Local Inflation Update
- Inflation at 3.8% - lowest since March 2021 (3.5 years ago)
- Well below SARB's target range midpoint of 4.5%
- Q3 year-on-year inflation at 4.3% (vs SARB's expected 4.4%)
SA CPI YonY September 2024
November MPC Meeting Outlook
- Rate cut expected, but size uncertain
- Possibility of 25bps vs 50bps cut
- Factors affecting decision:
- Rand weakness
- Rising oil prices
- Global economic conditions
Important titbit about today's SA headline CPI print. It meant that CPI rose by 4.3% y/y in Q3 2024. In Sept, SARB expected 4.4% for Q3, implying Sept print largely in line with their expectations. Therefore, today's number will not change SARB's thinking. Folks should calm down.
— Hugo Pienaar (@hugopien) October 23, 2024
Currency Markets
- US Dollar showing significant strength
- DXY moved from 100.42 to 104.33 (≈4% increase in one month)
- Strong capital flows into US
- Rand trading at R17.73
- Potential to move above R18
- Long-term targets of R16.80 and R15.50 looking less likely short-term
- Potential implications of different outcomes
- Trump's proposed policies could be inflationary:
- Planned tariffs
- Immigration restrictions
- Impact on labor markets and prices
- Demonstration of AI analysis using Google Notebook LM
- Key findings:
- Leading Brands: Operating margin >50%
- Signature Brands: Operating margin -6.7%
- Manufacturing: Improved margins due to diesel savings
- Geographic performance varies:
- South Africa: 1.8% margin
- UK operations showing significant decline
- Cash generation at R498 million (7% decrease)
- Plans for 89 new stores
Chapters
00:00 Local Inflation and Economic Outlook 06:01 Using AI for Investment Analysis 12:06 Famous Brands Results Analysis 18:05 Comparative Analysis with SPUR
Simon Brown
* I hold ungeared positions.
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Information
- Show
- FrequencyUpdated Weekly
- PublishedOctober 24, 2024 at 7:03 AM UTC
- Length20 min
- Episode608
- RatingClean