Option Selling ETFs Boom | Probability of Future Fed Moves | Bad News is Good News on Employment

Derek Moore and ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli ponder whether the Fed is truly done and if the street is too optimistic on rate cuts in 2024. Plus, they discuss new data showing option selling ETFs are having record assets between inflows and new entrants. Bad news is good news still as employment ticks up. They delve deeper into the numbers including labor participation rate, size of workforce, and more in the household survey data. Finally, they talk about options volatility and how it got sucked out of the market this week.

Option selling ETFs set new record high for assets

Is the Fed really done raising rates?

Is the street too optimistic about Fed rate cutting in 2024?

Sahm Recession Rule indicator says recent employment data hints at recession

3-Month moving average of the unemployment rate in the Sahm recession rule indicator

VIX hits lowest level in a while

Earnings and Nvidia options

Bad news is good news regime is still alive and well in markets

US unemployment rate ticks up to 3.9%

Understanding the household survey numbers

What is the labor force participation rate?

Size of the US workforce

Mentioned in this Episode:

BLS US Unemployment Rate report https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Correction Territory | No Fear Yet in Markets? | When Does Capitulation Happen in Markets?

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/correction-territory-no-fear-yet-in-markets-when-does/id1432836154?i=1000632979045

Fed Rate probability tracker https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

0DTE Options Analysis| Inflation Coming Back? | Strong US Dollar Impact https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/0dte-options-analysis-inflation-coming-back-strong/id1432836154?i=1000628157831

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr

Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com

www.zegafinancial.com