Where Markets Go After All-Time Highs by VIX Level | Crazy Earnings Estimates | CPI is Rarely 2% | Latest Interest Rate Probabilities

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back again to discuss whether the level of the VIX Index at all-time market highs is a predictor of future market moves. Then, with earnings season kicking off in earnest, reviewing the analyst lofty estimates including some very surprising numbers for Russell 2000 Index companies. Later, Derek goes through some data that basically says the CPI YoY % change isn’t around 2% too often despite the Feds “mandate” of 2% inflation target. Finally, they discuss NFLX earnings and what the options market is saying plus a few other companies including United Healthcare.

The level of the VIX Index at all-time S&P 500 Index highs and the next 60 days, 3&6 months

Does where the VIX Index is at all-time market highs really matter?

The Fed’s elusive 2% target when looking at monthly data back to January of 2012

How often the year over year (YoY) percent change in CPI is at different levels

VIX Index vs bond volatility seen via the MOVE Index

Netflix (NFLX) and United Healthcare (UNH) options market pre-earnings check in

Implied volatility of options prior to earnings releases

Predictions for the November Fed meeting

Quarterly earnings estimates for the S&P 500 Index over the next two years are bullish

Reviewing the Russell 2000 Index earnings estimates and how lofty they are currently

Looking at growth of next 12 months earnings estimates vs the S&P 500 Index itself

Mentioned in this Episode

VIX Too High at All-Time Market Highs? | Employment Surprises | Interest Rate Cut Expectations Drop| No More Port Strike | Technical Analysis on Markets https://open.spotify.com/episode/7uOX1CRDw8T9q1lNpx2lHc?si=2078c3e6fbec4a2c

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com