World of Oil Derivatives Greg Newman

Brent crude is consolidating around $82-83/bbl. The big story over the weekend was Iraq’s oil minister, Hayyan Abdul, saying on Saturday that Iraq would not agree to renew cuts, but flipped on Sunday, saying that Iraq will continue to cooperate with other member states about this cut. 
 Looking to the refinery margins, spreads have collapsed with stop outs driving the movement. There was a significant drop in RBBR, down to just $21.50/bbl in Jul. There has been a build in EIA gasoline stocks (900kbbls) and refinery utilisation is up 1% . 
 The big Macro news headlines have kicked off with Roaring Kitty returning to X (formally Twitter) yesterday, which has already resulted in a 70% rally for GameStop. The key data this week is U.S CPI expected to drop from 3.5% YoY to 3.4%. Reaction is critical, with 10yr at key levels. 4.40% is key support.
 Onto Googling Oil, the major headlines discussed this week are; Russia finding a huge gas and oil reserve in British Antarctic territory and  EU potentially calling time on Russian LNG imports.
 The trade idea for this week is; Short Q3 380 east west.

If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/\
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/

Welcome back to Macro Mondays with James Brodie - Trends, Risk & Analysis.
 
On today's show James looks back on last week's disappointing data, this weeks upcoming CPI data, and key levels in markets, particularly looking at equities, fixed income and also gold. 
 
Precious metals are rallying again. The PBOC bought gold for 18th straight month in April, adding 60k Troy ounces to its reserves. In fact, Global central banks have bought 2,100 tonnes of gold in the last 2 years.
 
James digs into why the stocks we couldn't stop hearing about, by the likes of Peloton, Beyond Meat, Zoom, Rivian and Lucid have fallen by up to 90%, while the S&P and Nasdaq are a fraction off making new all-time highs.
 
The big mover this week  was again cocoa. In one week, it has seen a 1-day fall by 15%, a 1-day rally by 13%. Both are the largest 1-day swings in 65 years.
 
If you would like to connect with any of your host, James Brodie or ask a question, you can follow him X (formally Twitter) @jamesrbrodie Or, follow him on LinkedIn by clicking the link below: James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/ #macronews #financenews #news #stocks #employment #economy #oott #oil #oilandgas #markets #crude #marketupdate #investing #finance #economics #derivatives #podcast #trading #bonds #nasdaq #s&p #gold #usdjpy

If you would like to access our free comprehensive monthly  oil report as mentioned in the podcast, click here: https://www.onyxhub.co/dashboards/oil-market-report-may/

In last week's podcast, we had started to see pressure in the crude futures contracts, and we've slid to a new low of this cycle today at $82.30/bbl.


Refinery margins were the major reason for bullish Brent over the past few months, however now it’s the major reason market sentiment has flipped. Margins have strengthened slightly week-on-week, but that’s on the basis of weaker crude competing against even weaker products. It’s a self-fulfilling cycle where weaker margins are dampening demand - which reinforces bearish sentiment for structure and spreads.


Our Macro Economic specialist, James Brodie, explains that CPI, PPI, Employment Cost Index and Unit Labour Costs have all come in above expectations, while employment data is suddenly deteriorating. This is the worst case for the Federal Reserve, whose chair Jeremy Powell last week revealed that he thinks it's unlikely the next rate move in the U.S. will be a hike.


The trade idea this week is to sell the European Naphtha crack in the prompt June contract. 


If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/\
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/

Chapters for this episode are: 
0:00 Welcome 
1:29 Brent Futures 
5:42 Macro market news 
13:55 Refinery margins 
20:30 Ones to watch & "Googling oil:" world oil news 
31:58 Trade idea of the week 
37:59 Poll results and outro

Welcome back to the third episode of Macro Mondays with James Brodie - Trends, Risk & Analysis.
On today's show James discusses softening economic data out of the US, where there are murmurs of stagflation, the less hawkish Fed Chairman Powell and the weaker than expected employment data.
He also examines the big movers for this week. USDJPY with 2 rounds of intervention and cocoa has also fallen 41.5% in just 3 days. There's no key economic data in the week ahead so the market will trend off the employment data. Geopolitical tensions also appear to be diminishing so keep an eye on the U.S. 2 year yields, the dollar index , the S&P and gold for key moves. 
If you would like to connect with any of your host, James Brodie. You can follow him X (formally Twitter) @jamesrbrodie Or, follow him on LinkedIn by clicking the link below: James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/

Brent futures opened at $87.50 per barrel, seeing a $1 decrease due to promising ceasefire negotiations, with a Hamas delegate heading to Cairo on Monday. The market is rather sanguine on geopolitical risk, and has been de-risking over the past week, with open interest in ETFs seeing a substantial decline.
 Looking to the refinery margin changes, the prompt European margin increased slightly over the week as stronger products outweighed stronger crude. There was notable strength observed in gasoline, naphtha, and 3.5% barges.
 This week, James focuses on mixed U.S. data, featuring weak GDP headlines but strong inflation components, potentially posing challenges for the Federal Reserve. Powell's press conference at this week's Fed meeting will be closely watched.
 In the "Googling Oil" segment, the prevailing headline revolves around oil pricing falling on Monday, signalling the possibility of Israel and Hamas engaging in ceasefire talks this week.
 Vincent's trade idea this week is to go short on the Q3 EBOB crack. You can find more details here: https://youtu.be/5CEovEVKGhI 
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/

Chapters for this episode are: 
0:00 Welcome 
1:00 Brent Futures 
7:06 Macro market news 
18:28 Refinery margins 
25:51 "Googling oil:" world oil news 
30:02 One to watch
32:36 Trade idea of the week
36:27 Poll results and outro

Welcome back to the second episode of Macro Mondays with James Brodie - Trends, Risk & Analysis.

On today's show James discusses recent mixed economic data out of the US, OIS pricing and the Yen volatility. He also dives into what's happening with gold, silver, tech and equity markets.
 
Looking at recent employment data, James explains that although employment data is strong, the jobs that are being created are part time jobs and full time jobs are being lost. In fact, 1.34 million fulltime jobs have been lost, which is not a good sign for the economy...
 
If you would like to connect with any of your host, James Brodie. You can follow him X (formally Twitter) @jamesrbrodie Or, follow him on LinkedIn by clicking the link below: James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/