300 episodes

Join Niels Kaastrup-Larsen as he explores the world of finance and investing, through weekly conversations with the most interesting and experienced investors, economists, traders & thought leaders. Learn from their experiences, their successes, and their failures. We don't want you to think like them...but we do want to make you think! Stay up-to-date on https://toptradersunplugged.com

Top Traders Unplugged Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

    • Business
    • 4.8 • 431 Ratings

Join Niels Kaastrup-Larsen as he explores the world of finance and investing, through weekly conversations with the most interesting and experienced investors, economists, traders & thought leaders. Learn from their experiences, their successes, and their failures. We don't want you to think like them...but we do want to make you think! Stay up-to-date on https://toptradersunplugged.com

    SI220: Is It Too Late for Trend Following? ft. Mark Rzepczynski

    SI220: Is It Too Late for Trend Following? ft. Mark Rzepczynski

    Today, Mark Rzepczynsky joins us for a weekly update on Trend Following, following the release of the minutes from the FED’s Open Market Committee in a week of thin liquidity. We discuss whether trend followers can make money going forward after a great year and if it is "too late" to allocate to trend following, the historical perspective of trend following and what we can expect going forward based on the latest analysis from AQR, and how the fast flow of information impacts trend following. We also discuss the importance of knowing when to quit and embezzlement in the crypto space, why trust is a key factor of trend following and why you should find out where liquidity is coming from. We finish discussing why it is important to be aware of how markets move through cycles, what it means if we are heading into a more deglobalized world and much more.
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    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Mark on Twitter.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 - Intro
    02:21 - What happened this week?
    06:24 - Industry performance update
    09:19 - Is it too late for trend following?
    24:47 - The impact of fast information
    30:59 - The human element of policy
    38:36 - Quit vs. Grit
    42:16 - Diving into the crypto world
    50:50 - Mind your liquidity
    56:17 - Periods, ages and regimes
    59:40 - The end of Globalization & what this means?
    01:03:12 - Being a data detective
    01:06:01 - Final thoughts

    Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and...

    • 1 hr 8 min
    GM29: What if the World isn't Ending? ft. Marko Papic

    GM29: What if the World isn't Ending? ft. Marko Papic

    Today, we are joined by Marko Papic, Partner and Chief Strategist of Clocktower Group, for a conversation on geopolitical analysis and how it can be used to predict the future, based on his book, “Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future”. We discuss why geopolitical analysis should be used and how it can prepare you for the future as an investor, what role politicians play in society and the methods they use to gain voters, how voters are affected by media and the importance of understanding your biases and weaknesses. We also discuss political analysis and how Papic uses Bayesian analysis, why he believes tech is going to underperform massively and why flirting with another power can produce policy results, why Papic is hedging against the dollar, why he believes the war in Ukraine will enter stasis and much more.
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    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Cem on Twitter.
    Follow Marko on Twitter.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 - Intro
    02:56 - Introduction to Marco Papic
    10:35 - Is geopolitical analysis even valid?
    14:23 - Go to the insiders if you want geopolitical analysis?
    21:04 - How can geopolitical analysis be exploited like investment constraints?
    25:42 - What actually causes recessions?
    32:33 - Using constraints based analysis
    37:15 - What is the median voter theory?
    40:33 - Are median voters controlled by media?
    45:24 - The role of Bayesian analysis
    53:02 - Papic’s take on spread trades
    59:13 - Is the dollar overvalued?
    01:03:46 - Predicting an invasion
    01:09:20 - A strengthening of the Baltic states
    01:17:08...

    • 1 hr 19 min
    SI219: The Impact of Secular Inflation ft. Cem Karsan

    SI219: The Impact of Secular Inflation ft. Cem Karsan

    Today, Cem Karsan joins us for our weekly conversation on Volatility & Trend Following, where we discuss the inverted yield curve and how to protect yourself against secular inflation, how Cem foresee the coming period in terms of Opex, Delta hedging, Vanna etc. and the potential bottom of the markets. We also discuss the importance of the outcome of the U.S election and positive CPI numbers and how it affects volatility, why short term volatility might increase and longer term might compress and how it has changed the way Cem trade. Finally we dive into how the ultra low skew has created a dangerous situation for the economy and when the situation might turn back to normal, how inflation affects risk premia and much more.
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    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Cem on Twitter.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 - Intro
    01:52 - What happened this week?
    07:22 - Q1, Dave: What’s up with the inverted yield curve? 
    11:24 - Q2, Eron Musk: Cem’s opinion on hedge fund redemption dynamics?
    14:21 - Q3, John: Cem’s forecast for the next 4 weeks (Dec. opex)?
    16:25 - Q4, JZone: Crude put vs recession? Is the 20d sma and standard deviation all that matter for TF? Probability of right tail risk that China plays ball? National interests vs. economic prosperity
    18:12 - Q5, The Slaughter79: Forecast for Opex-deltahedging-gamma-vanna-charm stuff?
    18:39 - Q6, Spek: What’s the SP500 potential bottom?
    22:47 - The U.S election and positive CPI numbers
    30:11 - Asset classes in secular inflation
    38:15 - Change in volatility = change in trading strategy?
    46:51 - The impact of low skew
    57:30 - When are we coming back to normal?
    01:02:05 - Liquidity and volatility in relation to...

    • 1 hr 10 min
    GM28: Draught, Deflation, Default & Global Depression ft. Simon Hunt

    GM28: Draught, Deflation, Default & Global Depression ft. Simon Hunt

    Today, we are joined by Simon Hunt, who has decades of experience in the copper industry, for a conversation on the state of the global macro environment, both currently and in the years to come. We discuss climate change and the extreme implications it will have on our lives, how the current state of war will impact the economy and how we are on a path to very high inflation and interest rates. We also discuss why Hunt do not believe we are in a commodity super cycle and how he predicts the commodity market will perform the coming years, what keeps Hunt up at night and much more.
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    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Simon.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 - Intro
    02:58 - Introduction to Simon Hunt
    06:30 - The process of Hunt’s work
    13:12 - Hunt’s global macro view
    20:52 - Are we approaching a 3rd World War?
    27:56 - What will happen to interest rates?
    29:43 - What about equities?
    33:22 - Is it all about to crash?
    34:33 - A commodity super cycle?
    41:13 - The relationship between the different currencies
    43:21 - How Hunt currently invest
    45:12 - What keeps Hunt up at night?
    46:49 - Thanks for listening
    
    Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
    ----
    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
    2. Daily...

    • 48 min
    SI218: Trend Following to the Rescue ft. Richard Brennan

    SI218: Trend Following to the Rescue ft. Richard Brennan

    Richard Brennan joins us for a very important conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the FTX crypto collapse and CPI melt-up. We discuss how the outlook of inflation is changing and how it impacts trends, how the concept of "pants size" relates to different lookback periods as well as stops and the importance of position sizing, the difference between different position sizing schemes and how to best utilize them. We also discuss the trading opportunities that the uncertainty of the current environment brings and how trend following is part of it, what drive trends and why trend following is an essential tool in diversifying your portfolio, how uncertainty in the markets causes a shift in trader behaviour and much more.
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    ----
    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Rich on Twitter.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 - Intro
    02:26 - What happened this week?
    11:32 - Industry performance update
    15:41 - Q1, Daniel: Tight or loose pants for different lookback periods
    22:52 - Q2, Henrik: Trade-offs between different position sizing schemes
    34:51 - Trading opportunities that uncertainty brings
    48:02 - Why is trend following so great in times of uncertainty?
    01:17:49 - Thanks for listening

    Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
    ----
    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
    2. Daily Trend...

    • 1 hr 22 min
    TTU121: Trend Following... from Optional to Essential ft. Nick Baltas

    TTU121: Trend Following... from Optional to Essential ft. Nick Baltas

    Today, Niels and Rob are joined by Nick Baltas, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs, for a conversation on systematic investment strategies. We discuss the difference between a number of systematic trading strategies and the pros and cons of each, how crowding impacts systematic investing and how the narrative created by media affects the systematic investment space, the capacity constraints for CTAs and the impact of costs. We also discuss how big an impact the trend following community has on the markets and the strength and weaknesses of different alternative markets, selective hedging and how skew can be used as a predictor of future returns. Lastly, we discuss the challenging environment of 2022 and why Trend is performing so well this year, why Trend Following is becoming an essential part of every portfolio and much more.
    ----
    ----
    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Rob on Twitter.
    Follow Nick on LinkedIn.
    Episode Timestamps:
    00:00 - Intro
    03:16 - Introduction to Nick Baltas
    05:59 - Baltas’ findings from comparing different systematic trading strategies
    12:10 - Is the CTA industry too small to have an impact?
    16:44 - Blame it on the trend following people
    21:42 - Baltas’ research on capacity
    30:03 - The impact of trend
    37:54 - Pros and cons between different alternative markets
    46:10 - Using skew in your strategy
    52:57 - Nick's article in Financial Times
    01:05:47 - Is Trend Following becoming Essential for all investors?
    01:11:55 - Thanks for listening
    Resources discussed in this Episode:
    a...

    • 1 hr 13 min

Customer Reviews

4.8 out of 5
431 Ratings

431 Ratings

Jar9d* ,

Love the global macro series

One of the best macro podcasts, keep up the good discussions!

US Weeping ,

One of my go to podcasts

I listen weekly to Top Traders Unplugged. The variety of topics and the emphasis on sticking to your strategy encourage me in the world of investing. Thanks to Niels, Jerry, and Moritz for your time and insights. During this time of uncertainty in oil, the has been helpful to understand what oil is doing in today’s economy. Many of the points made in the podcasts have help me understand the global picture in the oil industry.

DEFELI1 ,

Carsam as usual... bla bla bla

Mr planet palo alto thinks he is a macroeconomist now.

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