Where to Find Good Data?

On today’s show we are talking about the non headline revisions to economic data. 

I’m here to tell you beyond a shadow of a doubt that the US economy is in recession. 

What I’m sharing today is the good work that is done by Danielle DiMartino Booth. She is the CEO and chief strategist at QI Research. Previously Danielle was at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas for nine years working under Richard Fisher. 

This past FOMC meeting marked a significant departure from previous meetings where Fed chairman Jerome Powell described a change in Fed posture. This was not part of the initial remarks or the press release, but rather a response during the question period. 

He said that the Fed was shifting posture from fighting inflation to a return to its dual mandate to both maximize and maintain price stability. That means that the Fed is seeing something in the employment data that is concerning. On this show I’ve been reporting inconsistencies in the employment data for many months. 

Well now we have one more data point that categorically shows what is really happening in the jobs market. 

Every month the BLS puts out the payroll establishment survey and they publish the GDP for the nation. 

In addition to the payroll survey, the census bureau also conducts their own survey once a quarter. The data from the Census Bureau is much more comprehensive than the BLS survey. We also experience frequent revisions to the payroll survey. 

What the census data shows is that in the third quarter of 2023 instead of having 640,000 jobs created during that three month period, the economy actually lost 190,000 jobs in that time period. This is not a small difference. The narrative in the mainstream media is that the economy is strong and the consumer is resilient and the jobs market is strong. If the true data was being reported, I think it would be much more difficult to propagate that story.