Top Traders Unplugged Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Today, we are joined by Marko Papic, Partner and Chief Strategist of Clocktower Group, for a conversation on geopolitical analysis and how it can be used to predict the future, based on his book, “Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future”. We discuss why geopolitical analysis should be used and how it can prepare you for the future as an investor, what role politicians play in society and the methods they use to gain voters, how voters are affected by media and the importance of understanding your biases and weaknesses. We also discuss political analysis and how Papic uses Bayesian analysis, why he believes tech is going to underperform massively and why flirting with another power can produce policy results, why Papic is hedging against the dollar, why he believes the war in Ukraine will enter stasis and much more.
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Marko on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:56 - Introduction to Marco Papic
10:35 - Is geopolitical analysis even valid?
14:23 - Go to the insiders if you want geopolitical analysis?
21:04 - How can geopolitical analysis be exploited like investment constraints?
25:42 - What actually causes recessions?
32:33 - Using constraints based analysis
37:15 - What is the median voter theory?
40:33 - Are median voters controlled by media?
45:24 - The role of Bayesian analysis
53:02 - Papic’s take on spread trades
59:13 - Is the dollar overvalued?
01:03:46 - Predicting an invasion
01:09:20 - A strengthening of the Baltic states
01:17:08...

Today, Cem Karsan joins us for our weekly conversation on Volatility & Trend Following, where we discuss the inverted yield curve and how to protect yourself against secular inflation, how Cem foresee the coming period in terms of Opex, Delta hedging, Vanna etc. and the potential bottom of the markets. We also discuss the importance of the outcome of the U.S election and positive CPI numbers and how it affects volatility, why short term volatility might increase and longer term might compress and how it has changed the way Cem trade. Finally we dive into how the ultra low skew has created a dangerous situation for the economy and when the situation might turn back to normal, how inflation affects risk premia and much more.
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:52 - What happened this week?
07:22 - Q1, Dave: What’s up with the inverted yield curve? 
11:24 - Q2, Eron Musk: Cem’s opinion on hedge fund redemption dynamics?
14:21 - Q3, John: Cem’s forecast for the next 4 weeks (Dec. opex)?
16:25 - Q4, JZone: Crude put vs recession? Is the 20d sma and standard deviation all that matter for TF? Probability of right tail risk that China plays ball? National interests vs. economic prosperity
18:12 - Q5, The Slaughter79: Forecast for Opex-deltahedging-gamma-vanna-charm stuff?
18:39 - Q6, Spek: What’s the SP500 potential bottom?
22:47 - The U.S election and positive CPI numbers
30:11 - Asset classes in secular inflation
38:15 - Change in volatility = change in trading strategy?
46:51 - The impact of low skew
57:30 - When are we coming back to normal?
01:02:05 - Liquidity and volatility in relation to...

Today, we are joined by Simon Hunt, who has decades of experience in the copper industry, for a conversation on the state of the global macro environment, both currently and in the years to come. We discuss climate change and the extreme implications it will have on our lives, how the current state of war will impact the economy and how we are on a path to very high inflation and interest rates. We also discuss why Hunt do not believe we are in a commodity super cycle and how he predicts the commodity market will perform the coming years, what keeps Hunt up at night and much more.
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Simon.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:58 - Introduction to Simon Hunt
06:30 - The process of Hunt’s work
13:12 - Hunt’s global macro view
20:52 - Are we approaching a 3rd World War?
27:56 - What will happen to interest rates?
29:43 - What about equities?
33:22 - Is it all about to crash?
34:33 - A commodity super cycle?
41:13 - The relationship between the different currencies
43:21 - How Hunt currently invest
45:12 - What keeps Hunt up at night?
46:49 - Thanks for listening

Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily...

Richard Brennan joins us for a very important conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the FTX crypto collapse and CPI melt-up. We discuss how the outlook of inflation is changing and how it impacts trends, how the concept of "pants size" relates to different lookback periods as well as stops and the importance of position sizing, the difference between different position sizing schemes and how to best utilize them. We also discuss the trading opportunities that the uncertainty of the current environment brings and how trend following is part of it, what drive trends and why trend following is an essential tool in diversifying your portfolio, how uncertainty in the markets causes a shift in trader behaviour and much more.
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:26 - What happened this week?
11:32 - Industry performance update
15:41 - Q1, Daniel: Tight or loose pants for different lookback periods
22:52 - Q2, Henrik: Trade-offs between different position sizing schemes
34:51 - Trading opportunities that uncertainty brings
48:02 - Why is trend following so great in times of uncertainty?
01:17:49 - Thanks for listening

Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend...

Today, Niels and Rob are joined by Nick Baltas, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs, for a conversation on systematic investment strategies. We discuss the difference between a number of systematic trading strategies and the pros and cons of each, how crowding impacts systematic investing and how the narrative created by media affects the systematic investment space, the capacity constraints for CTAs and the impact of costs. We also discuss how big an impact the trend following community has on the markets and the strength and weaknesses of different alternative markets, selective hedging and how skew can be used as a predictor of future returns. Lastly, we discuss the challenging environment of 2022 and why Trend is performing so well this year, why Trend Following is becoming an essential part of every portfolio and much more.
----
----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Nick on LinkedIn.
Episode Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:16 - Introduction to Nick Baltas
05:59 - Baltas’ findings from comparing different systematic trading strategies
12:10 - Is the CTA industry too small to have an impact?
16:44 - Blame it on the trend following people
21:42 - Baltas’ research on capacity
30:03 - The impact of trend
37:54 - Pros and cons between different alternative markets
46:10 - Using skew in your strategy
52:57 - Nick's article in Financial Times
01:05:47 - Is Trend Following becoming Essential for all investors?
01:11:55 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
a...

Today, Rob Carver joins us for our weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we also address this week's press conference held by Chairman Powell. We discuss the most optimal time period for trend following and how trend following differ from short-term trading. Then we explain the challenges in the UCITS space and how regulation affects these products, and why it is important to correctly distinguish asset classes and trading strategies from each other. We also discuss Rob’s approach to building mean reversion systems, the importance of analyzing trading costs and if it is worth learning how to trade futures, if you have a small account. Lastly, we discuss hedge fund replication and how Rob approaches it, and how to decide, how much you should allocate to Trend Following and much more.
----
----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:58 - The biggest takeaways from the week?
11:36 - Industry performance update
13:27 - Status on Rob’s book
14:38 - Q1, Simon: What is the shortest term that Rob has looked at in trend following / momentum?
25:26 - Q2, Matthew: Relationship between UCITS funds's lower vol and Trend Following allocation? & Advice for small investors
32:20 - Comment, Mark: Confusing asset classes and trading strategies
39:22 - Q3, Toby: About building mean reversing systems
40:58 - Q4, Zach: How to approach holding periods and rolling costs?
43:22 - Q5, Anis: Cash equities vs. futures for trend following?
46.29 - Rob’s take on hedge fund replication
01:00:18 - Trend Following - How much is enough?
01:06:42 - Announcement

Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights...