45 - Nope! Supply shock is a fantasy. Remain rational and realistic.

I discuss whether sustainable supply shocks are possible in Bitcoin and provide some statistics that show how $100B of new sell pressure showed up in the market as price rose from 60K to 100K. Supply shock is a fantasy. Remain rational and realistic. Bitcoin Supply Shock theory says that most coins are taken out of circulation forever and at some point we will run out of coins, which will lead to astronomical price appreciation. If this is true, we might get $1M next year. Well, that is not gonna happen because as soon as coins are short, price will surely rise, but it will also certainly bring new supply online, which prevents the supply shock from happening. Evidence? Long-term holders have sold 1.2M coins during the run from $64K to $100K, i.e., $100B worth of new sell pressure. This is why we spend months consolidating after every big jump. Bitcoin is the scarcest asset on earth. But it will not remain out of equilibrium for a long time. It is actually also very very liquid. Everyone everywhere and at every hour can take profit. And they will. The conclusion is that price will grow reasonably fast due to adoption, but an explosion due to supply shock is a fantasy.