Eye On The Market

Michael Cembalest
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Eye On The Market

Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.

  1. 5 DAYS AGO

    "Kamilton": the 2024 election and who tells your story

    A reflection on the 2024 election and who tells your story. On Trump’s victory: market implications of a supply side boost from deregulation clashing against inflationary impulses of tariffs and deportations. The ten year Treasury will be the most reliable barometer of all. To conclude, an ode to vaccines and an RFK bibliography.

    20 min

  2. 17 OCT

    The Thucydides cap on the China equity rebound trade

    For participants in the China equity rebound trade: once you hit your return targets, take the money and run. Click here to read the full PDF and view the video.

    14 min

  3. 30 SEPT

    Mind the Gap: a historically polarized US election

    Candidate policy comparisons in a historically polarized US Election; China stimulus package The US is about to conduct its most polarized Presidential election in 100 years. Today’s note looks at candidate policy differences and implications for investors: government spending, taxation, tariffs, trade, immigration, regulation, NATO, energy, price controls and the Electoral College. We conclude with analysis of the China stimulus package, which might have a better chance of succeeding than recent failed efforts.

    29 min

  4. 3 SEPT

    A severe case of COVIDIA: prognosis for an AI-driven US equity market

    NVIDIA and its GPU customers are now a large driver of equity market returns, earnings growth, earnings revisions, industrial production and capital spending. View video here

    25 min

  5. 27 AUG

    There’s no place like home

    A surge in the Japanese Yen is resulting in home repatriation of Yen-funded positions overseas, and close-out of Yen-funded positions abroad. While Google was found guilty of home bias anti-competitive search engine behavior, any judicial remedies may be worse for recipients of Google’s “shelf space” payments than for Google itself. Work-from-home trends have plateaued at ~30%, which has important implications for distressed office investors. Most distressed sales now require discounts of 60%+ vs pre-COVID levels; the fundamentals of the office sector explain why. View video here

    19 min

  6. 23 JUL

    The Lion in Winter

    From 1930 to 2010, there were six extended periods of small cap outperformance as it dominated large cap over that entire period. But since 2010, small cap sits alongside value stocks and non-US stocks in the unholy trinity of underperforming portfolio strategies. While poor profit fundamentals argue against a prolonged period of outperformance vs large cap, small cap stocks are at their cheapest levels in the 21st century with potential market and political catalysts in their favor. First, a few words on the CrowdStrike outage. View video here

    17 min

  7. 9 JUL

    The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State

    The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State. Recent Supreme Court rulings may now usher in the largest pushback on the regulatory state since the Reagan Administration. A look at the end of Chevron deference, a revised statute of limitations for challenging government regulations, the Major Questions Doctrine, the right to a jury trial and a District Court injunction against Biden’s LNG export moratorium.

    20 min

  8. 6 JUN

    A Piece of the Action

    Investing in professional sports leagues and related businesses. As rules around private equity ownership of sports leagues expand, we review team valuations and profitability, emerging sports categories, streaming and broadcast revenues, the decline of regional sports networks, drivers and comparisons of league parity, relegation and financial pressures in the English Premier League, stadium subsidies, sport betting and other adjacent businesses, antitrust issues, the esports winter, the worst teams that money can buy and the best basketball players of all time. View video here

    9 min
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About

Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.

Information

  • Creator
    Michael Cembalest
  • Years Active
    2018 - 2024
  • Episodes
    100
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Copyright J.P. Morgan Asset Management 2023
  • Show Website
    Eye On The Market

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