50 episodes
NonProphets Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, Scott Eastman
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NonProphets is a weekly podcast about forecasting. The hosts became "superforecasters" based on the strength of their performances in the Good Judgment Project forecasting tournament, and they have continued to forecast on a wide array of topics with Good Judgment, Inc. In this podcast, they discuss their forecasting processes, and offer their analysis of questions on public forecasting platforms, such as the Good Judgment Open and Almanis, as well as other topics of interest to them. Most episodes end with a "Black Swan Hunt," in which they consider a momentous but low-probability event that may be more likely than many people think. Each episode is like the future: you can never be completely sure what will happen.
Feel free to reach us/contact us/praise us/harangue us/offer suggestions for forecasts or Black Swan Hunts by way of the following:
Blog: https://nonprophetspod.wordpress.com/
E-Mail: nonprophetspod@gmail.com
(Please note that the views expressed in this podcast are those of the speakers, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions, policies, or positions of any organization or its members, including any mentioned forecasting platform or organization. All content, including any written or spoken discussion, analysis, opinion, estimate, or, of course, forecast, reflects the judgment of the speaker or writer at a particular time. They are not promises or guarantees; rely on them at your own risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and this podcast is intended to entertain (the audience and ourselves) only. Forecasts are not prophecies, and they may change substantially and/or frequently due to new facts, a new evaluation of old facts, or a myriad of other factors. In fact, it's helpful to revisit, re-evaluate, and, if necessary, revise forecasts with some frequency. You have been warned.)
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A.I. - When D.A.N. met Sydney
Episode 101 of NonProphets, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss developments in artificial intelligence with Atief's friend Nathan, a businessman and engineer who recently attended a hack-a-thon devoted to A.I. projects. As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 2/20/2023).(Intro: Jonathan Richman & The Modern Lovers - I Have Come Out To Play)
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Ep. 100: Visits
Episode 100 of NonProphets, in which Scott discusses his recent humanitarian/food tourist trip to Ukraine (00:17), before Atief's four-year-old daughter Beatrice decides to drop in at the end of the podcast (30:46). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 6/10/2022)
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Ep. 99: James Bosworth on Latin American Politics
In episode 99 of NonProphets, Scott and Robert interview superforecaster and Latin American politics expert James Bosworth. We talk with Boz about the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Latin America (2:35); authoritarian populism in Latin America (15:22); the impact of the pandemic on Latin America (19:16); the anti-incumbency wave in Latin American politics (23:22); what Jair Bolsonaro will do if he loses the upcoming election in Brazil (33:51); the prospects for addressing corruption in Latin America (45:13); and whether the US pays enough attention to the region. Boz writes about Latin American politics on Substack at Latin America Risk Report (https://boz.substack.com/). You can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com (nonprophetspod.wordpress.com) or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com (mailto:nonprophetspod@gmail.com). (recorded 3/17/22)
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Ep. 98: Milo Jones on Intelligence Analysis
In episode 98 of NonProphets, Scott and Robert interview Dr. Milo Jones, a Visiting Fellow at the Oxford Changing Character of War Programme as well as a Visiting Professor at the IE Business School in Madrid. He is also the author Constructing Cassandra: Reframing Intelligence Failure at the CIA, 1947-2001. We talk with Dr. Jones about the value of cognitive diversity in intelligence work (2:04); how asking the right questions can help us avoid strategic surprise (14:48); the importance of communicating intelligence analysis (24:19); whether Putin is in Zugzwang in Ukraine (31:01); whether Chinese mediation could provide an off-ramp for Putin in Ukraine (35:11); improving strategic empathy for other identities and cultures (42:02); the role of psychological profiling (56:26); and the advantages of living in a free society (1:00:20). You can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com (mailto:nonprophetspod@gmail.com). (recorded 3/4/22)
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Ep. 97: Ukraine
Episode 97 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, Scott, and Dr. Balkan Devlen discuss the war in Ukraine, including their forecasts of the possibility of war (1:15), the possible mindset of Putin (4:18), the way Russia's relationship with China may shape the conflict (22:29), the "Animal Farm" approach to sovereignty (22:38), and the possibility of some form of escalation (41:26). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 2/25/2022)For more from the entertaining and deeply knowledgeable Dr. Devlen, you can and should check out:https://twitter.com/BalkanDevlen (https://twitter.com/BalkanDevlen)https://www.balkandevlen.com/ (https://www.balkandevlen.com/)Hindsight 20/20 https://h2020.substack.com (https://h2020.substack.com/)
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NonProphets 2022 Forecasts
In this episode Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss predictions for 2022. 0:24 Pantone failure4:06 Is 2022 unpredictable? (thanks to the Superforecaster community for suggestions)6:00 Will the pandemic fade?12:20 Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations: How have we changed and what are the impacts of the shift?16:45 The conflict in Ukraine27:15 Turkey – Erdogan and the economy33:30 US domestic politics (More Covid),38:20 Supreme Court cases (Roe v. Wade), 45:00 Mid-term elections52:50 What will be the biggest stories of 2022?59:05 Urea!You can find NonProphets on Blubrry (https://www.blubrry.com/nonprophets/), iTunes (https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/nonprophets/id1153928762), Spotify (https://open.spotify.com/show/7DXTunzwdz4mFrvajWrhQ4), Stitcher (http://www.stitcher.com/podcast/nonprophets-2/nonprophets?refid=stpr) and Google Play (https://play.google.com/music/listen#/ps/Irgn6npt6jsdzndlqge4rwe2ahq). As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page (https://nonprophetspod.wordpress.com/contact/) or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.
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