Behind the Markets Podcast Behind the Markets on Wharton Business Radio

Show from 05/03/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest economic data and market reactions. Prof. Siegel highlights the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to maintain patience in policy adjustments amidst mixed economic signals, notably the unexpected benefits of subdued wage growth and soft payroll numbers, despite persistent price pressures in certain sectors. (12:08) The conversation then transitions to guests Constance and Samuel, who delve into economic forecasts and the impact of ongoing inflation trends on future Federal Reserve actions. Samuel emphasizes the need to pay attention to businesses rather than only focusing on what The Fed releases. Constance gives great examples of productivity around AI. The group tackles global economic conditions affecting markets today. They discuss energy prices all the way to international manufacturing shifts.

Guests: Hunter holds a BA in Economics and Sociology from New York University, a master's degree from Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, and the Certified Business Economist designation. She is an expert in macroeconomic and industry analysis and is recognized for being among the first economists to forecast pivotal economic events, including the impacts of COVID-19 on the US and other global economies, the 2007 real estate and credit crisis, and the 2001 burst of the Dotcom bubble. Hunter joins AIG from KPMG, where she served as a chief economist since 2013 and a member of the growth and strategy leadership team since 2020. Previously, she has served as a deputy chief investment officer at AXA Investment Managers, where she helped lead the management of over $500 billion in fixed-income assets.

Samuel Rines is the Managing Director of CORBU, a research intelligence and advisory platform at the intersection of markets, policy, and national security. Based in CORBU’s Houston, Texas office, Samuel is a global macro expert focused on the investment implications of politics and policy. His PolyMacro research and model portfolios are widely followed.

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Show from 04/26/24

Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Jeremy Siegel dive into this week's market dynamics, starting with a discussion on the unexpectedly low GDP report. Professor Siegel shares his concerns but offers a more optimistic outlook based on detailed analysis of positive economic data indicators, suggesting a better performance in the upcoming quarters. (14:52) Jeremy transitions to guest Jason Hsu of Reliant Global Advisors. The two focus their discussion on the investment landscape in Asia, particularly China and Japan. They assess the valuation of Chinese markets amidst geopolitical tensions. They continue by exploring broader implications for emerging markets, with a comparative analysis of regional investment strategies.

Guest: Jason Hsu is the founder and chairman of Rayliant Global Advisors. Throughout his accomplished career, Jason’s commitment to academic rigor and investor advocacy have led him to research, develop, and bring to market investment strategies that create significant value for investors. At Rayliant, Jason is continuing that commitment by educating investors and offering products to transform the investment ecosystem in Asia and beyond. Prior to his current role, Jason was the co-founder and vice chairman of Research Affiliates.

Learn more about Jason at: https://rayliant.com/team/jason-hsu/

Follow Jason on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jasonchsu

Show from 04/19/24


Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Jeremy Siegel begin the discussion by addressing the latest Federal Reserve's maneuvers regarding interest rates. Professor Siegel offers his insights, suggesting cautious optimism due to the strong job market, despite the Fed's conservative stance on upcoming rate cuts. He details how current economic indicators could lead to adjustments in future monetary policy, emphasizing the dual mandate of the Fed to monitor inflation and employment. (13:15) The conversation shifts to Rob Sluymer, Technical Strategist at RBC Wealth Management. Rob brings a unique perspective on the market, focusing on the S&P 500's potential through the lens of technical analysis and market cycles. He offers detailed forecasts, analyzing how long-term cycles could influence immediate investment opportunities and market trends, emphasizing the necessity for investors to recognize and adapt to these cycles for strategic planning.

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Show from 04/12/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel start off this week's episode by discussing a potential attack by Iran on Israel, inflation panic and moving markets. The Prof continues on to pinpoint which shift in the market led to the inflation panic. He suspects quarter one will come ahead of current expectations. (12:06) Jeremy is joined by Aaron as the two talk about the current AI moment and the opportunities it presents. He discusses cyber security and how AI technology can protect from hackers. Jeremy asks about Team 8 and the model they have created. Aaron talks about the intersection of AI and geopolitics and its effects on Team 8. Aaron comments on Europe's regulations surrounding AI. Aaron also discusses the cloud, the Linux hack and the LoanDepot attack.

Guest: Aaron Dubin is the VP of Strategy & Business Research at Team8, where he is responsible for business research at the company and foundry level, in addition to targeted business development, and thought leadership. Previously, Aaron led early-stage strategic cyber investing in New York at Goldman Sachs’ Principal Strategic Investments (PSI) team. Prior to that, Aaron was an Investment Associate at Innovation Endeavors, Former Google Chairman Eric Schmidt’s private VC fund, in both Tel Aviv and New York, while also working as a Teaching Assistant at Cornell Tech in the MBA program.

Learn more about Aaron at: https://team8.vc/team/aaron-dubin/

Follow Aaron on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/aaron-dubin-0aa42842

Show from 04/05/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel report on another positive week in the market. The Prof notes the payroll report was strong. He was happy to see average hourly work increase. The Prof mentions to watch for CPI, PPI and commodity pricing in the coming weeks. Peter joins in quickly to state he isn’t as concerned as Professor Siegel about the commodity prices. He is worried about the labor market however. (16:26) Peter and Jeremy continue on to discuss Peter's notes on the odds of a global recession. Jeremy asks about the growth of M2 and if it ties into banking dynamics. Peter covers sectors he favors at this time given the state of the economy and his early prediction of a recession. Peter explains what a Macro Quant model is and how his team uses it. The two discuss where rates could potentially go moving forward given the strong restrictions at the time.

Guest: Peter is currently BCA Research’s Chief Global Strategist and Research Director. Since joining BCA Research in 2010, he has served as Managing Editor of The Bank Credit Analyst as well as helping to develop and launch BCA Research’s Equity Analyzer Service. Peter focuses on analyzing global economic and financial market trends. Prior to BCA Research, Peter worked as a Senior Global Economist with Goldman Sachs. Peter has also spent time in the research department of the International Monetary Fund. Peter has a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from McMaster University, a Master of Science from the London School of Economics, and a PhD in Economics from the University of Toronto.

Learn more about Peter at: https://www.bcaresearch.com/about-us/our-strategists/peter-berezin-gis

Follow Peter on X(Twitter): @PeterBerezinBCA

Show from 03/29/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin this holiday weekend with positive reflections on the market. Inflation numbers came out as expected. The Prof notes a surprise rise in personal spending and a decline in the housing prices. (7:20) Dan joins Jeremy and Chris Gannatti to discuss where we are in the current tech cycle. The group talks about the Metaverse, AI development and collaborations between Google and Apple. Jeremy asks if they think there will be competition in the infrastructure as time goes on. The three discuss the potential benefits companies get by investing in Nvidia. Dan and Chris also comment on overseas risks involved with tech and lack of demand from Asia.

Guest: Daniel Ives is a Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst covering the Technology sector at Wedbush Securities since 2018. Dan has been a tech analyst on Wall Street for over two decades covering the software and the broader technology sector. He spent the first few years of his career as a financial analyst at HBO and then received his MBA in Finance before becoming a globally known technology equity research analyst and Managing Director with FBR Capital Markets for 16 years, focusing on the enterprise software/hardware sectors including cyber security, cloud computing, big data technology, and the mobile landscape. A major area of his research focus is electric vehicles and disruptive technology over the next decade.

Learn more about Dan at: https://www.wedbush.com/analysts/daniel-ives/

Follow Dan on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/daniel-ives-542321a8

Chris Gannatti is Head of Research at WisdomTree Europe

Follow him on x(Twitter): @CGannatti