The SMO Show (Stop Missing Out)

Gambit Capital Management, LLC
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Gambit Capital Management, LLC is partnering with clients to build private wealth strategies that align with individual goals and risk tolerance. As fiduciaries, we tailor and adapt portfolios to ensure they are in the best interest of the clients we serve.Gambit Capital Management, LLC is an independently owned, Registered Investment Advisory firm.

  1. Aug 26

    Welcome to the Team, Matt: AI, Investing & the Math Behind Better Decisions

    Meet Matt Mattheisen, the newest advisor to join our team on The SMO Show. Matt brings more than 20 years of experience in financial services, along with a unique approach to financial planning that combines traditional advising with technology, data, and a healthy skepticism of conventional market narratives. In this episode, Tyler gets to know Matt, his background, and what led him to become a financial advisor. The conversation takes an interesting turn when Matt explains how his growing use of AI tools like ChatGPT and Claude eventually led him to teach himself Python. Rather than relying on AI alone, Matt uses programming and data to turn ideas into more concrete, deterministic analysis. Matt shares how this approach can be applied to real financial decisions, from determining whether a client should pay off a loan to evaluating whether someone is actually ready for retirement. He also explains why he's skeptical of financial narratives and talking heads—and why, when it comes to making financial decisions, the math matters more than the story. It's a conversation about financial advice, technology, curiosity, and what happens when an experienced advisor decides to keep learning rather than settle for the way things have always been done. Chapters 00:00 – Welcome to The SMO Show Introducing Matt Mattheisen, the newest advisor to join our team. 01:10 – Getting to Know Matt Matt's family, background, and journey into financial services. 02:16 – More Than 20 Years in Financial Services Matt's career and experience across the financial services industry. 02:56 – Why a Financial Advisor Learned Python How AI sparked Matt's interest in programming and led him to teach himself Python. 03:25 – The Limitations of AI Why Matt found that simply prompting AI wasn't enough and how hallucinations, drift, and mistakes led him to look for a better approach. 04:00 – From AI to Deterministic Analysis How Python can turn AI-generated ideas and data into more concrete financial analysis. 05:30 – Can You Actually Trust the Numbers? How Matt uses data and mathematical analysis to help clients make financial decisions. 06:00 – Using Technology to Improve Financial Advice Moving beyond simply using AI as a chatbot and putting technology to work for clients. 08:32 – A Real Client Example: Should You Pay Off the Loan? How Matt built an analysis to determine whether a client should pay off a car loan or continue making payments. 09:55 – The Math Doesn't Lie Why Matt is skeptical of financial narratives and talking heads—and why he tends to trust the math more than the story. 10:19 – The $300,000 Mortgage Question A real-world example of using simple math to put a financial decision into perspective. 12:00 – Why Be a Financial Advisor? What Matt enjoys about advising clients and why, after more than 20 years, he still wants to keep doing it.

  2. Aug 11

    Stop Investing for Dividends

    In this episode of The SMO Show, Tyler and Dan break down everything investors need to know about dividends and why chasing them may not be the wealth-building strategy many people assume. They explain that the largest, highest-performing companies in the S&P 500 (like Nvidia, Google, and Microsoft) pay little to no dividends, instead reinvesting cash into their businesses at high rates of return — a strategy famously championed by Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway. The guys walk through the mechanics of how dividends actually work, debunking the "free lunch" myth by showing that a stock's price drops by the dividend amount on the ex-dividend date, meaning shareholders don't come out ahead. They also highlight the tax disadvantages of dividends compared to stock buybacks, which give investors more control over when they realize gains. Since a 1982 SEC rule change allowed share buybacks, dividend yields on the S&P 500 have declined from nearly 5% to just over 1% today — a fundamental market shift that investors should understand. For those approaching retirement, Tyler and Dan recommend a planning-first approach: identify cash needs for the next one to three years, keep that in safer investments, and let the rest stay invested in high-growth companies — rather than forcing a portfolio into high-dividend stocks with lower return potential. Chapters 0:00 Intro/Welcome 1:20 What Is a Dividend 2:43 What Do Companies Do with Their Dividends/Capital 7:04 No Such Thing as a Free Lunch 10:30 Taxability of Dividends 13:40 How Things Changed Since 1982 16:30 Dividend Alternatives for Retirement 18:15 Why Would a Company Pay Out a Dividend Instead of Reinvesting? 19:15 Conclusion/Outro

  3. Jul 7

    Q2 2026 Market Review: Strong Rebound, Small Caps Surge & What's Next for the Economy

    In this episode of The SMO Show, Dan Powers and Pete Earp review the second quarter of 2026 and discuss what investors should be watching for over the next 6 to 12 months. They begin with a fun look at how America's economy has transformed over the past 250 years before diving into the latest market performance. The discussion covers the strong rebound in U.S. stocks, why small-cap stocks significantly outperformed, international market strength, and why bonds remained relatively flat. They also explore improving inflation expectations, the possibility of future Federal Reserve rate cuts, recent earnings growth, and what slowing—but still positive—economic growth could mean for investors going forward. 00:00 - 00:22 Welcome to The SMO Show 00:22 - 02:08 Fourth of July & America's 250th Anniversary 02:08 - 04:47 America's Economic Growth Since 1776 04:47 - 06:05 Q2 2026 Market Performance 06:05 - 07:01 Why Small-Cap Stocks Outperformed 07:01 - 07:27 Bonds & Interest Rates 07:27 - 08:02 International & Emerging Markets 08:02 - 08:40 Strong Corporate Earnings 08:40 - 10:32 Inflation, the Fed & Interest Rates 10:32 - 11:23 Oil Prices, Gas Prices & Consumers 11:23 - 12:08 GDP Growth & Market Outlook 12:08 - 12:25 Closing Thoughts & Happy Fourth of July

  4. Jun 5

    Game Within The Game

    The SMO Show, hosted by Dan Powers and Pete Earp and brought to you by Gambit Capital Management, opens with a Gilded Age parable about Jay Gould outmaneuvering Cornelius Vanderbilt in a cattle-shipping price war —using Vanderbilt's own predatory pricing against him — as a metaphor for today's AI arms race. The hosts then break down how the tech industry's biggest players are fiercely competing to build out the "new rails" of AI infrastructure, covering a wave of upcoming IPOs from SpaceX (targeting a $1.75T valuation), Anthropic (~$1T), and OpenAI (~$1T), alongside Google's surprise $80 billion equity offering — which Dan and Pete argue is a deliberate move to front-run competitors and corner access to scarce resources like GPUs, high-bandwidth memory, and power. With Google projecting $180–190 billion in CapEx for 2026 and even more in 2027, the hosts conclude that the company is using its unmatched cash generation to force rivals into a spending war of attrition, raising the question of whether capital markets can absorb the enormous volume of new shares hitting all at once. 00:00-01:01 Introduction to the SMO Show 01:01-04:08 The Capitalist Bedtime Story: AI and the Gilded Age 04:08-07:45 The AI Arms Race: Competition and Strategy 07:45-11:50 Upcoming IPOs: Market Dynamics and Implications 11:50-14:07 Google's Aggressive Capital Strategy 14:07 Conclusion and Future Outlook

  5. May 19

    Overpriced Stocks & Berkshire Hathaway’s Massive Cash Hoard

    Are stocks too expensive right now? In this episode of the SMO Show, Tyler Schelhaas, Dan Powers, and Pete Earp break down today’s market valuation concerns, the truth about Berkshire Hathaway’s massive cash position, and what investors should actually pay attention to in today’s environment. Before diving into markets, the team opens with Pete’s hilarious “Minnesota Sports Betting Strategy” — a tongue-in-cheek sports betting system designed specifically for long-suffering Minnesota sports fans. Then the conversation shifts into: •Why high valuations alone are NOT a catalyst for market declines •What metrics like P/E ratios, CAPE ratios, and market cap to GDP actually tell investors •Why Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position doesn’t necessarily mean Buffett is bearish •The “shock absorber” analogy for understanding valuations •How GDP growth and Inflation growth rates influence equity markets •Why earnings growth still matters despite expensive markets If you’ve seen headlines about “overvalued markets” and wondered what investors should actually do with that information, this episode breaks it down in plain English. Timestamps below 👇 #investing #stockmarket #warrenbuffett #berkshirehathaway #marketvaluation #economy #financepodcast Chapter Marks 00:00 Welcome to the SMO Show. 00:36 Intro 01:22 Pete’s MN sport’s emotional hedging strategy. 06:13 We're going to transition into valuations on the market. 08:34 Valuations as shock absorbers. 10:18 How should the average investor react. 12:34 How Gambit Capital reacts. 14:12 Summary

  6. May 8

    Highlight Episode: 5 Lessons for Leadership, Business, & Investing

    This week on The SMO Show, Tyler and Dan introduce a new series focused on business owners, entrepreneurs, and the lessons behind building enduring companies. Before this episode, we released the full long-form interview with Eric Johnson, CEO of Arnold Motor Supply. This “Highlights Episode” serves as a condensed version of the interview, where Tyler and Dan break down the five biggest takeaways related Business, Leadership, and Investing. Topics include: -Why you don’t need to invent the next big thing to benefit from it -Learning from successful leaders and businesses that came before you -The impact of employee ownership and aligned incentives -Why periods of uncertainty can create opportunity -Leadership, delegation, and avoiding micromanagement during crisis If you like what you hear in this episode, be sure to check out the previous episode for the complete conversation with Eric Johnson. 00:00-00:20 — Intro to The SMO Show 00:20-01:47 — Launching the Entrepreneur Interview Series 01:47-06:00 — Lesson #1: Investing Around Innovation 06:00-09:44 — Lesson #2: Learning From Those Who Came Before You 09:44-12:04 — Lesson #3: Employee Ownership & Aligned Incentives 12:04-14:39 — Lesson #4: Investing During Crisis & Uncertainty 14:39-17:20 — Lesson #5: Leadership vs. Micromanagement 17:20-18:18 — Final Thoughts & Book Recommendation 18:18-18:52 — Disclosure

  7. May 8

    The Secret Formula Behind One of America’s Oldest Companies

    Welcome to a new episode of The SMO Show and the launch of our new Business Owner Series, where Dan and Tyler sit down with entrepreneurs, executives, and business leaders to hear the real stories behind how they built successful companies. In this episode, Dan and Tyler are joined by Eric Johnson, the managing partner and president of Arnold Motor Supply. Eric shares the incredible history behind one of the Midwest’s most unique employee-owned businesses, how the company has grown to over 80 stores across five states, and why culture, ownership, and customer service remain at the center of everything they do nearly 100 years later. The conversation covers: -The founding story of Arnold Motor Supply in 1927 -How the employee ownership model works with 200 partners -Leadership lessons from growing and scaling a business -The importance of culture and “ownership thinking” -Stories from the company’s devastating flood recovery -Advice for entrepreneurs building teams and businesses -Why customer service still wins in today’s world Eric also discusses his book, You Build a Business with People, and shares insights on leadership, long-term thinking, and preserving company culture while continuing to grow. If you enjoy hearing how successful businesses are built, maintained, and scaled over generations, this episode is packed with practical lessons and great stories. 00:00-00:59 — Intro to the Entrepreneur Interview Series 00:59-01:19 — SMO Show Opening 01:19-06:44 — Meet Eric Johnson & Arnold Motor Supply 06:44-08:46 — What a Managing Partner/CEO Actually Does 09:46-13:50 — The Founding Story of Arnold Motor Supply 13:50-16:58 — Employee Ownership & Partnership Structure 16:58-20:03 — Why Ownership Culture Matters 20:03-23:42 — Becoming a Partner at Arnold Motor Supply 23:42-28:57 — Great Depression, World War II & Business Growth 28:57-34:58 — Writing You Build a Business with People 34:58-36:20 — Preparing for the 100-Year Anniversary 36:20-42:04 — What Makes Arnold Motor Supply Different Today 42:04-49:30 — Preserving Culture & Delivering “The Arnold Extra” 49:30-57:19 — The Spencer Flood & Leading Through Crisis 57:19-59:40 — Advice for Entrepreneurs & Business Owners 59:40-1:00:32 — Closing Thoughts

  8. Apr 21

    Saving for Kids Just Changed—Here’s What You Need to Know

    There’s a new kid on the block when it comes to saving for children—the Trump Account. In this episode, we break down how it works, who qualifies for the $1,000 government seed, and how it compares to 529 plans and UTMA accounts. If you’re a parent, grandparent, or relative looking to help a child financially, this is a must-listen. 00:00-01:12 Welcome to The Schmo Show 01:12-02:32 What Is a Trump Account? 02:32-04:03 Purpose: Why These Accounts Exist 04:03-05:54 Contribution Rules & Limits 05:54-06:44 When Can the Money Be Used? 06:44-07:48 Investment Options Explained 07:48-08:25 The 3 Ways to Save for Kids 08:25-09:45 How 529 Plans Work 09:45-11:06 529-to-Roth Conversion Rules 11:06-12:39 What Is a UTMA Account? 12:39-13:23 Taxes, Control, and Financial Aid Impact 13:23-13:49 Which Account Is Best? 13:49-15:52 Why a Layered Strategy Works 15:52-16:36 Final Thoughts for Parents & Grandparents 16:36-17:02 Disclosures

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Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
11 Ratings

About

Gambit Capital Management, LLC is partnering with clients to build private wealth strategies that align with individual goals and risk tolerance. As fiduciaries, we tailor and adapt portfolios to ensure they are in the best interest of the clients we serve.Gambit Capital Management, LLC is an independently owned, Registered Investment Advisory firm.

Information

  • Creator
    Gambit Capital Management, LLC
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    33
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2024 The SMO Show

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