Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
  • 4.8 (576)
  • INVESTING
  • UPDATED WEEKLY

Discover the fascinating world of investing with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and his remarkable co-hosts. Each week, we bring you compelling conversations with legendary investors, leading economists, masterful traders, and forward-thinking thought leaders. From Trend Following and Global Macro to Geo-Politics, Commodities, Quant Investing, Crypto, and Volatility, we uncover the strategies, stories, and lessons behind their success. Gain actionable insights from industry veterans as we celebrate their achievements and learn from their challenges. Stay ahead in the ever-evolving landscape of investing - tune in weekly and elevate your financial knowledge. For the latest episodes and expert insights, visit https://toptradersunplugged.com

  1. SI378: When Prices Stop Making Sense ft. Mark Rzepczynski

    14H AGO

    SI378: When Prices Stop Making Sense ft. Mark Rzepczynski

    This episode examines markets through the lens of uncertainty rather than prediction. As the Federal Reserve delivers a rate cut amid dissent and conflicting signals, Alan and Mark explore what it means for systematic investors navigating noisy data, fragile liquidity and shifting regimes. The conversation moves from Fed credibility and term premia to bubbles, leverage and the limits of valuation in an environment shaped by narratives as much as fundamentals. Along the way, they return to a core question at the heart of systematic investing: when uncertainty rises and explanations multiply, should prices remain the final arbiter of risk, signal and portfolio design? ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor series 00:23 - Market context and recent CTA performance 02:41 - Initial reactions to the Fed decision and rate cut 03:12 - A messy Fed and the problem of dissenting signals 06:48 - Inflation, growth projections and policy uncertainty 08:31 - Signal versus noise in systematic trading models 11:22 - Employment data revisions and confidence in fundamentals 13:10 - Bond valuation, term premia and the question of safe assets 16:30 - Fiscal dominance, inflation risk and portfolio fragility 19:29 - Prices versus value and the limits of interpretation 22:47 - Narratives, reflexivity and momentum in markets 28:07...

    1h 3m
  2. TTU151: What Comes After 60/40? Systematic Thinking, BlackRock Style ft. Jeff Rosenberg

    3D AGO

    TTU151: What Comes After 60/40? Systematic Thinking, BlackRock Style ft. Jeff Rosenberg

    Niels and Alan sit down with BlackRock’s Jeff Rosenberg to examine how the post Covid shift from too little to too much inflation is reshaping portfolios. Jeff explains why bond and equity correlations have changed, why fixed income is drifting back toward income rather than pure diversification, and how fiscal pressure and soft financial repression may influence rates. They explore what systematic really means at BlackRock, from trend ETFs and defensive alpha to market breadth and execution. The conversation ends with the rise of liquid alternatives, whole portfolio thinking and growing equity concentration risk. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Jeff on LinkedIn. Find out more about DUNN Capital Episode Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction, Jeff’s role at BlackRock Systematic and setting the agenda 04:09 - From too little to too much inflation and the end of divine coincidence 09:32 - Wage dynamics, “prices are too high” and persistent, not resurgent, inflation 14:48 - Bond equity correlation, the changing role of fixed income and income versus diversification 19:55 - Fiscal dominance, debt loads and the risk of soft financial repression 25:21 - What “systematic” means at BlackRock across beta, factors and pure alpha 30:44 - Trend as a systematic return stream and why...

    1h 14m
  3. SI377: What's New in SG Indices in 2026? + The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio ft. Alan Dunne

    DEC 6

    SI377: What's New in SG Indices in 2026? + The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio ft. Alan Dunne

    Niels and Alan explore how a fragile macro regime reshapes systematic investing, from a politicised Fed succession to widening cracks in a debt-laden, equity-dependent economy. A shifting bond landscape, rising capital demands from AI and renewed tariff risks challenge the old 60/40 orthodoxy. Listener questions on US policy shocks and the Yen carry trade open a deeper look at when trend helps and when it hurts. The episode culminates in a world exclusive of SocGen's 2026 index changes and the first public reveal of Alan’s new paper: The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio, for genuinely resilient, opportunity-aware global wealth compounding intelligently, prudently over the decade ahead. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Voiceover and introduction to the Systematic Investor Series 00:23 - Niels and Alan open, what is on their radar this week 01:27 - Fed succession as a political risk factor and betting markets 03:33 - Crypto moves, Vanguard’s platform shift and MicroStrategy index pressure 05:53 - Listener questions: can constant US policy shocks break trend? 06:33 - Trouble for trend or just another regime to endure and adapt to 08:55 - Short-term CTAs, Liberation Day and when speed becomes a handicap 11:11 - How CTAs are positioned for a yen carry unwind and JGB nuances 12:16 - November trend update, five straight positive months and short-term pain 13:35 - World exclusive: new SocGen CTA and...

    1h 9m
  4. ALO32: AI Booms, Fiscal Strains and the New Macro Regime ft. Joe Little

    DEC 3

    ALO32: AI Booms, Fiscal Strains and the New Macro Regime ft. Joe Little

    Alan Dunne speaks with HSBC Asset Management’s Global Chief Strategist, Joe Little, about what happens when the old macro rules stop working. Joe traces the shift from a demand led, low inflation world to a supply constrained regime of sticky and spiky prices, where 2 percent becomes a floor rather than a target. He explains the “reverse bond conundrum,” rising term premia and the quiet return of fiscal dominance. The conversation explores AI as investment boom, not yet productivity cure, the maturing of emerging markets, the fate of the dollar and how to build truly multipolar portfolios. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Joe on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening clip, long bonds misbehaving and the “reverse bond yield conundrum” 00:55 - Introduction and risk disclosure for Top Traders Unplugged listeners 01:50 - Joe’s path from economist to global chief strategist and house view author 05:16 - From post crisis disinflation to a supply constrained, sticky inflation regime 10:32 - Why 2 percent looks like a floor, tariffs, profits and delayed inflation effects 13:34 - 2026 baseline: muddle through growth, positive policy impulse and inflation nuance 16:42 - AI as capital expenditure boom, echoes of the 1990s and the missing productivity surge 20:40 - China and Asia: regionalisation, industrial policy and an exit from...

    1h 5m
  5. SI376: What They’re Only Now Starting to See ft. Andrew Beer

    NOV 29

    SI376: What They’re Only Now Starting to See ft. Andrew Beer

    In this week’s Systematic Investor episode, Niels and Andrew Beer explore how a broken 60/40 paradigm is forcing wealth managers into a new world of “other” diversifiers. Andrew reflects on the Goldman Sachs report about private wealth flows, the rise of liquid alts and why big houses are suddenly launching trend ETFs. The conversation dives into replication versus traditional CTAs, the true cost of complexity, and Simplify’s new index-based product built on Andrew’s strategy. Along the way they debate pods, Bitcoin, and Andrew’s evolving metaphor of managed futures as a cloudy, but occasionally crystal-clear, macro crystal ball. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro and Thanksgiving reflections, gratitude and mood after the holiday 01:14 - Goldman report: trillions from wealthy investors and a seismic shift away from 60/40 03:38 - Why bonds stopped diversifying and the growth of the “other” bucket in portfolios 05:44 - Liquid alts vs illiquid alts and the timing of big firms launching trend ETFs 08:25 - Odd Lots, pods and Dalio’s skepticism on multi-strats’ future 09:22 - Bitcoin’s volatile run and rumors of a manipulated pullback 10:59 - November performance: zigzags in trend indices and short-term traders’ struggles 12:55 - How DBMF positioned: concentration, short yen, euro pain and being contrarian post “Liberation Day” 16:05 - Are we still “replication”? Alternative data beta, tracking error and what’s really...

    1h 6m
  6. IL43: The Land Trap: How Property Shapes Power ft. Mike Bird

    NOV 26

    IL43: The Land Trap: How Property Shapes Power ft. Mike Bird

    In today’s episode we talk about the world’s oldest, and still most important asset: land. Our guest is the Economist’s Wall Street Editor Mike Bird. Mike is the author of a newly released book The Land Trap: A New History of the World’s Oldest Asset. We discuss the properties that make land unique as an asset and why it serves as collateral for almost two-thirds of all bank loans, making it the backbone of the world’s money supply. Mike explains what the “land trap” means and why China is caught in its grip like no other country. We also discuss the one country in the world that seems to have escaped the trap and whether their lessons can be applied elsewhere.  ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Mike on X and read his book. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening and setup 00:00:49 - Disclaimer and show introduction 00:01:45 - The premise: land as humanity’s oldest asset 00:04:18 - Defining the “land trap” through Hong Kong’s model 00:09:01 - Three defining traits: scarcity, immovability, endurance 00:18:17 - Why technology can’t replace geography 00:23:29 - Land as collateral and the rise of...

    1 hr
  7. SI375: CTAs After the Walls Come Down ft. Rob Carver

    NOV 22

    SI375: CTAs After the Walls Come Down ft. Rob Carver

    Rob Carver returns for a conversation that quietly questions the foundations. Is trend following an edge - or just a reward for holding discomfort others can’t? From the role of skew in shaping outcomes to the blind spots in most robustness frameworks, Rob and Niels takes you through the mechanics with uncommon clarity. Listener questions open up the deeper layers: when volatility targeting helps, when it hurts, and why Sharpe Ratios can mislead. They end with a shift that may matter more than it seems: CalPERS moving to a Total Portfolio Approach. Not just a new framework - potentially a new lane for CTAs. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro and welcome to the Systematic Investor Series 00:23 - Catching up with Rob and a cold, sunny UK 01:35 - Is trend following an edge or a risk premium? 03:38 - Overcomplicating edges and the Cliff Asness perspective 04:30 - Renaissance’s bad month and how even legends struggle 09:25 - Managed futures ETFs, performance narratives, and media framing 11:22 - AI, Nvidia and what an “AI bubble” might mean for trends 13:10 - Trend barometer, current positioning and where returns come from 18:35 - George’s question: robustness testing, overfitting and multiple testing 25:45 - How often to re-fit models and when to leave parameters alone 27:44 - Frederik’s question: intraday versus end of day for medium term...

    1h 17m
  8. UGO08: The Coming Hunger Games for Global Savings ft. David Dredge

    NOV 19

    UGO08: The Coming Hunger Games for Global Savings ft. David Dredge

    Recorded live from the Cboe RMC floor in Munich, Cem Karsan sits down with volatility veteran David Dredge for a deep exploration of what truly drives risk. From the crash of 1987 to today’s era of correlation, Dredge reframes volatility not as fear, but freedom. Through his F1 “brakes” analogy, he reveals why protection enables performance, and how convexity builds resilience in an uncertain world. Together, they trace the arc from structured-product flows to demographics, fiscal repression, and the coming global “Hunger Games” for savings. A masterclass in compounding through uncertainty. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow David on X. Episode TimeStamps: 00:01:29 – Cem introduces David Dredge live from Munich. 00:03:28 – Dredge recalls arriving in Asia before the 1987 crash. 00:05:06 – The F1 brakes analogy—why protection enables speed. 00:07:45 – The “preserve and enhance” portfolio that defied 65/35. 00:10:57 – Rethinking 60/40 and the illusion of diversification. 00:14:33 – Cem on $500 trillion of correlated assets. 00:17:22 – Why covered calls lose to convexity over time. 00:19:14 – Misreading 2022: correlation, not equities, was the risk. 00:21:20 – When diversification fails, only convexity endures. 00:27:13 – Value investing in volatility—buying what others suppress. 00:37:48 – Euro...

    1h 4m
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About

Discover the fascinating world of investing with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and his remarkable co-hosts. Each week, we bring you compelling conversations with legendary investors, leading economists, masterful traders, and forward-thinking thought leaders. From Trend Following and Global Macro to Geo-Politics, Commodities, Quant Investing, Crypto, and Volatility, we uncover the strategies, stories, and lessons behind their success. Gain actionable insights from industry veterans as we celebrate their achievements and learn from their challenges. Stay ahead in the ever-evolving landscape of investing - tune in weekly and elevate your financial knowledge. For the latest episodes and expert insights, visit https://toptradersunplugged.com

Information

  • Creator
    Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
  • Years Active
    2014 - 2025
  • Episodes
    886
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Copyright 2025 CMC AG - This content does not constitute financial advice and is for educational purposes only. The content can not be used for commercial use without written permission from CMC AG.
  • Show Website
    Top Traders Unplugged

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