Will a Full-Blown Global Economic Collapse Strike in 2023?

It's important to know something up front. I have NOT been a "Chicken Little" who was screaming about economic collapse for years. I didn't panic for Y2K. I didn't panic during the economic downturn of 2008-2009. I didn't freak out over Obamacare, at least not from an economic perspective. I believed that we could recover from the 2020 lockdowns. But by mid-2021 I finally started getting truly concerned and throughout 2022 I've been monitoring the nation's economy very closely.

Now, I'm ringing the alarm bells because the threat of full-blown global economic collapse is real as we go into 2023.

On today's episode of The JD Rucker Show, I covered several stories that highlight the dangerous trends we're seeing. Unfortunately, the Biden-Harris regime seems bent on making things even worse and the new Republican majority in the House doesn't seem willing or able to do much to stop it.

One of the prevailing stories giving people hope for the past couple of months is better-than-expected stock performance. Is this a sign that the tide is turning? According to Bloomberg and Zero Hedge, no. It's just a sign that markets expected good things to happen. Since they haven't, we shouldn't anticipate a stock market that continues to overperform:

Two Great Months for US Stocks Promise Too Much for Own Good

The markets have been front-running the idea of a Fed pivot for some time now. While that is far-fetched, one must still admit that a Fed pause after its funds rate reaches circa 5%-5.25% is very much on the cards. While pretty much everyone in the markets is primed for the idea of a US recession, November’s non-farm payroll numbers (and perhaps even more importantly, the hourly earnings rising at twice the forecast pace) suggest that this inflationary episode may be around longer than realized.

And that is a worse denouement than any stock investor would wish. Not only do you have a scenario where inflation is corroding the nominal coupon on stocks, but you also have to factor in a slowing economy where presumably there is also a drag on earnings. A scenario that weighs on both the numerator and denominator (a high interest-rate recession) is hardly a prescription for a stellar rally month after month.

At current levels, the S&P 500 offers an estimated earnings yield of around 5.40% and the Nasdaq 100 around 4.32%, hardly anything to write home about in an environment where you can invest in two-year Treasuries that offer 4.27%.

Yes, there may be something to be said for being a part of that smart-money brigade that has made a grand return of 20%+ within a quarter and fleeing to where the honey is next, but that is predicated more on getting the timing right -- an iffy proposition even with the most seasoned investors. For every one idea that works out as per plan, the nine that follow come a cropper. [read more]

Costco Reports Large-Scale Shortages as Essential Items Are Impossible to Find at Stores

On the second segment of today's show, I turned to the "Epic Economist" to deliver a dose of reality about Costco. It's a financial indicator some use to see what's really happening with the supply chain and the retain market. Here's a transcript followed by the individual video I played during today's show:

The pantry of most American families today is probably looking a lot different than it was just a few months ago when grocery prices were lower and we still could find the majority of the products we usually rely on in our day-to-day lives. But now, shoppers are increasingly noticing the ongoin