent hurricane throw off the surveys? Then they look at next week’s prediction for interest rates for the Fed Meeting. Derek and Jay pull up the 30-year mortgage rate vs the 10-year treasury and talk about what’s happened since the first Fed cut. Later they look at housing starts vs completions and try to make sense of whether it's bullish or bearish, the market concentration of the top 10 stocks, seasonality in the S&P 500 index, and looking at earnings so far including whether companies are beating and what sectors are doing well. Then stay tuned as Spencer Wright joins Derek to review the data in the upcoming election. Are the polls accurate? How is Trump performing vs Biden and Clinton in previous races? The electoral college states that matter and even a potential election tie. Unemployment disappoints? How the predictions all missed except for Bloomberg survey that was closer Analyzing the jobs data and is it the bad news is good news again scenario ahead of the Fed? Earnings beats and evaluating the EPS and revenue by sector S&P 500 Index seasonality post elections and non-election years Housing starts minus completions and what it means if anything The stock markets current bullish streak Top 10 S&P stocks now 37% of the index US Federal government spending vs. tax revenue 30-year mortgage rates and the 10-year treasury go higher since 1st Fed cut What are fed funds futures predicting for rate cut at next week’s Fed meeting? Is bad weather to blame for low respondent rates to employment surveys? Trump vs. Harris based on the latest polling data Will the polls be accurate this time (correcting polling errors?) Predictions on who will win Comparing Trump’s numbers this year 2024 vs 2020 and 2016 in the swing states Mentioned in this Episode 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map https://www.270towin.com/ BLS October Employment release https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage US Average https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US      US Market Returns by Political Party Historical https://zegafinancial.com/blog/should-investors-be- worried-about-the-election-and-what-to-do-if-you-are Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    1 小时 33 分钟

  8. 10月27日

    Goldman Makes News With 3% S&P Target | Markets Too Concentrated? | What If Mortgage Rates Don’t Fall? | Gold Returns Examined

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli talk about everyone talking about Goldman’s 3% annual return target for next 10 years. What’s behind their analysis includes whether the S&P 500 Index has too much concentration. Then they discuss what is responsible in retrospect for markets going up or down including profit margins, sales, buybacks, dividends, and EPS. Later, they talk about gold and its huge jump in 2024. Finally, how underwhelming the small caps have been relative to past bull markets, S&P 500 Index constituent turnover, and Apple’s options volatility pre-earnings.   Goldman Sachs base case of 3% annualized return next 10 years Vanguard’s June 2024 10 year forward annualized return estimates How market movement is attributed to EPS, Sales, Dividends, Margins, and Buybacks Historical 10-year constituent turnover for S&P 500 Index Touching on Meb Faber’s observation of both Gold and the S&P 500 above 25% return for year Small caps lowest bull market return covering 13 bull markets since 1949 Apple earnings and the option volatility Cost of the Apple straddle a week before earnings Uber’s implied volatility pre-earnings week Spread between the 30-year mortgage and the 10-year treasury yield What if mortgage rates and long bonds go up not down? MBS bonds (mortgage backed securities) nuances     Mentioned in this Episode   Goldman Sachs forward baseline 3% annual return forecast next 10 years full report https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2024/10/18/29e68989-0d2c-4960-bd4b-010a101f711e.pdf   Vanguard June 30th 2024 10 year forward returns forecast https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-return-forecasts.html#:~:text=The%20largest%20shift%20was%20in,Capital%20Markets%20Model%20(VCMM) Mortgage Spreads and The Yield Curve Economic Brief Richmond Federal Reserve Bank https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2023/eb_23-27 Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com         296

    1 小时 1 分钟
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关于

The Broken Pie Chart Podcast offers fresh looks at investment portfolio management, economics, markets, retirement planning, and more by simplifying and explaining important aspects of financial markets and the economy in easy to understand ways.

信息

  • 创作者
    Derek Moore
  • 活跃年份
    2018年 - 2024年
  • 单集
    303
  • 分级
    儿童适宜
  • 版权
    © Copyright Broken Pie Chart Podcast. Can site, link, or share provided podcast website listed and sourced.
  • 节目网站
    Broken Pie Chart

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