The Contrarian Investor Podcast Nathaniel E. Baker
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- Business
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The Contrarian Investor podcast gives voice to those who challenge a prevailing narrative in financial markets. Each episode features an interview with a hedge fund manager, investor, economist or other market participant. The goal is to educate all listeners with an interest in asset allocation and ultimately to provide actionable ideas to the institutional investor community.
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Lessons From Financial History: Mark Higgins
This podcast episode was recorded Friday, March 1, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers on March 6. For more information on premium memberships visit our Substack.
Mark Higgins, author of the new book, Investing in Financial History, joins the podcast to discuss lessons from the past and what period is the most appropriate point of comparison to today's market environment.
Content Highlights
What period from the past compares closest to the one we're living through now? It's a combination of several... (1:56); The last time the US -- and Federal Reserve -- battled serious inflation was from 1965 to the early 1980s. Here there are several parallels to today's age... (4:36); The Fed appeared to turn more accommodative in December and January. This may have been a mistake (9:04); Financial history is very much a history of panics, but there has not been a major bank run in the US since the Great Depression (11:51); Portfolios have become increasingly complex without proper consideration of cost -- and risks (15:40); Decentralized currencies aren't new and in fact once characterized the US dollar -- and for the same reason (fear of central banks and fiat currency, etc). That didn't end well... (18:06); Background on the guest and how he came to write the book (22:05); Bubbles and their challenges. Some commonalities include the media as trailing indicator... (27:17); The 180 degree turn on public debt by US public officials (29:36); The US dollar will likely be replaced as global reserve currency one day (33:25). More From the Guest
Website: EnlightenedInvestor.com; Order the book on Amazon.com; LinkedIn: @MarkHiggins. -
Time to Get Defensive, Avoid 'Magnificent 7' Tech Stocks: Ted Oakley, Oxbow Advisors
This podcast was recorded on Feb. 15, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers that same day (without ads, natch). For more information on premium subscriptions, visit our Substack or Supercast.
Ted Oakley, founder of Austin, Tex.-based Oxbow Advisors, joins the podcast to discuss his views on markets and the economy and why this is a time to get defensive with one's portfolio.
Content Highlights
The stock market highs for the year will be set during the first quarter (1:47); "There are things that people don't see" (or at least don't publicize) that are pointing to a slowdown in the economy (3:08); One of these is the US consumer, who is now borrowing to finance purchases (4:59); Another is commercial real estate, which is just starting to rear its head... (6:05); Interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve may be further away than realized due to inflation risks (8:22); Oxbow has been invested in 'Magnificent 7' stocks Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL) for some time, but has been trimming these holdings and is certainly not looking to add more. But certain defensive sectors got cheap recently... (10:48); Background on the guest (23:07); What previous period in investment history is today's market most reminiscent of? Bulls will not like this answer... (29:32). More from the guest
Website: OxbowAdvisors.com; Twitter: @Oxbow_Advisors; YouTube; LinkedIn: Oxbow_Advisors. -
US Economic Outlook 'Surprisingly Optimistic': Scott Colbert, Commerce Trust Co.
Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss his "surprisingly optimistic" outlook for the US economy in 2024.
This podcast episode was recorded Jan. 30, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber through our Substack or Supercast pages.
Content Highlights
The outlook for the economy is surprisingly optimistic given the set-up going in to last year (1:30); The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates for some time (2:39); Can stocks continue to advance without rate cuts? The outlook for small caps and mid-caps... (6:35); The outlook for bonds: surprisingly constructive even if there aren't rate cuts right away (10:05); How the economy is breaking down geographically in the US... (17:01); Commercial real estate is 'the canary in the coal mine' but nowhere near as pervasive as subprime residential pre-2008... (24:36); The guest's take on the impact of this year's US presidential election (28:15); Top concerns start with deficit spending... (33:23); An economist's take on the AI revolution (39:28). More on the Guest
Website: CommerceTrustCompany.com; Published insights from Commerce Trust Co. -
Markets Face Headwinds in First Half of 2024: Barry Knapp, Ironsides Macroeconomics
This episode was recorded on Jan. 8, 2024, and made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or announcements. For details on how to become a premium subscriber (it's very easy), visit our Substack or Supercast.
Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his outlook for the economy and markets in 2024.
Content Highlights
Knapp's outlook for 2023 played out until September. Then the Fed changed the rules of the game somewhat and markets now face a difficult period... (3:29); Investors are expecting a recovery in earnings, which may be hard to achieve (7:00); The drop in inflation can be traced to one cause: a deflationary shock in goods prices (8:57); How the Fed can justify interest rates as soon as March... (11:36); Why bonds haven't continued to rally this year (16:58); The Fed will cut to 4% by year-end and the yield curve should dis-invert with 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.5% (22:06); Fed independence is taken for granted. That may be about to change... (28:35); Only four occasions post WWII have seen yield curve inversions this deep. All have led to major recessions... (36:40); How do stocks look in this whole picture (40:31) More About the Guest
Website and newsletter: IronsidesMacro.substack.com; Twitter: @BarryKnapp. -
Risks Point to Downside in 2024: Kyrill Asatur, Centerfin
This podcast episode was recorded Dec. 20, 2023 and made available exclusively -- without ads or announcements -- for premium subscribers that same day. This is just one of the benefits of becoming a premium subscriber. The others are detailed on our Supercast or Substack pages.
Kyrill Asatur, co-founder and CEO of Centerfin, re-joins the podcast to discuss his views going into 2024 and the likelihood there won't be a 'soft landing' for the economy next year.
Content Highlights
Consensus estimates for 2024 are going to be wrong, just like they were for this year and every year before it (2:12); Coming in to this year the banking sector was a concern, though as it turned out for the wrong reasons (4:39); The catalyst for the reversal this fall and the new, dovish Fed (7:26); The contrarian call is that they're won't be a soft landing -- or a stock market crash (11:44); Possible explanation for the 'Fed pivot' (16:48); How the guest is allocating assets going into 2024 (23:56); Artificial Intelligence (AI) discussion (29:02). More on Kyrill Asatur and Centerfin:
Website: Centerfin.co; Twitter: @WallStHobbes; LinkedIn page; Facebook: CenterfinHQ; Instagram: @CenterfinHQ. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions. -
Short-Term Treasuries the Place to Be: Jared Dillian, Daily Dirt Nap
This podcast episode was recorded Nov. 29, 2023 and made available to premium subscribers the following day. To become a premium subscriber, sign up through our Substack or Supercast.
Jared Dillian of the Daily Dirt Nap joins the podcast to discuss his bullish views on short-term Treasuries and less optimistic outlook for the US economy. He also discusses his work as an author and views on disparate issues facing society.
Note: The podcast episode contains some mature language.
Content Highlights
The 'soft landing' scenario appears to have become the base case. Dillian doesn't quite buy that (1:37); To be bullish on short-term Treasuries one needs to believe the Fed is going to cut rates. That is imminent (4:26); Addressing the inflation bogeyman. The risk has maybe receded over the short term, but what about a return over the medium term? There is historical precedent for this from the last time inflation was a serious force in the US... (9:37); Background on the guest and a broad discussion of his time at Lehman Brothers (including its downfall), working on Wall Street, career paths, education, and more...(15:48) More on the Guest
Website: DailyDirtNap.com; Twitter: @DailyDirtNap; Facebook: JaredDillianAuthor; Pre-order his book on Amazon. Mention this podcast for a generous discount on the Daily Dirt Nap!
Customer Reviews
Good guests. Good insight. Really annoying announcement/introduction voice.
I learn a little...or a lot....of something from each guest on this podcast, but I am incredibly annoyed by the voice that does the introduction and special announcements.
Keeps me up to date on what is happening
Contrarian Investor Media is a great briefing to start your morning with. I have become much more aware of the economic data releases that could move the market. Nathaniel does a great job of giving you context around how much the market might care about certain data releases. If you want to get a better idea of what’s happening in the markets, check this podcast out!
Also, guest interviews are great— the guests are always good and Nathaniel asks great questions. Great podcast all around.
Not contrarian
Bringing somebody from etoro to picture rosy days ahead for them and crypto is not contrarian.