There will be surprises (TWIF 1/31)

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One Big Thought

This week, I was planning to make the big story of newsletter about the US Executive Order on digital currencies and stablecoins.

And then the President of the United States launched his own fintech company...?

And then X announced that it's working with Visa on its 'everything app' with the goal of becoming a fintech company.

And then global neobank Revolut rolled out a new commercial real estate lending arm.

If there's one rule of the 2025 timeline, it's this: There will be surprises.

I'm sure I'm missing a few other massive announcements this week, but one big thought: 2025 feels very different from the past few years. It's invigorating to see companies taking risks again. Capital markets are rewarding companies again for healthy growth. After the easy-money days of 2020/2021, fintech spent the past couple years growing up, and now when a neobank moves into CRE, it's a credible move. Will this year see Klarna, Circle, or Stripe go public? How many users will Revolut and Nubank have by EOY? How many countries will TBC operate in? Will Affirm buy a card network? Will Brex and Ramp bury the hatchet and join forces to become Bramp (or Rex?)

One guarantee: There will be surprises.

Also, while I have you here, a few thoughts on the digital currencies EO:

• The EO doesn't actually change anything so far, in that banks, fintechs, and crypto companies can't take direct guidance from the EO and change their operations accordingly. But what it does mean is that this administration's posture will be much less hawkish towards new financial products.
• The EO establishes a digital currency working group with the remit of proposing a regulatory framework governing digital assets in 180 days (!) with initial findings due in 30 days (!) This is not a long, meandering '5 year plan.'
• The EO expresses a direct preference for privately-issued stablecoins over central bank digital currencies. Not surprising, given the pro-markets orientation of this administration, but it brings up some interesting questions about how private coins will be regulated, whether they'll be treated differently than tokenized deposits, and how other countries' CBDCs will interact with US stables. Sadly there doesn't seem to be a great technical primer (yet) on the product distinctions between CBDCs and stables – just a lot of consulting firm marketing docs – but I'd love to share one, if someone can find one and forward it to me.