170 episodes

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

Forward Guidance Jack Farley | Blockworks

    • Business
    • 5.0 • 10 Ratings

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

    Central Bankers vs. The Bond Market | Roger Hirst

    Central Bankers vs. The Bond Market | Roger Hirst

    Roger Hirst, managing editor at Real Vision Creative Studios and macro editor at Lykeion Research, joins Forward Guidance to share his macro outlook for 2023. Hirst tackles the ongoing fight in the bond market over the degree to which central banks - namely, The Bank of England, The Federal Reserve, and The European Central Bank - can keep interest rates at restrictive levels before being forced to “pivot” and cut rates. Hirst also shares his view on China, silver, and the labor market.
    Lykeion Research https://www.thelykeion.com/research/
    For more information about Real Vision Creative Studios, email customvideos@realvision.com
    This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Go to https://Public.com/forwardguidance to move your cash into a Treasury Account today.
    ___
    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
    https://rb.gy/5weeyw
    Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
    ___
    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
    __
    Timestamps:
    (00:00) Intro
    (04:31) Disconnect Between Central Banks And Markets
    (11:29) The Labor Market Is Tight But Not Strong"
    (14:36) Fighting Against The "Doomsday Scenario"
    (20:57) Base Case For 2023
    (24:09) Is Refinancing Risk Delayed?
    (29:40) Soft Landing Won't Happen But Plane Will Be Circling The Airport For Long Time
    (33:43) Public Ad
    (35:49) Controlled Explosions In China"
    (41:52) The Merging of Geopolitics and Macro
    (46:48) The Debt Supercycle
    (49:53) Actionable Trade Ideas: Copper, Silver, and Calls
    (56:23) Bonds and Oil
    (01:04:51) Private Equity
    (01:09:26) Recession Type and Length
    (01:15:59) The Power Of Changing Your Mind

    • 1 hr 19 min
    Jim Bianco on Fed Chair Powell's Reluctance To Discipline The Bulls (February 2023 FOMC)

    Jim Bianco on Fed Chair Powell's Reluctance To Discipline The Bulls (February 2023 FOMC)

    On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jim Bianco Founder of Bianco Research LLC joins the show alongside Mike Ippolito of On The Margin for a discussion on Powell's press conference on Wednesday 1st February.

    Markets started the new year with a strong rally seeing gains of around 7% in the S&P 500. Many anticipated a hawkish press conference from Jerome Powell in a bid to tighten financial conditions and try ease some of the "animal spirits" that we saw throughout 2021. Jim makes just that comparison. "This market is showing signs of 2021" with the most speculative and highest beta names rallying the most. We walk through Powell's comments in the press conference after raising rates 25 basis points and what the path ahead will mean for markets, the economy and most importantly inflation.
    --
    Follow Jim: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch
    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_
    Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod
    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
    --
    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
    --
    Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
    --
    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    • 1 hr 16 min
    What This Fed Watcher Is On The Lookout For | Colby Smith (February 2023 FOMC)

    What This Fed Watcher Is On The Lookout For | Colby Smith (February 2023 FOMC)

    With the February Fed meeting rapidly approaching, Jack Farley welcomes Colby Smith, U.S. economics editor for the Financial Times (FT), to share her expectations for the February meeting, and her insights about the transmission of the Fed’s policy to the market and the public. She argues that the disconnect between the rate cuts being priced into the interest rate futures market and the Federal Reserve’s own forecasts will be one of the most salient issues at tomorrow’s press conference with Fed Chair Jay Powell. Smith and Farley also discuss the latest economic data, the politics of the Fed, and the looming issue of the U.S. debt ceiling.
    Follow Colby Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/colbyLsmith
    Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
    This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.
    __
    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
    https://rb.gy/5weeyw
    Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
    --
    Timestamps:
    (00:41) Expectations For The Fed's February FOMC Meeting
    (09:24) Are Financial Conditions Too Loose?
    (18:26) "The Fed's Threshold For Pain Is A Lot Higher"
    (25:48) Forward Guidance
    (30:55) Curve Ad
    (32:00) Employment Costs & Other Economic Data
    (37:09) Will The Fed Hike Again In May (After It Likely Hikes Again in March)?
    (40:12) New Voting Members on The FOMC
    (43:26) Will Powell Be In "Attack Mode" Tomorrow?
    (47:49) The Fed's Balance Sheet & Quantitative Tightening (QT)
    (51:14) The Debt Ceiling
    (53:34) The Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility

    • 57 min
    Earnings Season Is Strong (So Far) | Sam Burns

    Earnings Season Is Strong (So Far) | Sam Burns

    Sam Burns, founder of Mill Street Research, explains why he thinks the bull market in stocks can last for much longer. He notes that many companies are still growing their earnings substantially despite inflation and economic uncertainty, and argues that the outperformance of cyclical stocks over defensive stocks is an indicator that the bull market in stocks has legs. Filmed on January 26, 2023.

    Follow Mill Street Research on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MillStResearch
    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
    Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:
    https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
    __
    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
    https://rb.gy/5weeyw
    Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
    __
    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
    __
    Timestamps:
    (00:00) Intro
    (00:35) Outlook for 2023
    (06:00) Cyclical Stocks Are Outperforming Defensive Stocks
    (11:37) Stocks vs. Bonds Valuations
    (17:17) Earnings Growth Outlook for S&P 500 Stocks
    (20:46) Incentives of Sell-Side Analysts
    (28:35) Earnings Revisions By Sector
    (31:30) Permissionless Plug
    (32:33) China, Gold Miners, and Airlines
    (37:06) European Stocks
    (43:35) What Is Sam Most Bearish On?
    (45:53) The Fed
    (55:40) Inverted Yield Curve

    • 1 hr
    The Bear Market Ended Months Ago, Says Master of Turning Points | Milton Berg

    The Bear Market Ended Months Ago, Says Master of Turning Points | Milton Berg

    Milton Berg is a quiet legend of technical analysis whose work is regularly used by the world’s most accomplished investors. He joins Jack Farley to share his reading of specific patterns in the market that to him are strong bullish indicators. Berg argues that the recession already occurred in 2022 and that the best time to buy stocks is coming out a recession. Berg shares with Farley in-depth analysis of the breadth and volume characteristics of recent price action that make him think that the bear market is over. Berg is particularly constructive on China and gold miners, and in addition he and Farley debate the meaning of the steep yield curve inversion.

    Milton Berg Advisors is a boutique consulting and research firm that offers investment advisory services exclusively to institutional investors. More info can be found at https://miltonberg.com/.

    Follow Milton Berg on Twitter https://twitter.com/BergMilton
    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:
    https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
    __
    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
    https://rb.gy/5weeyw

    Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos

    __
    Timestamps:
    (00:00) Intro
    (00:34) Milton Berg's Way Of Analyzing Markets
    (09:31) A Transition From Inflation To Recession Is Bullish For Stocks
    (12:13) Comparison To Dot-Com Crash
    (17:24) "The Market Bottomed In June"
    (21:12) Bullish On Chinese & U.S. Stocks
    (29:37) Permissionless Plug
    (30:39) But What About Bear Market Rallies?
    (42:58) "I Have Zero Sell Signals"
    (45:08) But What About The Inverted Yield Curve?
    (47:44) The Unemployment Rate
    (56:53) China Stocks and Gold
    (01:04:44) Milton Berg's Outlook on Treasury Bonds
    __
    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    • 1 hr 10 min
    Dusting Off The Recession Playbook | Tian Yang

    Dusting Off The Recession Playbook | Tian Yang

    The last time Tian Yang, founder of Variant Perception, appeared on Forward Guidance in August 2022, he gave viewers a well-timed warning that the commodity supercycle was “on hold.” Now, he returns to argues that the world is well on its way to a global recession that will provide a hostile environment for risk assets. Yang shares his “equity bottom checklist” with Jack Farley to argue that equities have much more down to fall, and he explains why he thinks risk-off assets like bonds will perform well. Yang expects a “blow-out” of credit spreads and he thinks that the U.S. dollar will perform less well against other currencies than it does in a typical recession. Filmed on January 12th, 2023.

    Follow Variant Perception on Twitter https://twitter.com/VrntPerception
    Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
    This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.
    __
    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
    https://rb.gy/5weeyw
    Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
    __
    Timestamps:
    (00:00) Intro
    (01:36) Base Case For 2023
    (04:14) Where's The Recession?
    (08:11) Liquidity
    (18:25) Housing and Manufacturing Are Weak
    (24:21) Interest Rates
    (28:05) Cruve Ad
    (29:08) China
    (33:36) Underweight Equities (Asset Allocation Part 1)
    (43:03) The Checklist For A Market Bottom
    (47:19) Incredibly Rare Set-up in Gold"
    (48:43) Overweight Bonds (Asset Allocation Part 2)
    (55:19) Neutral On Commodities (Asset Allocation Part 3)
    (01:02:26) The U.S. Dollar
    (01:05:13) The Most Crowded Trade In Macro Right Now
    (01:11:22) The VIX in 2023

    • 1 hr 13 min

Customer Reviews

5.0 out of 5
10 Ratings

10 Ratings

fiernod ,

excellent

excellent insights from joseph, jim and nick in the last couple of episodes. moderated intelligently by jack who asks the right questions and adds his own insights too👍

Fghuiop ,

Jacob Shapiro

show (8/22) was superb

Red Lionfish ,

On the up and up

One of the best free shows out there at the moment. Great guests with interesting ideas and a wealth of knowledge. You don’t have to agree with everything, and I just pick and choose which episodes to listen to, but I’ve been listening a lot to it lately :)

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