Behind the Markets Podcast Behind the Markets on Wharton Business Radio

Show from 04/12/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel start off this week's episode by discussing a potential attack by Iran on Israel, inflation panic and moving markets. The Prof continues on to pinpoint which shift in the market led to the inflation panic. He suspects quarter one will come ahead of current expectations. (12:06) Jeremy is joined by Aaron as the two talk about the current AI moment and the opportunities it presents. He discusses cyber security and how AI technology can protect from hackers. Jeremy asks about Team 8 and the model they have created. Aaron talks about the intersection of AI and geopolitics and its effects on Team 8. Aaron comments on Europe's regulations surrounding AI. Aaron also discusses the cloud, the Linux hack and the LoanDepot attack.

Guest: Aaron Dubin is the VP of Strategy & Business Research at Team8, where he is responsible for business research at the company and foundry level, in addition to targeted business development, and thought leadership. Previously, Aaron led early-stage strategic cyber investing in New York at Goldman Sachs’ Principal Strategic Investments (PSI) team. Prior to that, Aaron was an Investment Associate at Innovation Endeavors, Former Google Chairman Eric Schmidt’s private VC fund, in both Tel Aviv and New York, while also working as a Teaching Assistant at Cornell Tech in the MBA program.

Learn more about Aaron at: https://team8.vc/team/aaron-dubin/

Follow Aaron on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/aaron-dubin-0aa42842

Show from 04/05/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel report on another positive week in the market. The Prof notes the payroll report was strong. He was happy to see average hourly work increase. The Prof mentions to watch for CPI, PPI and commodity pricing in the coming weeks. Peter joins in quickly to state he isn’t as concerned as Professor Siegel about the commodity prices. He is worried about the labor market however. (16:26) Peter and Jeremy continue on to discuss Peter's notes on the odds of a global recession. Jeremy asks about the growth of M2 and if it ties into banking dynamics. Peter covers sectors he favors at this time given the state of the economy and his early prediction of a recession. Peter explains what a Macro Quant model is and how his team uses it. The two discuss where rates could potentially go moving forward given the strong restrictions at the time.

Guest: Peter is currently BCA Research’s Chief Global Strategist and Research Director. Since joining BCA Research in 2010, he has served as Managing Editor of The Bank Credit Analyst as well as helping to develop and launch BCA Research’s Equity Analyzer Service. Peter focuses on analyzing global economic and financial market trends. Prior to BCA Research, Peter worked as a Senior Global Economist with Goldman Sachs. Peter has also spent time in the research department of the International Monetary Fund. Peter has a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from McMaster University, a Master of Science from the London School of Economics, and a PhD in Economics from the University of Toronto.

Learn more about Peter at: https://www.bcaresearch.com/about-us/our-strategists/peter-berezin-gis

Follow Peter on X(Twitter): @PeterBerezinBCA

Show from 03/29/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin this holiday weekend with positive reflections on the market. Inflation numbers came out as expected. The Prof notes a surprise rise in personal spending and a decline in the housing prices. (7:20) Dan joins Jeremy and Chris Gannatti to discuss where we are in the current tech cycle. The group talks about the Metaverse, AI development and collaborations between Google and Apple. Jeremy asks if they think there will be competition in the infrastructure as time goes on. The three discuss the potential benefits companies get by investing in Nvidia. Dan and Chris also comment on overseas risks involved with tech and lack of demand from Asia.

Guest: Daniel Ives is a Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst covering the Technology sector at Wedbush Securities since 2018. Dan has been a tech analyst on Wall Street for over two decades covering the software and the broader technology sector. He spent the first few years of his career as a financial analyst at HBO and then received his MBA in Finance before becoming a globally known technology equity research analyst and Managing Director with FBR Capital Markets for 16 years, focusing on the enterprise software/hardware sectors including cyber security, cloud computing, big data technology, and the mobile landscape. A major area of his research focus is electric vehicles and disruptive technology over the next decade.

Learn more about Dan at: https://www.wedbush.com/analysts/daniel-ives/

Follow Dan on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/daniel-ives-542321a8

Chris Gannatti is Head of Research at WisdomTree Europe

Follow him on x(Twitter): @CGannatti

Show from 03/22/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss this week's market and Powels dovish announcement. The Prof states that the Fed believes trends are decreasing however he feels the economy is still moving along nicely. He notes that deflationary forces have begun to ease up. David joins to give his market opinion alongside the Prof as the two discuss their opposing views. (23:42) David continues with Jeremy to talk about how he forecasts the market with his business. Jeremy asks David about consumer sales and how it’s affecting some of the luxury brands. David touches on topics like the employment report, and recent comments from Bullard. He gives his case on why he loves the Japanese Market. David also talks about India as another alternative market to China.

Guest: David is the Founder and President of Rosenberg Research. Prior to Rosenberg Research, David was Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. from 2009 to 2019. From 2002 to 2009, he was Chief North American Economist at Merrill Lynch in New York. During this time, he was consistently ranked in the Institutional Investor All-Star analyst rankings. Prior thereto, he was Chief Economist and Strategist for Merrill Lynch Canada, based out of Toronto, where he and his team placed first in the Brendan Wood survey of Canadian economists for ten years in a row. Mr. Rosenberg is a frequent contributor to major financial newspapers and publications in North America and makes regular TV appearances in the financial media. He received both a Bachelor of Arts and Master of Arts degree in Economics from the University of Toronto.

Learn more about David at: https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/

Follow David on X(Twitter): @EconguyRosie

Show from 03/15/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel dig in this week on the most current market information, starting off by talking about the CPI and PPI outcomes. The Prof states the market seems to have bottomed out and is not going lower. Tom and Professor Seigel agree that the commercial real estate market has really suffered. (13:31) Jeremy continues on with Tom who gives us a breakdown of what Ready Capital is all about. Tom talks through a normal transaction cycle and explains bridge financing. He comments on how interest rates have impacted the commercial real estate market. Jeremy asks about commercial mortgage REITs and the discounts people are seeing. Tom also gives us more details on how their SBA loans work and what pressures he sees in the banking community.

Guest: Thomas Capasse serves as Chairman of our board of directors, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Investment Officer. Mr. Capasse is also a Principal and co-founder of Ready Capital’s external manager, Waterfall Asset Management, LLC. Prior to founding our Manager, Mr. Capasse managed the principal finance groups at Greenwich Capital from 1995 until 1997, Nomura Securities from 1997 until 2001, and Macquarie Securities from 2001 until 2004. Mr. Capasse has significant and long standing experience in the securitization market as a founding member of Merrill Lynch’s ABS Group (1983—1994) with a focus on MBS transactions (including the initial Subprime Mortgage and Manufactured Housing ABS) and experience in many other ABS sectors. Mr. Capasse began his career as a fixed income analyst at Dean Witter and Bank of Boston. Mr. Capasse received a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Bowdoin College in 1979.

Learn more about Thomas at: https://readycapital.com/professionals/thomas-capasse/

Follow Thomas on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/tom-capasse-6470782

Show from 03/08/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin by discussing this week's exciting market moves. The Prof says this week’s employment report is very good, revising the shocking report from January. He continues by diving into the Nvidia stock and his 10 year prediction confirmation. (11:17) Art joins Jeremy to discuss everything oil and energy. He begins by talking about energy blindness and energies overall underrepresentation in economic importance. Jeremy asks about natural gas, its excess production and Europe's involvement. The two discuss the Bakken break-even, if technology will increase production and drilling wells too close together. Art also talks about renewables and policies we are exploring that might not be the best.

Guest: Art Berman is an energy consultant with 40 years in petroleum geology and a degree in Middle Eastern history. His comparative inventory approach is a guiding light for traders, investors, and policymakers. Art is an adjunct lecturer at the University of Houston, an expert witness, and a keynote speaker. His clientele spans from ambitious investors to globe-spanning corporations.

Learn more about Art at: https://www.artberman.com

Follow Art on X(Twitter): @aeberman12