S2 Underground S2 Actual

//The Wire//1600Z May 9, 2024//
//SPECIAL REPORT//
//BLUF: BIDEN CONFIRMS ILLEGAL USE OF AMERICAN BOMBS IN GAZA. CONGRESS INTRODUCES BILLS TO DEPORT UNIVERSITY PROTEST PARTICIPANTS TO GAZA.//
 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. – For the first time, in an interview with CNN, President Biden has confirmed that American munitions have been illegally used by Israel in Gaza to kill civilians, including children. AC: Of course, taking the direct words of the POTUS is probably not a direct indication of U.S. policy, and should be weighed as such. However, if true, this is also a de facto admission of everything that has been obvious to anyone who is familiar with U.S. kinetic targeting policy (such as described in JP-360).
In Congress, Reps. Andrew Ogles (R-TN), Randy Weber (R-TX), and Jeff Duncan (R-SC) introduced two bills yesterday that are of note for every American. The full text has not been provided for either bill, but the one-sentence summaries have been provided, pending the full text. The titles of the bills are as follows:
H.R.8321 - To require person convicted of unlawful activity on the campus of an institution of higher education beginning on and after October 7, 2023, to provide community service in Gaza.
 H.R.8322 - To revoke visas of certain aliens for rioting or unlawful protests, and for other purposes.
AC: This is the entirety of the information present on the Congressional website tracking these bills. All further details surrounding the contents of these bills has originated from direct statements made by the bill’s sponsors themselves.
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Analyst Comments: From time to time, events transpire in the world that are so outside social norms that it is challenging to choose language with which to describe these events that is not considered to be fallible in some way. So be advised that the mere ideas of these bills (8321 in particular) is not something that can be discussed in a rational or neutral manner due to the implications contained within.
Though the full text of H.R. 8321 is not yet available, statements by Reps. Ogles, Duncan, and Weber strongly indicate the intent of the bill. These primary-source statements strongly indicate that if there ever was a bill that goes beyond the pale of social norms and current laws in the United States, it's this one.
As extreme as this language appears, the language and ideas allegedly contained within these bills are even more extreme. One would be hard pressed to find a bill more dystopian, outright illegal, and the antithesis of everything the United States stands for, the mere introduction of which should (per the U.S. Constitution) be considered to be an act of treason.
One of the bill’s sponsors Rep. Randy Weber (R-TX), has openly admitted this bill is intended to result in the harm and/or death of American citizens by placing them in a warzone where war crimes are being committed, stating: "I am going to bet that these pro-Hamas supporters wouldn’t last a day, but let’s give them the opportunity". Considering the context of Biden himself verbally stating in a CNN interview on the same exact day that American bombs are being used to target civilians in Gaza in violation of U.S. and international law, this is a very serious implication that could not be a more direct message to the American people.
Even though the text of this bill hasn’t been published, the intent and statements about it indicate this bill is already illegal in at least a dozen different ways. But, as that fact has never stopped any bill from eventually becoming law, even ridiculous proposals such as this one must be taken seriously.
As a reminder, Hamas was designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in 1997, and there are already entire sections of US code dedicated to banning American citizens from providing support to such groups. Likewise, “unlaw

//The Wire//2100Z May 8, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ASTRAZENECA PULLS COVID VACCINE FROM MARKET.//
 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: The AstraZeneca COVID vaccine Covishield has been withdrawn from worldwide production. AstraZeneca claims that this drug was pulled from the market due to declining demand and a wide surplus of similar products from other brands.
-HomeFront-
USA: Pro-Palestine demonstrations continue at a variety of universities around the United States. Over the weekend, graduation ceremonies were disrupted at many universities as demonstrators begin to solidify what has so far been a less-than-coherent collection of positions/causes related to the pro-Palestine movement. AC: Lately, demonstrations in some cities have shifted to demanding universities divest from financial investment in (or any cooperation with) Israel as a condition for ceasing demonstrations. These efforts are unlikely to achieve the desired result, as 38 states have enacted anti-BDS laws specifically outlawing divestment from the state of Israel only. Consequently demonstrations, disruptions, and general unrest are likely to continue as the various controlling interests (from all participating factions) continue to entrench in varying ideological positions, and dig in for the long-haul this protest season.
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Analyst Comments: AstraZeneca claims there is no link whatsoever to their drug being pulled from the market a few days after multiple international health groups (and AstraZeneca themselves) have admitted that a major side-effect of this vaccine is Thrombosis with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome (TTS), which results in “severe blood clotting events”. Before being pulled from the market, this vaccine was administered in over 150 nations.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1400Z May 7, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ISRAEL BEGINS INVASION OF RAFAH, SEIZES BORDER CROSSING WITH EGYPT.//
 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: France states that claims of Foreign Legion soldiers deploying to Ukraine are false. However, the track record of French statements vs. actions is often very contradictory. For instance, Macron himself stated a few weeks ago that French soldiers may be required to deploy to Ukraine, before immediately recanting the statements and stating the opposite. AC: The initial claims of FFL soldiers being deployed to Ukraine are probably half-truths. Right now, France’s official stance is that no FFL soldiers are, or are planned to be, deployed in Ukraine. France also claims that these statements are “Russian disinformation”. This is likely half-true. Right now, almost every single NATO member has troops on the ground in Ukraine, under the excuse of being “advisors” or “observers”. Russian sources probably heard about a couple of battalions of French mercenaries being trained for service in Ukraine, but rather than waiting to embarrass France more directly, the initial sources lost credibility by fabricating details of the alleged deployment, citing details of specific units that are obviously false. France deploying a few hundred FFL soldiers to Ukraine is within reason, highly likely in any case, and has probably already happened. However, by failing to obtain hard evidence, reports of FFL soldiers in Ukraine remain unconfirmable, and easily walked-back by France in the event that these claims were indeed true in the first place. Now, only time will tell how true these claims were, or will be. In short, this story may have been “Russian disinformation” as France claims…but that doesn’t mean that elements of the story aren’t true.
Middle East: The Israeli invasion of Rafah has begun amid very high diplomatic tensions surrounding the proposed ceasefire agreement. Hamas rocket and IED attacks in the north have allegedly intensified following IDF combat actions in the south. IDF forces have conducted a pincer movement along the Philadelphi Corridor, seizing the Rafah Border Crossing and assaulting north into the suburbs of Rafah.
-HomeFront-
USA: Various protests and counter protests continue at various universities throughout the nation. Many of the more high-profile demonstrations and encampments have been cleared out, while others continue on a plethora of issues. The number of universities switching to online classes for the rest of the quarter/semester continues to grow, as do the list of universities that have canceled graduation ceremonies altogether.
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Analyst Comments: Though details are impossible to verify, a complex situation appears to have developed surrounding the recent peace talks in Israel. Hamas has claimed that they actually agreed to Israel’s terms (for the most part, including the return of 33 Israeli hostages, the exact number sought by Israel). However, even as the deal was being considered, Israeli troops were in the process of invading Rafah. At the moment, even some Israeli media sources are claiming that Netanyahu never planned for the ceasefire to go through, and made outlandish demands in Israel’s peace proposal with the intent of Hamas denying the deal. Hamas called Israel’s bluff, and actually did agree to almost all of Israel’s demands. As such, many media groups are claiming that Netanyahu is continuing the war solely to save his own government, and that Hamas has been willing to enact a truce for some time. Whether or not these claims are true remains to be seen,

//The Wire//1800Z May 06, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ISRAEL/GAZA PEACE TALKS FAIL. FRANCE DEPLOYS FOREIGN LEGION TO UKRAINE. PROTESTS ESCALATE IN IRELAND.//
 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: France begins deploying French Foreign Legion soldiers to frontline combat service in Ukraine. Approximately 1,500 troops will be sent to Ukraine at first, beginning with a few hundred artillery spotters and intelligence personnel.
Middle East: Following the collapse of the latest peace talks in Cairo, Israeli forces have reportedly begun the final phases of the operation to invade Rafah. Locals report mass evacuations have begun as IDF troops stage to take the city. AC: Israel has been planning this operation for weeks, and likely did not fully commit to peace talks as a method of providing a solution to this conflict.
Ireland: Counter-immigration protests continue to grow in size and number following months of building tensions resulting from governmental policies. Thousands of demonstrators gathered in Dublin this morning to protest against immigration, as well as a variety of other issues. Protesters demonstrating against the escalation of the Ukrainian War (and against providing support for Ukraine) were also observed taking part in the overall demonstrations. AC: So far, these are some of the largest demonstrations seen in Ireland in many years. Consequently, various counter-protests (and counter-counter-protests) have begun as well, encompassing a wide variety of unrelated issues.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. – Saturday night a man rammed his vehicle into a security barricade at the White House. The man, who has not yet been identified, was discovered to be deceased inside the vehicle. AC: At this time, it is not clear as to if the man was killed in the crash, or if he died prior to the crash. It is also not clear as to if this was a deliberate attack, or an accident.
Pennsylvania: A gunman attempted to murder a local pastor at the Jesus' Dwelling Place Church in North Braddock during a livestream of services on Sunday. The assailant’s firearm suffered a malfunction during the attack, resulting in it failing to fire. After the weapon failed, the assailant was apprehended by churchgoers. The assailant has been identified as Bernard Junior Polite. AC: This attack appears to possibly be the result of a mental health incident, however the assailant did admit that the church was selected as a target of opportunity. As such, constant and overwhelming vigilance and situational awareness continues to be strongly recommended, particularly at religious institutions.
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Analyst Comments: The deployment of the French Foreign Legion, while a serious escalation of the war, is also one which is politically safe for Macron. As Foreign Legion soldiers are not French citizens, there will likely be little backlash against this escalation in France (whereas deploying actual French Army soldiers would cause outrage). Russia’s response to this announcement is not clear, but operationally Russia will almost certainly seek to target the Legion deliberately, simply to make a point.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1400Z May 03, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UCLA ENCAMPMENT DISPERSED. RUSSIAN TROOPS ENTER AMERICAN BASE IN NIGER. TAIWAN DETECTS PLAN EXERCISES IN STRAIT.//
 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Far East: Taiwanese forces noted an increase in Chinese activity in the Taiwan Strait overnight. 26x aircraft of varying types (including medium-bombers and UAVs) were noted conducting exercises in coordination with 5x PLAN surface vessels. AC: This increase in activity above baseline is likely in accordance with China’s observance of traditional Communist holidays, which usually serve as a vector for military drills or exercises. China also launched their latest carrier (the Fujian, CV-18) on the May Day holiday, where she has been conducting sea trials over the past 24 hours.
Niger: The situation regarding American presence in the country continues to deteriorate. Overnight, the Pentagon confirmed that Russian troops (likely PMCs) have entered Base 201 at Agadez. Pentagon officials claim the Russians have occupied a compound within the base separate from American forces that remain on site.
-HomeFront-
California: The main encampment at UCLA has been completely dispersed by police. AC: So far, most of the demonstrators have either been arrested and immediately released, and/or (likely) have dispersed to other occupied zones around the United States. This may be worthy of note considering the recent mice incident. Regardless of the potential nefariousness of recent events, malign actors now know with high confidence that someone can approach a large crowd of people, disperse an unidentified object without any investigation or media coverage, and the crowd will disperse a few days later to locations all around the United States. This incident, if it was indeed a simple prank, at minimum provides valuable operational data for malign actors seeking to cause major incidents around the United States. 
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Analyst Comments: Though the situation in Niger results in very little media coverage, this situation has the potential for extremely serious consequences to develop. So far, diplomats are attempting to mitigate the situation, while defense officials do what they can to ease this transition. Though the strategic value of the Agadez base is quite significant to American military operations throughout the Sahel, from the information that has become public surrounding this scandal, the DoD prerogative of waiting out the storm and somehow cutting a deal with Niger seems to be faltering with each passing day. The arrival of Russia on the stage seals the deal for any American hopes to remain strategically emplaced within Niger. Unfortunately, this creates an exceptionally dangerous situation for the troops on the ground due to the logistics of a departure; everyone knows the U.S. contingent in Niger can’t remain…the question is no longer “if” the U.S. will leave, but “when”. This is especially challenging for both the troops in Agadez, as well as the contingent at the Embassy compound in Niamey. The logistical challenges alone greatly complicate the security situation on the ground, and highlight many of the same military concerns that the United States has faced throughout Africa over the past few decades.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

Hey everyone, back again with an ambitious (but helpful) reading this month. Though there are probably a lot of nitpicking issues that kind of make it hard to fully endorse the ideas in this book, I think overall it was a pretty good discussion-instigator. I did want to keep this one under 4 hours long, so I kept it as short as humanly possible lol.
How to have the poll out for May by tomorrow; I'm still working on selections and will be out of the office most of today.
Youtube link: https://youtu.be/goqfpWlYnlM
00:00 - Introduction and Overview 
04:00 - Main Thesis 
05:25 - The Turnings 
09:30 - Predictions for 2005 
16:15 - Preparing for the Fourth Turning 
27:46 - Issues 
42:20 - Closing Thoughts