Market Trends with Tracy Saval Foodservice

In the past two weeks, the Avian Flu removed close to 5 million birds from the food supply. Cases have been confirmed in 26 states so far. We're keeping an eye on the situation. Chicken production and pricing remain similar to past weeks. Middle meats are creeping higher in beef, and rounds, chucks, and grounds are coming down. Briskets have shot up as well. If you need beef, buy now. Pork bellies continue in bargain mode. Corn harvest is done with a record crop and pricing moving lower. Soy is holding steady and wheat has moved a little lower. 
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Beef production is down again from last week and last year. Middle meats are moving up a bit, while the others are due for some lower pricing. Bellies closed at $98 and will most likely stay in this area. Avian Flu has new numbers this week, and they aren't good. Not a trend we want to see. Pricing on chicken is mostly holding steady. Grain harvest is still looking good with exports picking up in corn. Dairy is once again flipping on us. Product is available, but pricing should reduce to spur export demand. Have a great Thanksgiving holiday!
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The beef holiday items are all moving higher for next week. We’ve been saying it for months but the lower beef production will continue into next year.  If you are in the market for beef, buy now, next week will cost you more money.  Pork production continues strong and pricing is attractive. Chicken production is down again this week, but pricing continues to move lower. Corn and soy received huge reports from the USDA this week which could continue to drive prices down. Good news on the grain front. Dairy markets are all moving lower with more downside to come, hopefully. 
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Beef holiday pricing is in full swing and that's not changing any time soon. This will move up again next week. Buy now, waiting will cost you. There is plenty of pork product available with pricing moving lower on most cuts. Chicken production is down again this week, but pricing on party wings, breasts, and tenders is also moving down. The surge in Avian Flu continues with new cases reported from Alaska to Alabama. Corn is down this week, soy is moving higher, and wheat is slightly lower. Cream availability is improving and the CME is responding with lower prices.
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Corn closed at $4.81 a second week below $5, Harvest is 59% complete.  Export demand is less than robust, I think we may have finally gotten away from $6 corn, at least for the foreseeable future.  This is excellent news for the whole protein industry built around cheap corn.  Soy harvest is 76% done and though there is some uncertainty on international demand, pricing is pretty steady at least right now.  Wheat is surprisingly moving a bit lower, nothing too extreme but with holiday baking season at hand, I’m a bit surprised.
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Let’s get to the bad news first.  Avian Flu is back.  Since last week, 10 new cases were reported, totally 189K birds affected. That’s over half a million birds the last two weeks lost from the food supply, most of which were Turkeys. 
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