Top Traders Unplugged Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

This week, Mark Rzepczynski joins us to discuss the Bitcoin ETF and the increasing likeliness that it won’t be banned by the US government, the need for money managers to convey good stories in order to simplify their processes to clients, why having a long track record of success, with one or two scars, is better than a perfect recent history, how Trend Following has been so successful over 6 decades, and how a non-secretive strategy like Trend Following compares to private equity strategies.
In this episode, we discuss:
The future of Bitcoin
How money managers can explain their approaches simply to clients
Long, successful, but bumpy track records versus recent strong performers
Trend Following's incredible success over 6 decades
The private equity world compared with systematic investing
Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
Follow Mark on https://twitter.com/mrzepczynski (Twitter).
IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written http://bit.ly/36bzny2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/book%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/ (here).
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating and review on https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (iTunes) so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:54 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen (https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen)
02:49 – Macro recap from Niels
04:52 – Weekly review of performance
12:33 – Why storylines and narratives matter
52:42 – How effectively communicating what we do can be a challenge in any industry
55:54 – The strategies that tend that lend themselves easier to good narratives
01:06:55 – Some thoughts on the likelihood of upcoming stagflation
01:13:01 – Benchmark performance update
01:14:28 – Announcement of new and updated version of the Top Traders Unplugged website which is on the way, as well as a new series on the topic of volatility, hosted by recent guest, Jason Buck

We’re joined today by Moritz Seibert to answer some of the hardest questions in the Turtle Trader entrance exam, as well as discuss the new Bitcoin futures ETF, the drive towards ESG investments and how this affects global supply chains, the years’ top performers so far in our Trend Following systems, whether we can predict if a winning streak is about to end, why Bitcoin is often compared to gold, and whether crypto assets are more suited to shorter-term strategies.
In this episode, we discuss:
The hardest questions in the Turtle Trading entrance exam
The SECs' approval of the first-ever Bitcoin futures ETF
How the move toward sustainable investments is affecting current supply chains
Our best performing assets of the year so far
How Bitcoin compares to Gold and if this is a fair comparison
Which timeframe of Trend Following is best suited for crypto
Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
Follow Moritz on https://twitter.com/moritzseibert (Twitter).
IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written http://bit.ly/36bzny2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/book%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/ (here).
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating and review on https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (iTunes) so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:25 - A huge thank you to our listeners who gave us a 5-star review on iTunes and Apple Podcasts
02:59 - Macro recap from Niels
05:51 - Weekly review of returns
11:00 - Niels: What’s been the year-to-date standout winner for you?
12:40 - Niels: How much of your performance has come from crypto, compared to other non—classical Trend Following assets?
24:45 - Niels: It takes money to money, true or false?
29:45 - Niels: After a big profit, the next trend following trade is more likely to be a loss, true or false?
33:21 - Niels: Trading stocks is similar to trading commodities, true or false?
34:32 - Niels: Volume and open interest are as important as price action, true or false?
36:16 - Niels: A trader should be willing to let profits turn into losses, true or false?
37:14 - Niels: It helps to have the fundamentals in your favour before you initiate a trade, true or false?
38:48 - Niels: It’s better to be an expert in one market, rather than try to trade ten or more markets, true or false?
40:10 - Niels: It’s important to know what success in trading will do for you later in life, true or false?
40:56 - Niels: A gap-up is a good place to initiate, if an uptrend has started, true or false?
42:07 - Niels: All speculators die broke, true or false?
43:05 - Thoughts on the new Pro Shares Bitcoin ETF launching soon
45:58 - Niels: How did your model react to the recent crypto fall in prices, and do you think crypto assets are more suited to shorter-term trend following strategies?
45:58 - Niels: How do you think the average crypto expert views the global macro landscape?
55:58 - The drive towards ESG investing and its knock-on effects to current supply chains
01:15:12 - Benchmark performance update

Jerry Parker joins us for a very special episode today, where we invite him to answer the original interview questions from Richard Dennis’s famous Turtle Trader program. This is a fascinating insight into the world of Trend Following, and one which allows us to see whether Jerry has changed his opinions since working Richard Dennis, as well as explain some of his reasons for the answers chosen today. We’ve posted the questions in the timestamps below, so feel free to take the test and compare your answers to Jerry’s.
Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94nUnXsYpLY (here).
In this episode, we discuss:
Favouring long or short positions
How you can go broke taking small profits
Reasons to ‘fade the fundamentals’
The importance of down-time and vacations
Whether we can rely on opinions of the crowd
System diversification
Why you should trade small
The questions that Jerry would add to the Turtle Trader test today
Avoiding trades due to gaps in price
Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
Follow Jerry on https://twitter.com/RJParkerJr09 (Twitter).
IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written http://bit.ly/36bzny2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/book%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/ (here).
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating and review on https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (iTunes) so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:10 - A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving your 5-star reviews in iTunes, and please share this podcast with a like-minded friend: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen (https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen)
02:19 - I share a hugely important story to my family, as we mark the 10-year anniversary of my son's Sudden Cardiac Arrest and our https://kidsheart.org (KidsHeart) charity welcomes your support. For further information, contact us via: info@kidsheart.ch
08:17 - Weekly review of returns
12:00 - Jerry retakes the Original Entrance Exam for the Turtle Program:
13:08 - Question 1: One should favour long or short positions. Is that true or false?
14:56 - Question 2: One should know precisely when to liquidate if a profit occurs. True or false?
14:56 - Question 3: One should trade the same number of contracts in all markets. True or false?
16:08 - Question 4: If one has £100,000 to trade, one ought to risk £25,000 on every trade. True or false?
16:26 - Question 5: On initiation, one should know precisely where to liquidate if a loss occurs. True or false?
16:34 - Question 6: On initiation, one should know precisely where to liquidate if a loss occurs. True or false?
17:02 - Question 7: It helps to have the fundamentals in your favour before you initiate. True or false?
17:26 - Question 8: A gap up is a good place to initiate if an uptrend has started. True or false?
17:52 - Question 9: If you anticipate buy stops in the market, wait until they are finished, and buy a little higher than that. True or false?
19:29 - Question 10: Out of our 3 types of orders, market orders, stop orders, and resting, market orders cause the least skid. True or false?
20:34 - Question 11: The more bullish news you hear, and the more people going long, the less likely an uptrend is to continue...

Rob Carver returns to the show today to discuss the varying performances among CTAs during the notable market moves of the last few weeks, how to decide whether one system is better or worse than another, spread betting as part of a diversified portfolio, raising initial capital when starting a new firm, some thoughts on the US debt ceiling and its proposed '1 trillion dollar' coin, and how to safely improve your system while still adhering to its rules.
In this episode, we discuss:
Why returns dispersion among CTAs is higher than ever recently
How to gauge a system's long-term effectiveness
Spread betting in the UK as an alternative to futures
How to raise AUM when starting a new firm
The US debt ceiling and its proposed '1 trillion dollar' coin
Adding parameters to a system
Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
Follow Rob on https://twitter.com/InvestingIdiocy (Twitter).
IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written http://bit.ly/36bzny2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/book%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating and review on https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (iTunes) so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:11 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen (https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen) and a big thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes
03:03 - Macro recap from Niels
05:43 - Weekly review of returns
12:49 - How different types of CTAs have performed during the market moves of the last few weeks
21:14 - How to decide whether a system is better or worse than another system
26:11 - Q1; Matt: Has Rob ever considered using SpreadBetting to build a diversified portfolio instead of futures?
34:24 - Q2; Joel: How much investor money would you need if you were to start a firm today, and where would you find these investors?
38:23 - Thoughts on the US debt ceiling and the ‘platinum coin’ (check out this funny video by YouTube creator Remy)
46:58 - Rob’s new system adjustment which places constraints on positions based on leverage
55:56 - Some information on Rob Carver’s new book which is due to be released late 2022
59:36 - Benchmark performance update

Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the stabilising effect that a healthy allocation to Trend Following can have on a portfolio, how to achieve compounded wealth in the long-term with systematic investing, how Trend Following strategies can thrive in both crisis periods as well as good times, some thoughts on data distribution and ‘skewness’, how to effectively communicate the benefits of Trend Following to investors, and the art of ‘embracing uncertainty’ in order to maximise returns.
In this episode, we discuss:
How adding Trend Following to a portfolio can smoothen positive returns
Compounding wealth as a systematic investor
How Trend Following can profit during good times and bad times
Data distribution, 'skewness', 'convexity', 'kurtosis' and which ones to focus on
How investment terms can often create communication barriers
Embracing the uncertain nature of markets in order to maximise profits
Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
Follow Richard on https://twitter.com/@RichB118 (Twitter).
IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written http://bit.ly/36bzny2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/book%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating and review on https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (iTunes) so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:49 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen (https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen)
02:25 – Macro recap from Niels
04:10 – Weekly review of performance
11:35 – Knowing what to look for in a talented investment manager
19:58 – Discussion on the topic of ‘skew’
42:44 – How the term ‘skew’ relates to other terms such as ‘convexity’ and ‘kurtosis’ and which terms are the most important for investors to focus on
56:33 – Some thoughts on what is referred to as ‘path dependency’
01:01:03 – How Trend Following can positively influence an investment portfolio
01:02:57 – Benchmark performance update

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss why people are as important as processes when investors are choosing funds, the factors that can predict future performance of a fund manager, how Trend Following often performs best when markets are highly correlated, some thoughts on portfolio construction and the various ways to measure risk, the importance of having a strong narrative when communicating what you do to allocators, the infamous ‘bandwagon effect’ among investors, how current AUM can often affect an investors decision to choose a fund, how capital allocators can improve their due diligence with Trend Following funds, and why investors like firms made up of a strong team rather than a strong single player.
You can find Mark’s latest writings https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com (here).
In this episode, we discuss:
How people appeal more to investors than trading systems alone
How to spot future star performers in advance
Unconventional approaches to market correlations
The importance of communication and presentation skills when communicating to clients
Why investors tend to copy their peers
Whether fund size matters to capital allocators
How strong teams are usually more sought after by institutional investors than single players
Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
Follow Mark on https://twitter.com/mrzepczynski (Twitter).
IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written http://bit.ly/36bzny2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/book%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating and review on https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (iTunes) so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
03:08 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen (https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen)
04:28 – Macro recap from Niels
06:15 – Weekly review of performance
11:21 – Q1, Q2 and Q3; Brett: Do you group your futures contracts into ‘risk buckets’ (sectors/groups), and give a max exposure to each ‘risk bucket’? Do you apply ‘risk-to-stop’ measures on particular types of asset class or only on the whole portfolio? How do you avoid overweighting your system toward currencies, considering the fact there are so many currency pairs to trade?
27:25 – Discussion on the key drivers for manager selection, inspired by a paper co-authored with Mark, which will be released soon
57:02 – How important consultations are in the capital allocation process
01:26:59 – Benchmark performance update