We talk economics and markets with leading policymakers and investors.
Dave Newman on Hedge Fund Success, Investment Banking Lessons and Writing Daily
Dave is President and CIO of KC3 Capital Management. Before that, he was Head of Macro Trading NY at Moore Capital and Managing Director in FX and Macro Trading at SAC Capital. Prior to his buy-side roles, Dave had various senior head of sales roles at Credit Suisse and JP Morgan. In this podcast we discuss:
1) Living through an investment bank merger. 2) The challenges of retaining talent at banks. 3) Moving from the sell-side to the buy-side (hedge funds). 4) What makes Louis Bacon and Moore Capital so successful. 5) The alpha of discretionary trading over quants. 6) The discipline of writing every day when trading markets. 7) How to manage your personal portfolio. 8) The value of allocating to external managers rather than just trading yourself. 8) Favourite sectors. 9) Private equity vs venture capital. 10) How to manage drawdowns. 11) Books mentioned: The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest (Chancellor), 21st Century Monetary Policy (Bernanke), The Panic of 1907 (Bruner), We Were Soldiers Once...And Young (Galloway), The Man Who Solved the Market (Zuckerman), Efficiently Inefficient (Pedersen), The Lords of Easy Money (Leonard).
Randy Schwimmer on Private Credit, Fed Shocks and Recession Risks
Randy is co-head of senior lending and oversees senior lending origination and capital markets for Churchill Asset Management, which has $40bn of committed capital. Randy is widely credited with developing loan syndications for middle market companies. Prior to joining the firm, Randy served as a senior managing director and head of capital markets and indirect origination at Churchill Financial. Before that, he worked as managing director and head of leveraged finance syndication for BNP Paribas. He spent 15 years at JP Morgan Chase in corporate banking and loan syndications, where he originated, structured and syndicated leveraged loans. In this podcast we discuss:
1) Evolution of private credit markets. 2) Comparison to high-yield bonds and syndicated loans. 3) Why banks want to off-load loans. 4) Types of loans that make up private credit. 5) How buyers of private credit monitor loans. 6) Typical size of loans. 7) How to protect against recession risks. 8) How Fed hikes have affected private credit. 9) Role of private equity. 10) Are private markets a bubble? 11)Books that Randy mentioned: The Waste Land (TS Eliot), Eliot After The Waste Land (Crawford) , O Jerusalem! (Collins).
Howard Davies on How UK Chancellors Steer the UK In Crisis
Howard Davies is the Chairman of the Board of Directors of Natwest Group. Previously, he was the Director of the London School of Economics (LSE) from 2003 until 2011. Prior to this appointment he was chairman of the UK Financial Services Authority from 1997 to 2003. From 1995 to 1997 he was Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, after three years as the Director General of the Confederation of British Industry. Earlier in his career he worked in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, the Treasury, McKinsey and Co, and as Controller of the Audit Commission. In this podcast we discuss:
1) Whether the UK should separate finance and economy minister roles. 2) The competition between the Chancellor and Prime Minister. 3) Why UK productivity has been low. 4) The impact of Bank of England independence for role of Chancellor. 5) How Gordon Brown reduced poverty. 6) Why taxes are so hard to change in the UK. 7) Why Alistair Darling was under-rated as Chancellor. 8) The problem with George Osbourne’s austerity drive. 9) The role of Chancellor in Scottish and EU referendums. 10) The challenge for the current Chancellor in targeting growth. 11) Whether the UK Treasury attracts the right talent.
Dr Sam Ramani on the Russia-Ukraine War, Recent Ukraine Wins and Putin’s Endgame
Sam is a tutor of politics and international relations at the University of Oxford, and an Associate Fellow at the British defence think tank, the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). He contributes regularly to media outlets, such as Foreign Policy, the Washington Post, Newsweek, and Al-Monitor, and think tanks, such as the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Middle East Institute. In this podcast we discuss:
1) What was behind Ukraine’s recent counter-offensive win. 2) Why the Russian army is weaker than expected. 3) Why the counter-offensive started in September. 4) How the West is supporting Ukraine. 5) How internal dissent within the West could reduce support. 6) Whether Russia has any gas leverage left with Europe. 7) Status of the new war front between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 8) Whether Putin’s popularity suffered. 9) How the main players around Putin are faring. 10) Whether Ukraine aims to recapture the Donbas and Crimea. 11) Whether there are peace talks. 12) Points of escalation from Russia. 12) Lessons from Russia-Chechnya wars.
Artem Milinchuk on Alternative Assets, Farmland and Inflation Hedges
Artem has over 10 years of finance experience in food, agriculture, and farmland. He holds an MBA from The Wharton School, and a BA and MA in Economics from the Higher School of Economics. Prior to founding FarmTogether, Artem was employee #1 and CFO/VP of Operations at Full Harvest Technologies, a now post-Series A B2B platform for buying and selling produce. He previously worked at Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, Sprott Resource Holdings, E&Y and PwC. In this podcast we discuss types of investable farmland, whether farmland provides an inflation hedge, leverage levels in farmland, and much more.
Karl Massey on the End of Investing as We Know It
Karl is Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts, and Mentor at Creative Destruction Labs (Said Business School, University of Oxford). He began his career at JPMorgan trading fixed income. In 1996, Karl oversaw Banco Santander's Global Asset-Liability activities in Madrid. In 2001, he returned to London as Global Head of FX for HSBC Asset Management. From 2003, he held Senior Portfolio Manager roles at Brevan Howard, UBS O'Connor, Deutsche Bank's Cross Asset Trading group. In 2012 he joined Barclays Bank Treasury in London as Head of Euro Liquidity Management. In 2017 he joined LPP, Local Pensions Partnership, where he managed the Fixed Income portfolio. In 2018, he was a Participant at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Karl holds two degrees; Physics from Imperial College, London and Molecular Biophysics from University College, University of Oxford. In this podcast we discuss:
1) Capital-ism vs income-ism. 2) The demographic problem. 3) Importance of the scientific method. 4) The end of mean reversion. 5) Investment uncertainty vs risk. 6) The risk of correlation changes. 7) How today’s crises are different to GFC. 8) A coming asset crisis. 9) Phase transitions. 10) Central bank, real economy and political regime changes. 11) What the performance of the 60:40 portfolio tells us. 12) Solving for lower future market returns. 13) Demographic – climate change – machine learning shocks. 14) The failure of factor investing. 15) Have a plan A, B and C. 16) Career risk. 17) Books mentioned: The (Mis)Behaviour of Markets (Mandelbrot), The Upside of Down (Homer-Dixon), The Man Who Mistook His Wife for a Hat (Sacks)
I love to get deep insight with quite different perspectives for non sophisticated investors
Great podcast, different perspectives
Smart macro / great guests
Really enjoyed Bilal’s discussion with Jay Pelosky. I’m a huge fan of this podcast. Really smart discussions and great guests!