Money Life with Chuck Jaffe Chuck Jaffe

Zach Jonson, chief investment officer at Stack Financial Management, says that while the stock market has been moving to record highs, "it wasn't healthy." He says that market valuations are overblown, with concentration in the index being more of a concern than at any time in history, which means that current conditions are lining up with some rare time periods, most notably the tech bubble days of the late 1990s, which ended turning ugly when the bubble burst. That's in contrast with the view from Eric Wallerstein, chief markets strategist at Yardeni Research, who says the Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 60,000 and the Standard & Poor's 500 will hit 8,000 before the end of the current decade, and while that run could end up ugly at that point, any downturns in the interim are buying opportunities. Plus, John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors — chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — provides an update on what's happened with closed-end funds through the first half of 2024, and Jaime Dunaway-Seale discusses Clever Real Estate's Gen Z Home Buyer Report, which showed that 60 percent of the generation just entering the workforces thinks they will never own a home.

Eric Crittenden, chief investment officer at Standpoint Asset Management, says the market has weakened to where there are no "great, super-strong trends out there," but he thinks the market is entering a transition period where new trends will start and emerge. That transition may not include a recession, Crittenden says, because "the algebra says to me that it's going to be hard to have a recession," due to the government actions that have staved it off and made it hard to forecast what's next. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, goes with something new as his ETF of the Week focuses on one of the nine new Ethereum funds that debuted earlier this week. Chip Lupo discusses the 2024 Money and Relationships Survey from WalletHub, which showed that nearly 40 percent of Americans have a financial account that their partner doesn’t know about. In the Market Call, Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, discusses "beat and replace" investing.

Jeffrey Hirsch, chief executive at Hirsch Holdings and editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac — which tracks stock market performance relative to presidential terms and election cycles — says that while the upcoming election is no longer a battle between two second-term presidents, the potential election of a first-term president in Kamala Harris would not result in much change for the market. While first-term presidents historically hit the ground running and make some of their most drastic moves early, Hirsch says Wall Street is prepared to adjust, which leaves him more concerned with how the market will perform late in the term — in 2026 — than he is concerned with what happens close to the election. Adam Rozencwajg, managing partner at Goehring and Rozencwajg — which specializes in investing in natural resources commodities — discusses the recent rally in natural gas and makes the unusual case for it as a play that's adjacent to the artificial intelligence boom. And speaking of "AI-adjacent" investment potential, that's exactly one of the things currently appealing to Brian Mulberry, portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management, who talks about it among his stock ideas in the Money Life Market Call.

Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy and asset allocation for SLC Investments, says investors are "pretty risk-on," meaning they expect the economy is headed to an environment where rates will settle down at reasonable levels and consumers will keep spending, creating a sound environment for investors. That extends to Europe and some international markets, which will help balance a portfolio that may be impacted by a downturn late in the year, but Mullarkey says any downturn is likely to be a buying opportunity because current conditions can't keep the market down for long. That general market optimism through volatility and a correction is shared by Michele Schneider, director of trading education at MarketGauge.com, who expects heightened volatility but who sees the market likely being higher at the end of the year, with 6,000 — up about 8 percent from current levels on the Standard & Poor's 500 — being a level the market will challenge. Plus, Jonathan Smucker, portfolio manager at Marietta Investment Partners talks stocks in the Money Life Market Call.

Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, says that stock market valuations are extended to the point where "things need to be nearly perfect to justify those valuation levels." He is finding much better valuations internationally, noting that "Non-U.S. equity markets are cheap relative to the U.S. by an amount we have never seen before," which is why he is suggesting investors start nibbling and dollar-cost averaging into foreign markets now. Doll also reviews his annual list of 10 forecasts for the calendar year and sizes up where his forecasts stand after the mid-year point of the 2024. Doll says the economy is slowing and he expects that to show up in a market downturn before year's end. Michael Urich, chief economist at Seventh Point Analytic Consulting, discusses the latest Business Conditions Survey from the National Association for Business Economics -- released today -- which shows that a record number of respondents reported that their firms had raised prices in the last three months, but fewer respondents reported higher sales and profits, a dichotomy that suggests there might be some economic trouble ahead. Plus, Kyle Guske, analyst at New Constructs, puts a mutual fund in the Danger Zone.

Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, says that the economy is showing signs of slowing in some ways, while still having some measures being strong, and a lot of it is determined by consumers where the division between the haves and have-nots are growing, and where current conditions hurt people with less money dramatically more than the wealthy. Green says people are confusing the stock market's run to record highs as strength for the economy, which he says is misplaced, but which he says has handcuffed the Federal Reserve on rate cuts because it's hard to say that moves are needed when markets are peaking. In the Talking Technicals segment, Tom Samuelson, chief investment officer at Vineyard Global Advisors, says he'll stay bullish despite expecting a 3 to 5 percent correction now and a 5 to 10 percent dip closer to the election; he's optimistic because "strength begets strength," and a strong first half of the year bodes well for gains in the second half, as does increasing breadth supporting an uptrend. Plus, Jason Akus, head of healthcare investing at abrdn — manager of the firm's four closed-end funds covering healthcare — gives his current take on the healthcare and biotech space, noting that the sectors last rallied around the vaccine makers during the pandemic but they are now showing signs of the next big rally, and Rachel Perez discusses research from Preply showing which side gigs provide the best wages and most job stability.