The unsung path back from today's housing affordability crisis with Mike Simonsen

Where is the mortgage market headed? Mike Simonsen and the team at Altos Research can you tell you sooner than anyone. Since before the meltdown in 2008, Mike has been collecting, analyzing, and interpreting the most real-time real estate data available. And in this episode of Batting 1,000 with Dale Vermillion, he shares exactly what the data is indicating for future housing inventory levels, home prices, and more.

Know exactly what to expect in today's mortgage market, and what you need to prepare for as the FED works to restore inventory from it's anemic levels.

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In This Episode

▸ How Mike's data "saved" Goldman Sachs (starts at 1 min 25 secs)

Enjoy Mike's tongue-in-cheek story about how 6 months after Goldman Sach's became Mike's first enterprise data licensing client, they shorted the housing market one quarter faster than the rest of Wall Street.

▸ The actual state of housing inventory (starts at 8 mins 39 secs)

While there's 39% more unsold housing inventory in the United States today than there was a year ago and every state has more inventory today than this time last year, only 5 of 50 states have more inventory than they did in 2019. And if the data holds, YoY inventory gains will be closer to 20% by EOY.

▸ Contextualizing new construction in the inventory calculation (starts at 19 mins 15 secs)

When calculating. the actual supply of available homes for sale, understanding where in the construction process new construction listings are is absolutely critical. Mike explains why, and how the Altos Research team factors for currently unsellable new construction in their inventory calculations.

▸ The impact of the NAR settlement on listings data (starts at 21 mins 48 secs)

In short, the impact of the NAR settlement has drastically altered listings data. Inventory, while growing, remains below normal market targets, buyer demand remains low as rates hover above 6%, and price reductions have continued to accelerate modestly as we approach the offseason.

▸ Proving value with Altos Market Reports (starts at 27 mins)

In the aftermath of the NAR Settlement, buyers are demanding proof than ever of the value their real estate agents provide. Having access to white-labeled Altos Research market reports is just another way to prove the value of your representation, or to help your partners prove the value of their representation.

▸ Where home prices are headed in America (starts at 28 mins 38 secs)

There are so many factors that drive home prices, incl. rates, demand, inventory and equity just to name a few. Based on his decades pf experience (and best-in-class data), Mike sees home prices continuing to grow modestly, with select markets experiencing temporary drawbacks that will mostly affect late-cycle borrowers. But nowhere in the data does Mike see indications of a crash in home prices—not even in the most reduced markets, like Austin, TX.

▸ Bullish and bearish indicators for mortgage (starts at 41 mins)

If there's one reason for a bullish attitude toward today's mortgage market, it's LTVs. According to CoreLogic, the median equity in America right now is an astonishing $305,000. However, for late-cycle borrowers and current buyers, DTI ratios are becoming a serious concern. At 40%, the national median debt-to-income ratio is troubling, a potential reason to temper bullishness towards the current