The $400B Question: How AI Is Redefining Venture Capital and the Future of Startups

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Q1 2025 was the slowest fundraising quarter for consumer VC in recent memory. So what's really happening in venture capital—and how is it impacting founders in consumer, SaaS, and AI?

In this episode, Mike sits down with Peter Walker, Head of Insights at Carta, to break down what's beneath the data: 

✅ Why seed valuations are holding—but fewer deals are closing

✅ What’s behind the Series A “chasm” in consumer

✅ How mega funds are reshaping early-stage investing

✅ The rise of solo GPs and the slow decline of mid-sized funds

✅ Why LPs are getting frustrated with VC

✅ What founders risk when a mega fund passes on their Series A

✅ Why AI is warping the current “reset” in venture

✅ And what the future of venture might really look like

👉 If you're a founder, investor, or emerging manager trying to navigate the post-2021 world, this is a must-listen.

Timestamps

00:00 Intro

01:00 Why Consumer VC Has Higher Highs & Lower Lows

04:00 What Went Wrong with DTC and VC Expectations

06:00 Fund Size Creep & Why Some Firms Abandoned Consumer

10:00 The “Thesis Drift” Problem in Venture

13:00 Why Most VCs Don’t Stay in Their Zone of Genius

15:00 Mega Funds vs. Seed Funds: Optics, Pressure, and Power

21:00 Why Series A Has Become a Brick Wall

26:00 Will AI Companies Actually Be Durable?

31:00 The Rise of 3-Year Fundraising Cycles

35:00 The Future of Emerging Managers

38:00 The Squeeze on Mid-Sized Funds

40:00 The “Just a Little VC” Founder Strategy

44:00 Why Seed Valuations Haven’t Crashed

47:00 How Tariffs Are Impacting Consumer Deal Flow

51:00 Where Is the Liquidity? (& Why M&A is Surging)

54:00 Are We Actually in a Reset?

56:00 The AI Hype Cycle and OpenAI Risk

59:00 Peter’s Favorite Books (Personal & Professional)

📬 Subscribe for more founder stories & venture insights: 👉 The Consumer VC Newsletter - https://www.theconsumervc.com/

Follow Mike Gelb: Twitter / IG / TikTok → @mikegelb / @consumervc