Tax talk 2025 — Policies, provisions and perspectives
Note: This podcast episode was recorded Nov. 20, 2024, and since then, the U.S. House of Representatives races have been called, giving the Republicans 220 congressional members and the Democrats 215. This balance could change depending on potential special elections if some members of the House are appointed to positions within President-Elect Trump’s administration. In this episode of the AICPA's Tax Section Odyssey podcast, Kasey Pittman, CPA, MST, Director of Tax Policy — Baker Tilly US LLP, discusses potential upcoming tax legislation for 2025, focusing on the complexities and challenges of extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and other tax provisions. What you’ll learn from this episode: The potential complexities and challenges of extending provisions of the TCJA and other tax legislation. The implications of a unified government and the reconciliation process for passing tax legislation. The financial constraints posed by the national debt and the importance of managing the deficit. The influence of individual policymakers and the importance of state and local tax (SALT) deductions. Potential revenue raisers like tariffs and ending the employee retention credit early, and their impact on the overall tax legislation. AICPA resources Planning for tax changes — CPAs need to not only brace for tax law changes such as the TCJA and expiring provisions but also be proactive in planning for them. Tax advocacy — Advocacy is a core element of our purpose and value proposition. It is a strong mechanism for promoting trust and confidence in the CPA and CGMA credentials around the world. Transcript April Walker: Hello, everyone, and welcome back to the AICPA's Tax Section Odyssey podcast, where we offer thought leadership on all things tax facing the profession. I'm April Walker, a lead manager from the tax section, and I'm here today with Kasey Pittman. Kasey is the director of Tax Policy with Baker Tilly's National Tax Office. Welcome, Kasey. Kasey Pittman: Thank you for having me. April Walker: I thought we'd spend a few minutes today setting expectations for tax legislation for 2025. First, a little bit of a spoiler, tax legislation is likely, right, but what it will actually entail is probably a lot more complicated than just a straight status quo extension of TCJA. Kasey, let's set the stage a little bit and talk about what we know about the makeup of the government and what that will mean for upcoming legislation. Kasey Pittman: I think going into the election, the vast majority of people assumed we were going to wind up in some divided government. We knew it was very likely that Republicans would capture the Senate. The math there was not very good for Democrats, just in terms of how many seats were up, and one of the Democratic-turned-independent retiring senators from a deep red state was almost a certainty to flip. I think the general thinking was that either Democrats would capture the White House or the House, and neither of those things came to fruition. We are sitting here in the 2024 election was a Republican sweep. We've done a lot of worrying about things that we can let go of, and I think probably we'll touch on that a little bit later in the podcast. But the margins aren't very big. Trump captured the White House actually by a good margin in terms of both electoral votes and total votes in the country. It looks like Senate Republicans will have the majority with a 53-47 split between Republicans and Democrats. The house is currently unknown. We know that the House has captured 218, and that's what you need for the majority. There's 435 seats. 218 is literally a one seat majority. There are five races outstanding, and probably threeish, maybe four of those are likely to go Republican. We're just waiting on final vote counts. In the House, we're looking at a few vote margin, in the Senate, we're looking at a few vote margin, and that can make legislating really difficult. One of the themes we touch on here as we go through is reconciliation. When you have a unified government, and a unified government is one where one party has both chambers in Congress, and the White House, which is what we're going into in 2025, there's this process that you can use for certain types of legislation, fiscal legislation called reconciliation. What reconciliation does is it allows you to overcome the filibuster in the Senate. You actually only need a simple majority, like 51 votes in the Senate to pass a bill, but anybody can hold up a bill with a filibuster, and you need 60 votes to end debate and force the vote on the floor. But this type of legislation doesn't require that, so we can move forward with a simple majority. However, there are a lot of limitations to the reconciliation process. Everything in a reconciliation bill has to be financial. It needs to deal with spending or revenues and it can't be incidentally related to those. That has to be its primary purpose. Tax provisions are perfect for this. It cannot increase the deficit outside of the budget window. The budget window is typically 10 years. Then inside that budget window, you can only increase or decrease the deficit by the amount in the reconciliation instructions. Reconciliation instructions are set again, by a simple majority on a budget resolution in the House and in the Senate. That number can be hard to define. We also can't touch Social Security, by the way, which is why you never see Social Security in a reconciliation bill. However, that number is really difficult to come to an agreement on sometimes, and I predict that we're going to face some issues just in getting to that budget reconciliation number before we even start to put together the bill. April Walker: That's a great summary, and we used reconciliation before to actually pass TCJA and some other legislation in the past few years, but it's still not how I grew up learning how law was passed. It's a little bit interesting and that's a great summary. Kasey, I led with saying, we don't think it's going to be a straight extension of TCJA and some of the other proposals that have been thrown out throughout campaigns. Talk through a little bit about specific provisions, what they're scoring out at, why they may or may not be included in this legislation. Again, I don't think we have to say this. This is all just speculation on our part. We will have to see what we will see once it turns to 2025. Kasey Pittman: Some of it is really speculative. We're guessing, they are educated guesses based on history and based on what influential policymakers are telling us. For many months, Republicans have really optimistically been planning for reconciliation, hoping to capture both chambers, hoping that Trump would be in the White House. They've been planning. Honestly, there's been a ton of organization inside the House Ways and Means Committee around it. What I said just a minute ago was that I think we're going to have trouble getting to that number, and here's why. If we want a blanket 10-year extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, all these taxpayer-favorable provisions, they're mostly taxpayer-favorable and we'll get into that in a second too. It's going to cost $4.6 trillion. Just for benchmarking for everybody, our national debt, which is the sum accumulation of all the deficits we've ever run right now is $35 trillion. That's really impactful because each year, honestly, I believe since Clinton, we've run at a deficit and some of the Clinton years too. But each year, since I was in middle school, we've run at a deficit, which means we're spending more money than we're bringing in, and part of the reason we're spending more money than we're bringing in is because we have to pay interest on all this debt. It's really come to a head over the last couple of years for two reasons. One, our debt skyrocketed. Recently, TCJA added to it. COVID certainly didn't help it at all. Then additionally, because we've had such high inflation, the Fed has increased interest rates and that's the rate that we pay to service the debt. In FY 24, which ended at the end of September. This year, we paid over a trillion dollars just to service our debt, not paying down our debt, just paying the interest on our debt. That's more than we spent on defense spending for the entire year. It becomes a liability if our debt is too large. Particularly, we like to compare it to our GDP. This year we ran a $1.8 trillion deficit. Over a trillion of that we could say is attributable to interest costs. Anyway, here we are. We've got $4.6 trillion to extend the TCJA. Then we've got a whole host of other campaign proposals that Trump made on the trail. No SALT, and we'll get to SALT in a second. No SALT, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security benefits. There's family caregivers credit for home caregivers. There's just a number of things, and some of them are hard to score because there's not a lot of details around the policy yet. They're more on the idea than the actual detailed policy phase at this point but those are a lot and estimates are 8-10 trillion with the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act plus all of the other campaign promises, and that is just wild as compared to our current national debt and the fiscal responsibility that I think a lot of policymakers and Americans really are focused on. Do I think that Senate Republicans and House Republicans are going to come together and say, let's write a $10 trillion bill that's not paid for at all, that increases the deficit? No, I don't. We still have deficit hawks in the Republican Party, we have people who are really concerned about it and for good reason. That's going to be a struggle. I want to say SALT is really important here. Republicans are fairly united in the general extension of Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. There's a lot of campaigning this cycle on it. It'
