300 episodes

Join Niels Kaastrup-Larsen as he explores the world of finance and investing, through weekly conversations with the most interesting and experienced investors, economists, traders & thought leaders. Learn from their experiences, their successes, and their failures. We don't want you to think like them...but we do want to make you think! Stay up-to-date on https://toptradersunplugged.com

Top Traders Unplugged Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

    • Business
    • 4.8 • 363 Ratings

Join Niels Kaastrup-Larsen as he explores the world of finance and investing, through weekly conversations with the most interesting and experienced investors, economists, traders & thought leaders. Learn from their experiences, their successes, and their failures. We don't want you to think like them...but we do want to make you think! Stay up-to-date on https://toptradersunplugged.com

    SI163: The Importance of Investment Narratives ft Mark Rzepczynski

    SI163: The Importance of Investment Narratives ft Mark Rzepczynski

    This week, Mark Rzepczynski joins us to discuss the Bitcoin ETF and the increasing likeliness that it won’t be banned by the US government, the need for money managers to convey good stories in order to simplify their processes to clients, why having a long track record of success, with one or two scars, is better than a perfect recent history, how Trend Following has been so successful over 6 decades, and how a non-secretive strategy like Trend Following compares to private equity strategies.
    In this episode, we discuss:
    The future of Bitcoin
    How money managers can explain their approaches simply to clients
    Long, successful, but bumpy track records versus recent strong performers
    Trend Following's incredible success over 6 decades
    The private equity world compared with systematic investing
    Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
    Follow Mark on https://twitter.com/mrzepczynski (Twitter).
    IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written http://bit.ly/36bzny2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/book%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/ (here).
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating and review on https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (iTunes) so more people can discover the podcast.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 – Intro
    01:54 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen (https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen)
    02:49 – Macro recap from Niels
    04:52 – Weekly review of performance
    12:33 – Why storylines and narratives matter
    52:42 – How effectively communicating what we do can be a challenge in any industry
    55:54 – The strategies that tend that lend themselves easier to good narratives
    01:06:55 – Some thoughts on the likelihood of upcoming stagflation
    01:13:01 – Benchmark performance update
    01:14:28 – Announcement of new and updated version of the Top Traders Unplugged website which is on the way, as well as a new series on the topic of volatility, hosted by recent guest, Jason Buck

    • 1 hr 19 min
    SI162: Discussing The New Bitcoin Futures ETF ft Moritz Seibert

    SI162: Discussing The New Bitcoin Futures ETF ft Moritz Seibert

    We’re joined today by Moritz Seibert to answer some of the hardest questions in the Turtle Trader entrance exam, as well as discuss the new Bitcoin futures ETF, the drive towards ESG investments and how this affects global supply chains, the years’ top performers so far in our Trend Following systems, whether we can predict if a winning streak is about to end, why Bitcoin is often compared to gold, and whether crypto assets are more suited to shorter-term strategies.
    In this episode, we discuss:
    The hardest questions in the Turtle Trading entrance exam
    The SECs' approval of the first-ever Bitcoin futures ETF
    How the move toward sustainable investments is affecting current supply chains
    Our best performing assets of the year so far
    How Bitcoin compares to Gold and if this is a fair comparison
    Which timeframe of Trend Following is best suited for crypto
    Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
    Follow Moritz on https://twitter.com/moritzseibert (Twitter).
    IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written http://bit.ly/36bzny2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/book%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/ (here).
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating and review on https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (iTunes) so more people can discover the podcast.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 - Intro
    01:25 - A huge thank you to our listeners who gave us a 5-star review on iTunes and Apple Podcasts
    02:59 - Macro recap from Niels
    05:51 - Weekly review of returns
    11:00 - Niels: What’s been the year-to-date standout winner for you?
    12:40 - Niels: How much of your performance has come from crypto, compared to other non—classical Trend Following assets?
    24:45 - Niels: It takes money to money, true or false?
    29:45 - Niels: After a big profit, the next trend following trade is more likely to be a loss, true or false?
    33:21 - Niels: Trading stocks is similar to trading commodities, true or false?
    34:32 - Niels: Volume and open interest are as important as price action, true or false?
    36:16 - Niels: A trader should be willing to let profits turn into losses, true or false?
    37:14 - Niels: It helps to have the fundamentals in your favour before you initiate a trade, true or false?
    38:48 - Niels: It’s better to be an expert in one market, rather than try to trade ten or more markets, true or false?
    40:10 - Niels: It’s important to know what success in trading will do for you later in life, true or false?
    40:56 - Niels: A gap-up is a good place to initiate, if an uptrend has started, true or false?
    42:07 - Niels: All speculators die broke, true or false?
    43:05 - Thoughts on the new Pro Shares Bitcoin ETF launching soon
    45:58 - Niels: How did your model react to the recent crypto fall in prices, and do you think crypto assets are more suited to shorter-term trend following strategies?
    45:58 - Niels: How do you think the average crypto expert views the global macro landscape?
    55:58 - The drive towards ESG investing and its knock-on effects to current supply chains
    01:15:12 - Benchmark performance update

    • 1 hr 18 min
    SI161: Retaking the Turtle Trader Entrance Exam ft Jerry Parker

    SI161: Retaking the Turtle Trader Entrance Exam ft Jerry Parker

    Jerry Parker joins us for a very special episode today, where we invite him to answer the original interview questions from Richard Dennis’s famous Turtle Trader program. This is a fascinating insight into the world of Trend Following, and one which allows us to see whether Jerry has changed his opinions since working Richard Dennis, as well as explain some of his reasons for the answers chosen today. We’ve posted the questions in the timestamps below, so feel free to take the test and compare your answers to Jerry’s.
    Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94nUnXsYpLY (here).
    In this episode, we discuss:
    Favouring long or short positions
    How you can go broke taking small profits
    Reasons to ‘fade the fundamentals’
    The importance of down-time and vacations
    Whether we can rely on opinions of the crowd
    System diversification
    Why you should trade small
    The questions that Jerry would add to the Turtle Trader test today
    Avoiding trades due to gaps in price
    Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
    Follow Jerry on https://twitter.com/RJParkerJr09 (Twitter).
    IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written http://bit.ly/36bzny2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/book%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/ (here).
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating and review on https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (iTunes) so more people can discover the podcast.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 - Intro
    02:10 - A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving your 5-star reviews in iTunes, and please share this podcast with a like-minded friend: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen (https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen)
    02:19 - I share a hugely important story to my family, as we mark the 10-year anniversary of my son's Sudden Cardiac Arrest and our https://kidsheart.org (KidsHeart) charity welcomes your support. For further information, contact us via: info@kidsheart.ch
    08:17 - Weekly review of returns
    12:00 - Jerry retakes the Original Entrance Exam for the Turtle Program:
    13:08 - Question 1: One should favour long or short positions. Is that true or false?
    14:56 - Question 2: One should know precisely when to liquidate if a profit occurs. True or false?
    14:56 - Question 3: One should trade the same number of contracts in all markets. True or false?
    16:08 - Question 4: If one has £100,000 to trade, one ought to risk £25,000 on every trade. True or false?
    16:26 - Question 5: On initiation, one should know precisely where to liquidate if a loss occurs. True or false?
    16:34 - Question 6: On initiation, one should know precisely where to liquidate if a loss occurs. True or false?
    17:02 - Question 7: It helps to have the fundamentals in your favour before you initiate. True or false?
    17:26 - Question 8: A gap up is a good place to initiate if an uptrend has started. True or false?
    17:52 - Question 9: If you anticipate buy stops in the market, wait until they are finished, and buy a little higher than that. True or false?
    19:29 - Question 10: Out of our 3 types of orders, market orders, stop orders, and resting, market orders cause the least skid. True or false?
    20:34 - Question 11: The more bullish news you hear, and the more people going long, the less likely an uptrend is to continue...

    • 1 hr 1 min
    SI160: Long-Term Performance vs Short-Term Hot Streaks ft Rob Carver

    SI160: Long-Term Performance vs Short-Term Hot Streaks ft Rob Carver

    Rob Carver returns to the show today to discuss the varying performances among CTAs during the notable market moves of the last few weeks, how to decide whether one system is better or worse than another, spread betting as part of a diversified portfolio, raising initial capital when starting a new firm, some thoughts on the US debt ceiling and its proposed '1 trillion dollar' coin, and how to safely improve your system while still adhering to its rules.
    In this episode, we discuss:
    Why returns dispersion among CTAs is higher than ever recently
    How to gauge a system's long-term effectiveness
    Spread betting in the UK as an alternative to futures
    How to raise AUM when starting a new firm
    The US debt ceiling and its proposed '1 trillion dollar' coin
    Adding parameters to a system
    Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
    Follow Rob on https://twitter.com/InvestingIdiocy (Twitter).
    IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written http://bit.ly/36bzny2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/book%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating and review on https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (iTunes) so more people can discover the podcast.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 - Intro
    01:11 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen (https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen) and a big thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes
    03:03 - Macro recap from Niels
    05:43 - Weekly review of returns
    12:49 - How different types of CTAs have performed during the market moves of the last few weeks
    21:14 - How to decide whether a system is better or worse than another system
    26:11 - Q1; Matt: Has Rob ever considered using SpreadBetting to build a diversified portfolio instead of futures?
    34:24 - Q2; Joel: How much investor money would you need if you were to start a firm today, and where would you find these investors?
    38:23 - Thoughts on the US debt ceiling and the ‘platinum coin’ (check out this funny video by YouTube creator Remy)
    46:58 - Rob’s new system adjustment which places constraints on positions based on leverage
    55:56 - Some information on Rob Carver’s new book which is due to be released late 2022
    59:36 - Benchmark performance update

    • 1 hr 4 min
    SI159: Embracing Uncertainty for Outsized Returns ft Richard Brennan

    SI159: Embracing Uncertainty for Outsized Returns ft Richard Brennan

    Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the stabilising effect that a healthy allocation to Trend Following can have on a portfolio, how to achieve compounded wealth in the long-term with systematic investing, how Trend Following strategies can thrive in both crisis periods as well as good times, some thoughts on data distribution and ‘skewness’, how to effectively communicate the benefits of Trend Following to investors, and the art of ‘embracing uncertainty’ in order to maximise returns.
    In this episode, we discuss:
    How adding Trend Following to a portfolio can smoothen positive returns
    Compounding wealth as a systematic investor
    How Trend Following can profit during good times and bad times
    Data distribution, 'skewness', 'convexity', 'kurtosis' and which ones to focus on
    How investment terms can often create communication barriers
    Embracing the uncertain nature of markets in order to maximise profits
    Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
    Follow Richard on https://twitter.com/@RichB118 (Twitter).
    IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written http://bit.ly/36bzny2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/book%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating and review on https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (iTunes) so more people can discover the podcast.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 – Intro
    01:49 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen (https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen)
    02:25 – Macro recap from Niels
    04:10 – Weekly review of performance
    11:35 – Knowing what to look for in a talented investment manager
    19:58 – Discussion on the topic of ‘skew’
    42:44 – How the term ‘skew’ relates to other terms such as ‘convexity’ and ‘kurtosis’ and which terms are the most important for investors to focus on
    56:33 – Some thoughts on what is referred to as ‘path dependency’
    01:01:03 – How Trend Following can positively influence an investment portfolio
    01:02:57 – Benchmark performance update

    • 1 hr 8 min
    SI158: The Secrets to Raising Capital ft Mark Rzepczynski

    SI158: The Secrets to Raising Capital ft Mark Rzepczynski

    Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss why people are as important as processes when investors are choosing funds, the factors that can predict future performance of a fund manager, how Trend Following often performs best when markets are highly correlated, some thoughts on portfolio construction and the various ways to measure risk, the importance of having a strong narrative when communicating what you do to allocators, the infamous ‘bandwagon effect’ among investors, how current AUM can often affect an investors decision to choose a fund, how capital allocators can improve their due diligence with Trend Following funds, and why investors like firms made up of a strong team rather than a strong single player.
    You can find Mark’s latest writings https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com (here).
    In this episode, we discuss:
    How people appeal more to investors than trading systems alone
    How to spot future star performers in advance
    Unconventional approaches to market correlations
    The importance of communication and presentation skills when communicating to clients
    Why investors tend to copy their peers
    Whether fund size matters to capital allocators
    How strong teams are usually more sought after by institutional investors than single players
    Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
    Follow Mark on https://twitter.com/mrzepczynski (Twitter).
    IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written http://bit.ly/36bzny2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/book%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating and review on https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (iTunes) so more people can discover the podcast.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 – Intro
    03:08 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen (https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen)
    04:28 – Macro recap from Niels
    06:15 – Weekly review of performance
    11:21 – Q1, Q2 and Q3; Brett: Do you group your futures contracts into ‘risk buckets’ (sectors/groups), and give a max exposure to each ‘risk bucket’? Do you apply ‘risk-to-stop’ measures on particular types of asset class or only on the whole portfolio? How do you avoid overweighting your system toward currencies, considering the fact there are so many currency pairs to trade?
    27:25 – Discussion on the key drivers for manager selection, inspired by a paper co-authored with Mark, which will be released soon
    57:02 – How important consultations are in the capital allocation process
    01:26:59 – Benchmark performance update

    • 1 hr 30 min

Customer Reviews

4.8 out of 5
363 Ratings

363 Ratings

DUShock ,

The Absolute Best Podcast in Systematic Trading

Niels and his partners Moritz, Jerry, and Rob bring more than a century of experience through booms, bubbles, busts, crashes, and creeping rallies. This podcast series in all of its iterations should appeal to all types of market participants; investors, traders, or the casual observer. This not your average trend following podcast! Thank you Niels, Moritz, Jerry, Rob, and podcast guests for giving so freely of your time to help make us better market participants!

Dhkenj ,

A great show…!0

A great show that is packed full of useful knowledge, market insights and smart advice. This is a show for professionals as well as novices who are interested in systematic trading. Don’t miss an episode!

ProbTrader ,

Notes on Top Traders Unplugged

I am remiss to have waited this long to give a review for this excellent show. It is by far my favorite of the several good podcasts now available. As it happens, my tool kit from a PhD in applied math make me very amenable to the space of medium-long trading that they have adopted. As you might expect, the words they sling around (such as back-testing) are very comfortable for me, since I have spent a lot of time in machine learning and model-based estimation. Having spent my life managing r

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