738 episodes

Explore the captivating world of investing with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and his incredible co-hosts. Each week, we delve into engaging conversations with renowned investors, top economists, expert traders, and visionary thought leaders. Our discussions cover Trend Following, Global Macro, Geo-Politics, Commodities, Quant Investing, Crypto, Volatility, and much more. Unlock valuable insights from seasoned professionals, celebrating their triumphs and learning from their obstacles. Tune in every week to stay informed and inspired in the dynamic world of trend following, global macro and investing. For the latest episodes and blog posts, visit https://toptradersunplugged.com

Top Traders Unplugged Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

    • Business
    • 4.8 • 513 Ratings

Explore the captivating world of investing with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and his incredible co-hosts. Each week, we delve into engaging conversations with renowned investors, top economists, expert traders, and visionary thought leaders. Our discussions cover Trend Following, Global Macro, Geo-Politics, Commodities, Quant Investing, Crypto, Volatility, and much more. Unlock valuable insights from seasoned professionals, celebrating their triumphs and learning from their obstacles. Tune in every week to stay informed and inspired in the dynamic world of trend following, global macro and investing. For the latest episodes and blog posts, visit https://toptradersunplugged.com

    GM65: Why Fed Will Raise Rates Next Year ft. Adam Posen

    GM65: Why Fed Will Raise Rates Next Year ft. Adam Posen

    In this episode, Alan Dunne welcomes former central banker and current President of the Peterson Institute, Adam Posen, to discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy. Posen explains why he believes markets are mistaken in expecting rate cuts next year and identifies the key factors driving stronger economic growth. They explore global central banking and monetary policy, examining the successes and challenges of inflation targeting, the models used by central banks, and the most important variables to monitor for policy decisions. Posen also discusses why inflation targeting may become more challenging in the coming years and argues that less forward guidance from policymakers could be beneficial. They discuss the outlook for fiscal policy for the next administration and Posen explains that while a fiscal crisis is not his base case, he foresees significant upside risks to bond yields in the coming years.
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    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Alan on Twitter.
    Follow Adam on Twitter.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    02:10 - Introduction to Adam Posen
    05:45 - Was it all about luck?
    07:40 - Was the Covid19 period handled the wrong way economically?
    12:06 - Are we going into more challenging times for inflation targeting?
    13:56 - The political pressure on central banks
    16:48 - The challenges of inflation targeting
    23:47 - A micro-managing nightmare?
    29:50 - What are the

    • 1 hr 2 min
    SI304: Taking the Trend Following Temperature with Man AHL ft. Graham Robertson

    SI304: Taking the Trend Following Temperature with Man AHL ft. Graham Robertson

    Today, we are joined by our special guest, Graham Robertson who is Partner and Head of Client Portfolio Management at Man AHL, for a wide-ranging conversation about trend following. We discuss how trend following has stood out in recent years and why April 2024 was especially noteworthy, and how Graham views the current interest from investors around the world. We also address to what extent trend following should play a role in your portfolio and what type of environment tends to influence overall performance for the industry based on Principal Component Analysis. Lastly, we discuss how AI might impact the trend following industry, and whether Trend Followers have started saying goodbye to the short fixed income traded, that lasted for more than 2 years.
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    EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
    -----

    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Graham on LinkedIn.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:56 - Introduction to Graham Robertson
    03:40 - How Graham came across trend following
    04:56 - Graham's observations in 2024 so far
    08:03 - Is China becoming an easier market to trade?
    09:01 - How to deal with uncomfortable markets
    11:17 - Why April was an interesting month for trend followers
    14:54 - A discussion on trend following performance
    20:45 - Industry performance update
    22:03 - How Man AHL assess the interest in trend following and CTA strategies
    26:37 - Rating the climate for interest in trend following
    31:46 - Which regions or countries are most interested...

    • 1 hr 7 min
    OI09: The Key to Trend Following Success ft. Cole Wilcox

    OI09: The Key to Trend Following Success ft. Cole Wilcox

    In this episode, Moritz Seibert and Cole Wilcox from Longboard Asset Management speak about systematic trend following strategies applied to single stocks, including the many advantages compared to long only buy and hold, but also some of the challenges and technical details related to portfolio construction. Cole is the founder and CEO of Longboard Asset Management, an Arizona-based alternatives fund management firm. He explains why participating in some of the big outlier price moves in mid and small cap stocks is as important as cutting out the many stock which don’t perform, in other words, avoiding the failures while having a systematic process that allows for taking part in the upside are both important.
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    EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
    -----

    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Moritz on Twitter.
    Follow Cole on LinkedIn.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    02:07 - Introduction to Cole Wilcox and Longboard Asset Management
    08:27 - Diving deep into the strategy
    10:45 - What drives the alpha of their strategy?
    15:41 - Understanding your investor base
    18:07 - Understanding their correlation
    19:31 - Thoughts on including international stocks
    24:15 - Do they fully fund their portfolio?
    27:52 - How they approach dividends
    29:14 - Do they loan out stocks?
    30:34 - Did they ever trade single stock futures in the Bond Chicago Exchange?
    32:36 - How many

    • 49 min
    SI303: The Unstoppable Volpocalypse ft. Cem Karsan & Alan Dunne

    SI303: The Unstoppable Volpocalypse ft. Cem Karsan & Alan Dunne

    Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne in this week’s episode to discuss global macro developments and key events to monitor in the coming months. They explore the shifting market microstructure and how volatility supply from structured products is impacting dispersion, correlation, and the value of breadth as a market indicator. Cem outlines his outlook on volatility trading for the coming months, highlighting key dates in the options calendar that may become focal points as the year progresses. They also examine the wealth effect resulting from rising stock prices, discussing how this reflexive process influences market dynamics and what it means for identifying potential turning points for equities. Finally, they delve into the elections in the UK, France, and the US, consider the likelihood of Biden being replaced and discuss to what the extent the market is pricing in a Trump victory.
    -----
    EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
    -----

    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Alan on Twitter.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:59 - Industry performance update
    06:30 - The outlook for volatility supply
    09:01 - Braking the volatility cascade
    11:47 - Is the Yen in trouble?
    13:51 - Is bread becoming unreliable?
    19:57 - When does it all end?
    24:38 - What should you monitor as an investor?
    27:46 - When will we begin to see increased risk?
    33:09 - What will drive the increasing volatility?
    35:10 - The election from a volatility perspective
    42:46 - Volatility from a market pricing...

    • 1 hr 1 min
    GM64: Why the Economy is Vulnerable to Recession ft. Claudia Sahm

    GM64: Why the Economy is Vulnerable to Recession ft. Claudia Sahm

    Alan Dunne is joined by Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors and creator of the Sahm Rule, to discuss the current macroeconomic outlook. They explore the state of the US labour market and what the Sahm Rule reveals about the economy's current condition. They discuss the conflicting signals in today’s macroeconomic data and hear why Claudia believes the economy is more vulnerable to recession now than in recent years. They also discuss the decline in inflation over the past year, evaluating whether it was influenced by monetary policy and its implications for future policy decisions. Finally, they examine the shift towards more active fiscal and industrial policies and consider whether debt sustainability will become a key issue for the next US administration. 
    -----
    EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
    -----

    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Alan on Twitter.
    Follow Claudia on Twitter.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    02:22 - Introduction to Claudia Sahm
    04:26 - The background behind the Sahm Rule
    08:34 - Does the current data call for a recession?
    12:37 - Putting the data together
    18:16 - Is the unemployment rate the most reliable indicator for recession?
    23:51 - What can we rely on as investors?
    29:48 - What is unusual about this inflation cycle?
    35:32 - The balance of the dual mandate
    40:42 - The state of physical policy
    45:32 -

    • 57 min
    SI302: The Negative Crisis Beta and CTA's Hidden Market Timing Skills ft. Nick Baltas

    SI302: The Negative Crisis Beta and CTA's Hidden Market Timing Skills ft. Nick Baltas

    This week, Alan Dunne chats with Nick Baltas about CTAs' negative crisis beta and their hidden market timing skills. Nick and Alan tackle the question of how to build an effective trend-following program as part of a larger multi-asset portfolio, in relation to the markets traded and speed of system and tie in insights from a recent Quantica paper. They weigh the benefits of unconstrained trend-following programs versus those with capped equity beta. Plus, they discuss the ideal level of volatility for running an investment program and take a closer look at a Resolve Asset Management paper on the best ways to construct carry strategies.
    -----
    EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
    -----

    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Alan on Twitter.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    01:23 - What has caught our attention recently?
    03:00 - Industry performance update
    05:32 - Reversions incoming?
    07:06 - Q1: Regarding how to choose instruments in your trend following algorithm
    14:20 - Getting the speed right
    17:37 - Q2: At what point does volatility put an investor in a danger zone?
    24:32 - Discussing the paper "Negative Crisis Beta" from Quantica
    38:16 - Capping the beta
    45:17 - The hidden market timing of CTAs
    50:23 - The benefits of adding carry to your portfolio
    Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about...

    • 1 hr 7 min

Customer Reviews

4.8 out of 5
513 Ratings

513 Ratings

Leeonidus ,

:)

Excellent pod. Keep up the great work guys!

Ceejay424 ,

Listen up and find your edge

From theory to practice TTU leaves no stone unturned. Niels and guests educate listeners with expertise and thoughtful analysis. A remarkable podcast.

Tom Calahan ,

Some guests are very stupid

Some episodes I’ve actually enjoyed and found useful, but I’d generally say that this podcast belongs at the bottom of the heap.

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