No Priors: Artificial Intelligence | Technology | Startups

Conviction
No Priors: Artificial Intelligence | Technology | Startups

At this moment of inflection in technology, co-hosts Elad Gil and Sarah Guo talk to the world's leading AI engineers, researchers and founders about the biggest questions: How far away is AGI? What markets are at risk for disruption? How will commerce, culture, and society change? What’s happening in state-of-the-art in research? “No Priors” is your guide to the AI revolution. Email feedback to show@no-priors.com. Sarah Guo is a startup investor and the founder of Conviction, an investment firm purpose-built to serve intelligent software, or "Software 3.0" companies. She spent nearly a decade incubating and investing at venture firm Greylock Partners. Elad Gil is a serial entrepreneur and a startup investor. He was co-founder of Color Health, Mixer Labs (which was acquired by Twitter). He has invested in over 40 companies now worth $1B or more each, and is also author of the High Growth Handbook.

  1. 13 HR AGO

    Forecasting the Future with Kalshi: America’s First Regulated Prediction Market

    In this week’s episode of No Priors, Sarah sits down with Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi—the first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the U.S. They dive into Kalshi’s recent victory to legalize election betting, explore ethical questions around trading on elections, and discuss whether prediction markets can offer more accuracy than traditional polls. Tarek shares insights on the history of futures markets, the line between gambling and financial trading, and the psychology behind betting. Plus, Sarah makes a live election bet, and Tarek reveals some of Kalshi’s most intriguing markets. Sign up for new podcasts every week. Email feedback to show@no-priors.com Follow us on Twitter: @NoPriorsPod | @Saranormous | @EladGil | @MansourTarek Show Notes:  0:00 Introduction 1:22 Sarah makes a live election bet on Kalshi 3:35 Getting approved and regulated by CFTC 5:48 Going up against the CFTC to legalize election betting 7:21 Debating the ethics of trading on elections 8:12 Gambling vs. trading  9:12 Context and purpose of futures markets 12:38 The human psychology behind speculating /Humans conditioned to risk taking 17:17 Building a healthy exchange and scaling liquidity  19:30 Introducing leverage and working with clearinghouses 22:29 Polls vs. prediction markets 24:59 Conditional markets 26:38 What makes Kalshi’s markets accurate 31:29 Tarek’s insights on the most interesting trades and markets on the platform

    36 min
  2. 24 OCT

    Waymo’s Journey to Full Autonomy: AI Breakthroughs, Safety, and Scaling

    In this episode of No Priors, Dmitri Dolgov, Co-CEO of Waymo, joins Sarah and Elad to explore the evolution and advancements of Waymo's self-driving technology from its inception at Google to its current real-world deployment. Dmitri also shares insights into the technological breakthroughs and complexities of achieving full autonomy, the design innovations of Waymo’s sixth generation driverless cars, and the broader applications of Waymo’s advanced technology. They also discuss Waymo's strategic approach to scaling amidst regulation, deployment in cities like Phoenix and San Francisco, and the transformative potential of autonomous driving on car ownership and urban infrastructure. Sign up for new podcasts every week. Email feedback to show@no-priors.com Follow us on Twitter: @NoPriorsPod | @Saranormous | @EladGil | @Dmitri_Dolgov Shownotes: 00:00 Introduction 00:15 History of Self-Driving at Google  00:29 DARPA Challenges and Early Involvement  01:39 Formation of Waymo  01:53 Industry Lineage and Early Skepticism  03:05 Initial Goals and Milestones  4:33 Pivot to Full Autonomy  04:50 Scaling and Deployment  05:29 Generational Breakthroughs  06:59 Choosing Deployment Cities  09:26 Technological Advancements  11:01 Evaluating Safety  14:41 Regulatory Stance and Trust  16:52 Future of Autonomous Driving  23:19 Business Strategy and Partnerships  26:06 Changing Urban Mobility Trends  26:40 Challenges and Misconceptions in Self-Driving Timelines  28:43 The Role of Traditional OEMs in an Autonomous Future  30:54 Designing Cars for Autonomous Ride-Hailing  33:42 Scaling Responsibly  35:18 Generalizability and Future Applications of AI  37:10 The Complexity of Achieving Full Autonomy  42:58 The Importance of Data and Iteration in AI Development  46:13 Reflecting on the Journey and Future of Waymo

    45 min
  3. 19 SEPT

    Transforming Customer Service through Company Agents, with Sierra’s Bret Taylor

    Bret Taylor, Cofounder of Sierra, Chairman of the board at OpenAI, and former co-CEO of Salesforce and CTO of Facebook, joins Sarah and Elad in this week’s episode of No Priors. Bret discusses building company-branded AI agents with unique personalities, goals, and guardrails at Sierra, and their potential to revolutionize customer engagement while cutting costs. The conversation explores the next sectors for enterprise AI adoption, building resilient AI products, and the parallels between today’s AI market and the evolution of the cloud industry. Bret also shares his unique insights on future business models and upcoming technology shifts. Sign up for new podcasts every week. Email feedback to show@no-priors.com Follow us on Twitter: @NoPriorsPod | @Saranormous | @EladGil | @Btaylor Show Notes: (0:00) Intro (0:42) Defining agentic systems and types of agents (3:55) Customer-facing company agents (5:43) Sierra AI (8:11) Transforming customer service and reducing costs (9:57) Challenges in implementing LLMs for company agents (14:45) Drawing parallels between AI and the cloud market’s evolution (17:50) Future of the AI landscape (19:15) Building durable AI products (24:39) Outcome-based business models and tangible ROI in AI solutions (29:22) Next wave of AI sectors for enterprise adoption (31:15) Customizing goals and guardrails with customers (35:55) Creating distinct personalities for Sierra's agents (41:05) Bret’s insights on upcoming technology and hardware shifts (46:50) How AI software could enhance human agency

    49 min

About

At this moment of inflection in technology, co-hosts Elad Gil and Sarah Guo talk to the world's leading AI engineers, researchers and founders about the biggest questions: How far away is AGI? What markets are at risk for disruption? How will commerce, culture, and society change? What’s happening in state-of-the-art in research? “No Priors” is your guide to the AI revolution. Email feedback to show@no-priors.com. Sarah Guo is a startup investor and the founder of Conviction, an investment firm purpose-built to serve intelligent software, or "Software 3.0" companies. She spent nearly a decade incubating and investing at venture firm Greylock Partners. Elad Gil is a serial entrepreneur and a startup investor. He was co-founder of Color Health, Mixer Labs (which was acquired by Twitter). He has invested in over 40 companies now worth $1B or more each, and is also author of the High Growth Handbook.

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