Alpha Exchange

Dean Curnutt
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The Alpha Exchange is a podcast series launched by Dean Curnutt to explore topics in financial markets, risk management and capital allocation in the alternatives industry. Our in depth discussions with highly established industry professionals seek to uncover the nuanced and complex interactions between economic, monetary, financial, regulatory and geopolitical sources of risk. We aim to learn from the perspective our guests can bring with respect to the history of financial and business cycles, promoting a better understanding among listeners as to how prior periods provide important context to present day dynamics. The “price of risk” is an important topic. Here we engage experts in their assessment of risk premium levels in the context of uncertainty. Is the level of compensation attractive? Because Central Banks have played so important a role in markets post crisis, our discussions sometimes aim to better understand the evolution of monetary policy and the degree to which the real and financial economy will be impacted. An especially important area of focus is on derivative products and how they interact with risk taking and carry dynamics. Our conversations seek to enlighten listeners, for example, as to the factors that promoted the February melt-down of the VIX complex. We do NOT ask our guests for their political opinions. We seek a better understanding of the market impact of regulatory change, election outcomes and events of geopolitical consequence. Our discussions cover markets from a macro perspective with an assessment of risk and opportunity across asset classes. Within equity markets, we may explore the relative attractiveness of sectors but will NOT discuss single stocks.

  1. 2D AGO

    Louis Vincent Gave, Founding Partner & Chief Executive Officer, Gavekal Research

    It was a pleasure to welcome Louis Gave, the Founding Partner and CEO of Gavekal, back to the Alpha Exchange. Our discussion centers on what he describes as one of the most consequential and underappreciated macro developments today: the mispricing—and now the policy shift—of the Chinese renminbi. Louis is quite bullish on China. Louis argues that for much of the past decade, China has acted as a powerful deflationary force on the global economy. In response to US trade restrictions, Chinese policymakers redirected domestic savings away from real estate and toward industrial capacity. This dual dynamic—collapsing real-estate activity alongside surging industrial investment—produced a deflationary impulse that many underestimated. A central feature of this adjustment was a deliberately undervalued currency. Despite large trade surpluses, the renminbi remained weak even as inflation diverged sharply between China and the United States. Louise describes this as one of the clearest examples of a “wrong price” in global markets, particularly when measured against purchasing-power indicators such as housing, transportation, and services. The discussion highlights a notable inflection point: the renminbi has recently begun to strengthen, signaling a shift in policy stance. According to Louis, this change has important implications for global asset prices. A strengthening currency in China alters incentives for capital deployment, challenges the appeal of holding US dollar cash, and reinforces broader reflationary trends already visible across commodities, yield curves, and financial assets. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Louis Gave.

    52 min

  2. 6D AGO

    Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy, PIMCO

    It is busy time, to say the least, for Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy at PIMCO. Today’s markets are grappling with vast uncertainties…in US fiscal policy, in Fed independence and leadership, in geopolitics, and in global trade. Libby is charged with helping both the clients and risk-takers of PIMCO better understand the implications of policy that is changing rapidly. Through her conversations with institutional, retail, and international clients, she outlines how uncertainty around US policy has become a central driver of investor concern early in 2026. Our discussion highlights how recent geopolitical developments — including tensions with Europe, rhetoric around Greenland, and renewed trade disputes — have amplified questions around US credibility and global leadership. Throughout the conversation, Libby frames the current environment as one in which policy volatility, rather than policy outcomes alone, is shaping investor behavior. Tariffs, fiscal deficits, and election-driven incentives have created a backdrop where markets must continuously reassess tail risks. We explore the challenge of reigning in US entitlements. Here, she describes two potential forcing mechanisms: bond market pressure or looming entitlement shortfalls. While the so-called bond vigilantes have periodically re-emerged, she notes that market selloffs have thus far been contained, suggesting that investors continue to grant the U.S. substantial runway. At the same time, projected shortfalls in the Trust Fund later this decade represent a political and economic inflection point that may eventually compel action. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Libby Cantrill.

    50 min

  3. JAN 27

    GME 5 Years Later…Lessons and Threats

    Five years ago, on January 27th, 2021, the frenzied buying and speculation in Gamestop hit its apex. In this short podcast, I look back on one of the more fascinating, and dare I say, dangerous, risk events in modern day markets. The stock was subject to an outright speculative attack. But not the kind most CEOs complain about. This was not Soros taking down the British pound in 1992. This was a retail army of Reddit bandits whose buying power was nothing individually, but everything collectively. This was an attack not by a short seller, but against one. We learn a great deal about markets by studying periods when things run amuck. GME event is one of them, the most intense “stock up, vol up” episode in memory.

    23 min

  4. JAN 26

    Alex Urdea, Founder and CIO, Deep Ocean Partners

    It was a pleasure to welcome Alex Urdea, Founder and CIO of Deep Ocean Partners to the Alpha Exchange. Alex traces his career from credit derivatives trading at a large bank to a risk management function at a hedge fund focused on distressed investing to ultimately building an asset-backed private credit platform focused on smaller, less trafficked segments of the lending universe. The conversation centers on how regulatory changes following the Global Financial Crisis, prolonged periods of low interest rates, and shifting investor preferences have reshaped where and how credit risk is priced.   Alex describes how traditional public credit markets, including leveraged loans and high yield, have increasingly compressed spreads while loosening covenants, reducing compensation for bearing risk. In contrast, private credit has emerged as an alternative channel for borrowers unable to access bank balance sheets, particularly fast-growing businesses that are asset-rich but cash-flow constrained. He emphasizes that credit underwriting remains fundamentally about downside protection, liquidation value, and recovery — principles shaped by his experience in stress, distress, and complex capital structures.   A  theme central to our discussion is the distinction between risk monitoring and risk management. Alex explains how Deep Ocean combines asset-backed lending with data connectivity and real-time monitoring to identify potential issues earlier in the life of a loan, rather than relying solely on periodic reporting or mark-to-market signals. The conversation also explores how macro forces — including rate shocks, tariffs, and supply-chain disruptions — can impose themselves even on carefully underwritten credits, reinforcing the importance of portfolio construction and diversification.   I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Alex Urdea.

    50 min

  5. JAN 15

    Andrew Lapthorne, Global Head of Quantitative Research, Societe Generale

    Today’s market landscape is defined by extremes that challenge conventional portfolio construction. A small group of mega-cap stocks now represents an unprecedented share of index weight, profit generation, and capital spending, raising important questions about valuation, diversification, and risk concentration.   With this in mind, it was great to have Andrew Lapthorne, Global Head of Quantitative Research at Société Générale, back on the Alpha Exchange. Drawing on long-run valuation distributions and profitability data, Andrew examines whether today’s market qualifies as a valuation bubble, not through narratives, but through measurable historical comparisons. His analysis highlights that while headline index multiples appear defensible due to strong profits among a narrow group of companies, the average stock is more expensive than during prior bubble periods, including the late-1990s technology cycle.   Our discussion also examines how passive investing and benchmark constraints have altered market behavior. With capital increasingly flowing through index vehicles, Andrew argues that valuation changes now affect entire indices rather than discrete groups of stocks, limiting opportunities for rotation into “cheap” segments. This dynamic has substantially increased tracking error for active managers and reinforced concentration, even among investors who recognize valuation risk but remain bound to benchmark exposure.   I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Andrew Lapthorne.

    57 min

  6. 12/31/2025

    Closing Thoughts on 2025

    As I share my closing thoughts on 2025, I want to look back with an eye towards pointing out this year’s unique characteristics from a market risk perspective. I start this exercise by highlighting what I consider to be 2025’s three most interesting days from a vol and risk perspective: 1) the April 7th roller-coaster in the VIX  2) the September 10th surge in ORCL and  3) the October 21st melt-down in the GLD. Each of these helps us better understand some of the forces at work in today’s market. Next, I explore two important themes and their implications. First, the “stock up, vol up” dynamic that is increasingly common among stocks, even mega-caps. Here, the market assigns a higher implied volatility when pricing options on stocks that have often surged in value. It speaks to FOMO and a winner-take-all notion in which stocks are often treated as options. Second, I discuss the incredibly low level of both realized and implied correlation among stocks in the SPX. I consider this a risk hiding in plain sight and something that may be leading investors to underestimate the true level of risk they are taking. I thank you for being a listener this year and wish you a fantastic 2026.

    33 min

  7. 12/19/2025

    Ian Harnett, Co-Founder and Chief Investment Strategist, Absolute Strategy Research

    It was a pleasure to welcome Ian Harnett, co-founder and Chief Investment Strategist at Absolute Strategy Research, to the Alpha Exchange. Our discussion explores how long periods of low volatility and abundant liquidity can quietly allow systemic risks to accumulate outside the traditional banking system.   Drawing on lessons from the Global Financial Crisis, Ian explains why today’s financial system—now dominated by non-banks rather than banks—requires a different risk framework.  While post-GFC regulation focused on large banks and insurers, much of the system’s leverage and liquidity transformation has migrated toward pension funds, private equity, insurance companies, and private credit vehicles. In the U.S. alone, roughly three-quarters of private-sector financial assets are now controlled by non-banks, reshaping how shocks can propagate through markets. A key theme of the discussion is that systemic risk is multiplicative rather than additive.   Ian argues that past crises were often triggered not by the largest institutions, but by smaller nodes in the system that proved critical once stress emerged. Today, he highlights the growing role of private-equity-backed insurers, which tend to hold riskier assets, maintain lower capital buffers, and allocate more heavily to private credit—an area that remains largely illiquid and difficult to mark to market. Ian’s work emphasizes cash flow as a central lens for assessing vulnerability.   I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Ian Harnett.

    55 min

  8. 12/16/2025

    Kumaran Vijayakumar, Co-Founder and CEO, DataDock Solutions

    Kumaran Vijayakumar has spent his career in the equity derivatives market, first as an exotics trader and later in running large risk-taking desks in listed and OTC options. Now, the CEO of DataDock Solutions, a firm he Co-Founded in 2018, Kumaran and his team are developing analytical tools that allow sell-side flow desks to better understand the risks they take and clients they take it for. Our discussion explores the challenges inherent in evaluating client flow, and how data-centric infrastructure has changed the way risk is assessed.   With the premise that “what you can measure you can manage and improve”, we discuss DataDock’s efforts to build tools capable of ingesting large-scale trade history and simulating outcomes at the most granular level. In equity derivatives, where trades move quickly and visibility is often instantaneous, desks have historically made decisions based on memory and anecdotal assessments of “good” versus “bad” flow. Kumaran describes this as a space where information is abundant, but structured insight often lags execution speed.   Our discussion highlights a key theme: not all flow that loses money is detrimental, and not all flow that is profitable is necessarily strategic. Instead, Kumaran notes that client value emerges when one analyzes trade behavior across time, including delta hedge quality, volume risk transfer, roll probability, expected event-driven distribution, and the role of flow as portfolio offset rather than standalone P&L.   I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Kumaran Vijayakumar.

    52 min
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Trailer

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About

The Alpha Exchange is a podcast series launched by Dean Curnutt to explore topics in financial markets, risk management and capital allocation in the alternatives industry. Our in depth discussions with highly established industry professionals seek to uncover the nuanced and complex interactions between economic, monetary, financial, regulatory and geopolitical sources of risk. We aim to learn from the perspective our guests can bring with respect to the history of financial and business cycles, promoting a better understanding among listeners as to how prior periods provide important context to present day dynamics. The “price of risk” is an important topic. Here we engage experts in their assessment of risk premium levels in the context of uncertainty. Is the level of compensation attractive? Because Central Banks have played so important a role in markets post crisis, our discussions sometimes aim to better understand the evolution of monetary policy and the degree to which the real and financial economy will be impacted. An especially important area of focus is on derivative products and how they interact with risk taking and carry dynamics. Our conversations seek to enlighten listeners, for example, as to the factors that promoted the February melt-down of the VIX complex. We do NOT ask our guests for their political opinions. We seek a better understanding of the market impact of regulatory change, election outcomes and events of geopolitical consequence. Our discussions cover markets from a macro perspective with an assessment of risk and opportunity across asset classes. Within equity markets, we may explore the relative attractiveness of sectors but will NOT discuss single stocks.

Information

  • Creator
    Dean Curnutt
  • Years Active
    2018 - 2026
  • Episodes
    245
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 512774
  • Show Website
    Alpha Exchange

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