The Energy Show

Crux Investor
  • 0.0 (0)
  • INVESTING
  • UPDATED SEMIWEEKLY
The Energy Show

A guide to all things uranium with Brandon Munro and other uranium experts.

  1. APR 14

    Uranium Market Broken Despite Growing Need

    Recording date: 10th of April, 2025 The uranium industry faces a significant structural supply deficit according to recent analysis of market conditions. The "Red Book," published by the Nuclear Energy Agency and International Atomic Energy Agency, relies on outdated data from 2021 and presents overly optimistic projections about uranium production capabilities and timelines. Chris Frostad, CEO of Purepoint Uranium, highlights how production from existing mines is already 10-12% below forecasts made just months earlier. The industry reporting methodology creates a misleading picture by stacking different supply sources - existing mines, restarts, developments, and proposed projects - without accounting for consistent underperformance across the sector. "This isn't a demand problem or demand story, it's a supply story," notes Frostad, emphasizing that even without additional reactor construction, current demand already exceeds reliable supply capabilities. Only three "committed" uranium projects are expected to be in production by 2026, all facing significant obstacles. Even established producers consistently struggle with production targets - Cigar Lake operates below technical capacity, Kazatomprom typically achieves only 75-90% of stated capacity, and Langer Heinrich's production targets were cut from 6 million to 3 million pounds before operations were suspended. Production costs are increasing as easily accessible deposits are depleted. The amount of uranium resources minable under $60/lb is shrinking drastically, while technical challenges affect even in-situ recovery operations that typically offer better margins. Despite these supply constraints, uranium prices haven't responded as expected. Spot prices hover around $60/lb with term contract prices at approximately $80/lb - insufficient to incentivize many new projects. This "pricing paradox" stems partly from information asymmetry in the market, where major utilities and producers have visibility into contract terms and inventory levels that other participants lack. Companies with existing production and strong balance sheets, like Cameco, Kazatomprom, and Orano, appear best positioned in the current environment. Development-stage projects face significant hurdles without demonstrated technical capability to produce. Recent geopolitical developments may provide some positive factors, with increased domestic support for resource development in countries like Canada and the United States potentially benefiting uranium projects in stable jurisdictions. For investors, patience and careful company selection are essential. The structural supply deficit appears real, but successful investment requires distinguishing between companies with realistic production capabilities and those whose projections may prove to be, in Frostad's words, "fairy dust and unicorns." Learn more: https://cruxinvestor.com/categories/commodities/uranium Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

    50 min

  2. MAR 20

    The Right Way to Hunt for Uranium

    With Chris Frostad, President & CEO, and Scott Frostad, VP Exploration of Purepoint Uranium Recording date: 18th March 2025 In a recent discussion, PurePoint Uranium's President & CEO Chris Frostad and VP of Exploration Scott Frostad shared valuable insights into uranium exploration strategies in the Athabasca Basin of northern Saskatchewan, one of the world's premier uranium districts known for exceptionally high-grade deposits. The Frostad brothers emphasized the methodical approach required for successful uranium exploration, highlighting the critical role of geophysical surveys before committing to expensive drilling campaigns. According to Scott Frostad, magnetic surveys reveal underlying basement rock characteristics, with explorers looking for specific indicators: magnetic lows indicating softer rocks, graphite conductors, and structural features like faults where fluid flow might concentrate. "The magnetics will tell you the different rock types in the basement. The Sandstone is magnetically invisible," explained Scott, noting that prime exploration targets emerge where multiple favorable features converge. The discussion highlighted the tension exploration companies face between thorough geological work and market expectations. "It's very difficult for us from an investor standpoint because for all of this work... none of which poked a hole through a deposit, which is really the inflection point for investors," Chris noted. Scott added their philosophy: "We've always kind of worked on the mantra that if we act like a major, maybe someone will treat us like a major." Uranium exploration in the Athabasca Basin presents unique technical challenges, including maintaining hole integrity through varied rock layers and dealing with pressurized water zones. Scott described their experience at Spitfire: "It was the fifth drilling company, believe it or not, that finally figured out how to get through this water." Such difficulties can lead to lost equipment, increased costs, and project delays. For evaluating exploration news, the Frostads provided useful benchmarks: natural background uranium levels typically range from 10-50 ppm, with 500 ppm intersections considered significant for guiding follow-up drilling. The Saskatchewan government considers 0.1% U3O8 over 10 meters significant enough to require special environmental measures. The brothers also shared a cautionary tale about Orano's exploration at the McClean pods, where initial promising results were followed by diminishing returns, leading the company to abandon the area. When they returned a decade later, they found "7½% over 10 meters, much to everybody's shock and awe," illustrating how significant deposits can be missed by mere meters. This conversation reveals that successful uranium exploration requires geological expertise, capital discipline, and systematic approaches to maximize discovery probability while minimizing expenditure. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

    52 min

  3. MAR 16

    Uranium Market Faces Supply Challenges Amid Complex Forces & Skill Shortages

    Recording date: 13th March 2025 The uranium market is experiencing significant turbulence as spot prices have dropped from highs in the $70-80 range to around $64 per pound. This decline stems from multiple factors including A&U's inventory liquidation, Trump administration tariff uncertainties, and ongoing geopolitical tensions with Russia. Despite this short-term volatility, industry experts see strong structural demand drivers emerging. Traditional nuclear utilities continue to require approximately 175 million pounds annually – remarkably stable compared to 20 years ago – while new demand sources are materializing. Small modular reactors (SMRs) are gaining traction globally, even in countries like Germany that previously rejected nuclear power. Additionally, data centers and AI companies are increasingly viewing nuclear as a reliable power source for their energy-intensive operations, with many signing onto the "tripling of nuclear declaration" at a recent Houston conference. Supply constraints remain a significant challenge. Even restarting previously operational mines has proven difficult, as evidenced by enCore Energy's recent setbacks. Meanwhile, new projects face extended timelines, with NexGen's final permitting hearings delayed until late 2025, potentially pushing production start to 2030-2031. Current uranium prices remain below the incentive levels needed for greenfield development, creating a potential supply gap in the coming years. Utility procurement strategies are evolving in response to these dynamics. Many are moving away from formal RFPs toward continuous market presence with more flexible contracting approaches. However, this transition may be challenging as most utilities lack the decision-making structures for rapid market participation. Geopolitically, the market is increasingly bifurcated. China continues aggressive procurement, reportedly purchasing 40% of term contract volume from Kazakhstan last year, while Western producers struggle with financing challenges. Political instability in key uranium-producing regions like Niger further complicates the supply picture. Industry consolidation appears inevitable as smaller producers struggle to remain viable. Garrow suggests the future belongs to larger producers capable of 5-8 million pounds annual production, as companies producing under 1 million pounds annually may no longer be sustainable. For investors, the uranium thesis rests on the growing gap between supply capabilities and emerging demand. Despite current price weakness, structural factors suggest higher prices will be necessary to incentivize sufficient production to meet both traditional and emerging demand sources in this critical energy transition material. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

    1h 10m

  4. MAR 2

    Long-term Uranium Investors Find Value in Volatility

    Interview with Troy Boisjoli, CEO of ATHA Energy, and Colin Healey, CEO of Premier American Uranium Recording date: 28th February 2025 The uranium sector presents a compelling investment case underpinned by a persistent supply-demand imbalance that continues to widen. Despite recent equity price volatility, the fundamental thesis remains firmly intact: global uranium production meets only 80% of current demand, creating a structural deficit that secondary supplies and inventory drawdowns cannot indefinitely address. Term uranium prices have maintained strength at $80 per pound while spot prices have retreated to around $65, creating what industry experts describe as a significant disconnect between market fundamentals and equity valuations. This gap between term and spot prices historically attracts the "carry trade," where traders contract with utilities at term prices while purchasing in the spot market, potentially providing a floor for uranium prices moving forward. Investor sentiment in the uranium sector has been heavily influenced by spot price movements, sometimes overshadowing significant operational achievements by companies in the space. This sentiment-driven volatility creates periodic dislocations between company fundamentals and share price performance, presenting opportunities for investors with longer time horizons to accumulate quality assets at discounted valuations. The supply side of the uranium equation faces substantial challenges. Major production centers like Cigar Lake are scheduled for depletion by 2036, while other significant operations face aging infrastructure and declining output. Technical difficulties at existing mines - from flooding issues to restart problems - highlight the complexities involved in uranium production. These challenges, combined with the long lead times required to bring new mines online, create a scenario where supply responses to increased demand will face significant friction. Global nuclear capacity is projected to double by 2040, requiring approximately 300 million pounds of annual uranium production - far exceeding current output levels of around 150 million pounds. This projection doesn't account for emerging technologies like small modular reactors or increased electricity demand from AI and data centers, suggesting actual requirements could be even higher. Contracting activity is showing encouraging signs of acceleration. US utility contracting increased 50% in 2024 compared to 2023 levels, and early 2025 has already reached 50% of the previous year's volume. Historically, periods of increased contracting activity correlate strongly with upward uranium price movements, potentially foreshadowing similar dynamics in the current market cycle. Geopolitical factors add another dimension to the investment thesis. Western nations are actively reducing dependence on Russian nuclear fuel cycle services, creating supportive policy environments for domestic uranium production. This shift favors companies with assets in politically stable jurisdictions like the United States and Canada. For investors seeking exposure to this thesis, companies like Premier American Uranium and Atha Energy offer distinct approaches. Premier focuses on US energy independence with advanced projects in New Mexico and Wyoming, while Atha Energy provides scale with its 43 million pound resource at Angulak that shows expansion potential to nearly 100 million pounds. The current market environment provides a potentially attractive entry point for investors who understand the fundamental supply-demand dynamics driving the uranium sector. While short-term volatility will likely continue, the structural deficit appears poised to drive prices higher as utilities compete for increasingly scarce uranium resources in the coming years. — Learn more: https://cruxinvestor.com/categories/commodities/uranium https://cruxinvestor.com/companies/atha-energy https://cruxinvestor.com/companies/premier-american-uranium Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

    42 min

  5. FEB 25

    The Uranium Major-Junior Divide

    Interview with Chris Frostad, President & CEO of Purepoint Uranium. Recording date: 24th February 2025 The uranium sector presents a unique investment opportunity characterized by high concentration among producers, with approximately 10 companies accounting for over 90% of global production. This concentrated landscape creates distinctive dynamics that differ significantly from other commodity markets like gold or copper, where mid-tier producers form a bridge between majors and juniors. For investors considering uranium in 2025, understanding these structural realities is essential to navigating the space effectively. The market currently finds itself in what many consider a structural upcycle, with pricing establishing a significantly higher floor than previous cycles while still experiencing periods of consolidation that test investor patience. Unlike previous downturns, most industry observers believe uranium prices are unlikely to return to the $25 per pound range seen in earlier years, creating an asymmetric risk profile with potentially limited downside from current levels. For junior uranium companies, the path to value creation differs substantially from the narratives often presented in corporate communications. While many juniors publicly state intentions to advance projects to production independently, economic realities make this virtually impossible for most. The capital-intensive nature of uranium mining, combined with heavy regulatory burdens and complex technical requirements, creates barriers that few juniors can realistically overcome. Instead, most junior companies' realistic path to monetization involves making themselves attractive acquisition targets for the handful of major producers that dominate the sector. Evaluating junior uranium investments requires understanding what makes projects attractive to potential acquirers. This includes geographical positioning, with proximity to existing processing infrastructure being crucial given that transportation costs can represent up to half of a project's operating expenses. Technical compatibility with existing processing facilities is equally important, with uranium grade needing to align with what current mills are permitted and configured to process. Paradoxically, grades can be both too high and too low to be attractive depending on the specific processing capabilities of potential acquirers. Jurisdictional considerations add another layer of complexity. In the United States, projects must generally be located within economic hauling distance of the limited existing mill infrastructure to be viable. Meanwhile, in Canada's Athabasca Basin, different parameters apply to what constitutes an attractive development project. These regional distinctions mean that applying universal metrics across different uranium districts can lead to flawed investment decisions. For investors looking to navigate this specialized market, focus should be placed on companies with projects that represent logical acquisition targets for major producers. This includes assets in close proximity to existing infrastructure, with resource size and grade profiles compatible with potential acquirers' operations. Companies pursuing strategic partnerships with majors deserve particular attention, as these arrangements can provide both project validation and access to development funding without excessive shareholder dilution. The uranium market is expected to continue strengthening throughout 2025, though likely in a measured fashion rather than through dramatic price spikes. This environment may favor patient investors with well-researched positions rather than those seeking short-term momentum plays. As the sector evolves, consolidation among junior companies appears increasingly likely, potentially benefiting those with genuinely attractive assets and sustainable business models while eliminating weaker players that lack viable paths to monetization. — Learn more: https://cruxinvestor.com/categories/commodities/uranium Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

    50 min

  6. FEB 19

    Global Uranium Shortage Intensifies as Production Lags Demand

    Recording date: 17th February 2025 Chris Frostad, CEO of Purepoint Uranium, sees the uranium market as midway through a significant upward cycle, with the long-term uranium price around $80/lb signaling growing utility interest in securing future supply. According to Frostad, the market is positioned for further strengthening as utilities haven't yet reached optimal contracting levels. The current market dynamics are shaped by a fundamental supply-demand imbalance. Frostad emphasizes that bringing new uranium production online involves significant lead times, creating a situation where supply can't quickly respond to price signals. This constraint is expected to drive prices higher as demand continues to outpace available supply. For investors looking to participate in the uranium sector, Frostad recommends a diversified approach across different company types. He suggests building a portfolio that includes exploration companies, developers, and producers to balance risk and potential returns. He specifically points to examples like IsoEnergy, which emerged from NexGen Energy, as a successful exploration story, and Denison Mines as a developer that made strategic moves during market downturns. The key to successful uranium investing, Frostad maintains, lies in identifying quality management teams and assets. He advises investors to evaluate companies based on their financing practices, disclosure quality, and strategic approach to project development. For those lacking time or expertise to conduct detailed company analysis, uranium-focused ETFs offer a more passive way to gain sector exposure. Looking ahead, Frostad believes the uranium market has substantial room for growth. Following a period of price volatility in late 2023, current market conditions may present an attractive entry point for investors. He notes that utilities historically didn't begin aggressive contracting until uranium prices reached $80/lb, suggesting the market could be approaching an important inflection point. The investment thesis rests on several key factors: a continuing long-term price uptrend, constrained supply that responds slowly to market signals, and the need for significant new production to meet future demand. Success in this sector requires careful due diligence, a long-term perspective, and the ability to identify quality management teams advancing economically viable projects. While acknowledging the sector's volatility, Frostad suggests that patient investors who do their homework could see significant returns as the nuclear energy sector continues to expand globally. The key is to maintain a disciplined approach focused on company fundamentals rather than reacting to short-term market movements. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com/categories/commodities/uranium

    52 min

  7. FEB 15

    Australia's Energy Plans Crumble Ahead of Critical Election

    Recording date: 13th February 2025 Australia's energy sector faces transformative changes as it approaches a crucial federal election expected between late April and mid-May 2024. Jonathan Fisher, CEO of Cauldron Energy, predicts the incumbent Labor government will lose its majority, potentially leading to a minority government supported by the Greens and independent "teal" candidates. The election comes at a critical time for Australia's energy policy, particularly regarding nuclear power. While currently banned, there's growing momentum to embrace nuclear energy as a clean, baseload power source, despite opposition from Labor and left-leaning groups. Australia's ambitious target of 82% renewable energy by 2030 faces significant challenges. Fisher criticizes the government's energy modeling, which assumes 14 GW of green hydrogen demand will conveniently balance renewable intermittency. This assumption has proven problematic as seven out of eight federally funded green hydrogen projects have failed, including BP's recent withdrawal from the Kwinana project. Trade tensions with the United States, including new aluminum tariffs, are straining bilateral relations. However, opportunities exist to leverage Australia's uranium and critical minerals resources, particularly in light of the AUKUS nuclear submarine agreement. Fisher suggests potential deals with the U.S. could benefit Australia's nuclear sector. Globally, nuclear energy is experiencing a renaissance. Spain's parliament has voted to maintain its nuclear fleet beyond 2027, supported by public demonstrations. Belgium has reversed its phase-out plans, and Germany's upcoming elections could lead to nuclear restarts. Only Taiwan maintains a firm commitment to phasing out nuclear power. The uranium market, while currently facing low prices, shows promising signs of recovery. Fisher notes that "new supply is absolutely elastic to that price," with analysts maintaining bullish long-term forecasts despite near-term market uncertainty. Key challenges for Australia include balancing renewable energy targets with system stability, addressing high energy prices, and managing the environmental impact of fossil fuels. The government's current energy rebate program masks underlying price increases, raising concerns about long-term sustainability. For investors, critical focus areas include the election's impact on energy policy, Australia's renewable energy transition, potential U.S. trade deals involving critical minerals, the struggling green hydrogen sector, and the global uranium market recovery. These factors will shape opportunities in Australia's evolving energy landscape as the country navigates its clean energy transition amid global shifts toward nuclear power. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com/categories/commodities/uranium

    48 min

  8. JAN 28

    Nuclear Growth Driven by Utilities & Affordable Energy Demand Crisis, Not Silicon Valley

    Recording date: 27th January 2025 The uranium sector is experiencing a significant disconnect between market performance and fundamental drivers. Despite uranium equities falling 20-25% in 2023, the underlying supply-demand dynamics continue to strengthen. This creates a compelling opportunity for patient investors who understand the sector's unique characteristics. The market's current weakness stems from several factors. The spot uranium market is incredibly thin, averaging only seven trades per week in 2024, making it susceptible to short-term price movements that don't reflect long-term fundamentals. Additionally, Western utilities have been able to delay major purchasing decisions due to inventory buildups and accelerated Russian imports ahead of sanctions. However, the core investment thesis remains intact and is strengthening: - The supply gap continues to widen, with limited new production coming online- Utility contracting is happening in the background at higher-term prices- Geopolitical restructuring is forcing Western utilities to secure non-Russian supply- Nuclear power adoption is accelerating globally for baseload power needs For investors, the key is understanding this is not a short-term trade but a fundamental supply shortage that must be resolved. The market's current weakness appears to be creating an attractive entry point, with valuations down 20-25% despite strengthening fundamentals. Investment Strategy Considerations: - Focus on companies with strong assets and manageable burn rates- Look for validation from major industry players through JVs and strategic investments- Understand the difference between producers, developers, and explorers- Consider jurisdiction risk in light of East-West market bifurcation What's different now compared to previous cycles is the concrete utility demand and government support driving the sector. Unlike speculative demand from data centers or AI, which may add incremental demand but isn't the core driver, the fundamental need comes from utilities replacing aging reactors and expanding nuclear fleets. Risk factors remain: - Market illiquidity can create price volatility- Project development timelines often extend beyond investor patience- Capital markets may remain challenging for smaller companies- Geopolitical shifts could temporarily impact market dynamics The key takeaway is that while market sentiment has turned negative, the physical uranium market's fundamentals continue to improve. The current disconnect between equity valuations and underlying drivers presents an opportunity for investors who understand the sector's unique characteristics and can maintain a multi-year investment horizon. The market's recent weakness should be viewed in the context of a broader equity market downturn rather than a fundamental shift in the uranium supply-demand dynamics. For those looking to enter the sector, current valuations may offer an attractive entry point, but position sizing and time horizon are crucial considerations. Learn more: https://cruxinvestor.com/categories/commodities/uranium Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

    35 min
See All (78)

    About

    A guide to all things uranium with Brandon Munro and other uranium experts.

    Information

    • Creator
      Crux Investor
    • Years Active
      2024 - 2025
    • Episodes
      78
    • Rating
      Clean
    • Copyright
      © Copyright 2023 All rights reserved.
    • Show Website
      The Energy Show

    You Might Also Like

    Content Restricted

    This episode can’t be played on the web in your country or region.

    To listen to explicit episodes, sign in.

    Stay up to date with this show

    Sign in or sign up to follow shows, save episodes, and get the latest updates.
    Select a country or region

    Africa, Middle East, and India

    Asia Pacific

    Europe

    Latin America and the Caribbean

    The United States and Canada