Orion's The Weighing Machine Orion Portfolio Solutions

Inflation has been rising steadily since the beginning of the year and is now at a level considered concerning by many economists. And while the Fed has been raising interest rates to keep inflation in check, it is becoming increasingly difficult. With inflation remaining stubbornly high, many believe a recession is becoming increasingly likely. What does this mean for the fixed-income market and the bond market?
In this episode, Rusty and Robyn talk with Colleen Ambrose, Director of Fixed Income Markets at Capital Group. Colleen has 35 years of industry experience and has been with Capital Group for two years. Before joining Capital Group, Colleen was a portfolio manager at Bank of America. Before that, she was a fixed-income client portfolio manager at American Century Investments. Colleen holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation and is a member of the CFA Institute, the CFA Society of Chicago, and Women Investment Professionals. 
Colleen talks with Rusty and Robyn about her outlook for fixed income, the bond market, and the headwinds in the economy, including inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and a potential recession.

Key Takeaways

[02:34] - Colleen's professional background and what she does at Capital Group.

[04:29] - What Women Investment Professionals is all about.

[05:27] - Colleen's advice to investors in light of global financial market events.

[07:54] - Capital Group's outlook on inflation.

[09:32] - Colleen's thoughts on the Federal Reserve's inflation policy.

[10:24] - What Capital Group has to say about recession risk.

[11:46] - The impact of geopolitical risks on the fixed-income market.

[13:17] - How the fixed income bear market will end.

[14:59] - Colleen's view on long-term interest rates.

[15:46] - What Capital Group thinks about investment grade bonds, high yield bonds, emerging markets, and debt.

 [17:21] - Why investors should consider fixed-income assets during market volatility.

[19:30] - Colleen's personal investment strategy.

[20:28] - How Colleen maintains her physical and mental health to perform at her best.

[21:29] - The lessons Colleen learned from her mentors.

[22:35] - Colleen's recommendation for content.


Quotes
[04:05] - "I love being that point person between our investment team and the end user clients to help them optimize what they're doing with their fixed income. Fixed income can be archaic and complex to understand. I like putting it in user-friendly terms to help people understand the messaging and move forward the right way." ~ Colleen Ambrose
[10:39] - "We're not there yet. But 2023 is likely to see a recession, potentially a global recession. The U.S. will be slowing from the impact of Federal Reserve hikes and higher inflation. In terms of the employment landscape, we start to see layoffs in the economy that could impact things." ~ Colleen Ambrose
[22:01] - "In the real world, you learn so much by doing. I equate learning about the bond market or financial markets to being plopped down in the middle of a foreign country, not knowing the language. And every day, you have to get up and learn the language." ~ Colleen Ambrose

Links 

Colleen Ambrose 

Capital Group

Walking On Sunshine

Women Investment Professionals

Bloomberg

The Wall Street Journal

The Economist


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Rusty Vanneman

Robyn Murray


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2145-OPS-11/8/2022

In this episode, Rusty and Robyn talk with Kenneth Sleeper, Ocean Park Asset Management's Co-Founder, Co-Managing Director, and Portfolio Manager. Also joining them is James St. Aubin, Chief Investment Officer for Sierra Mutual Funds and Ocean Park Asset Management.
Kenneth oversees all aspects of the organization's activities, including asset management, research, and client relationships. Before co-founding Sierra Investment Management, the parent company of the Sierra Mutual Funds and Ocean Park Asset Management, Kenneth applied his extensive background in statistical and computer applications to develop and refine computerized techniques for reducing downside risk. James, on the other hand, is an accomplished investment management executive. His experience in over 20 years in the industry includes asset allocation, manager research, and portfolio construction leadership roles.
Kenneth and James talk with Rusty and Robyn about how they manage portfolios in today's market environment, what strategies they're implementing in their investments, and how they help investors stay calm, carry on, and stay on course during market downturns.

Key Takeaways

[03:41] - Why Ocean Park Asset Management was founded.

[06:51] - An overview of James St. Aubin's career in wealth management.

[08:30] - The factors influencing the market's movement.

[12:32] - How Ocean Park Asset Management manages portfolios in the current market environment.

[14:09] - How Ocean Park Asset Management helps investors stay calm and carry on in the face of market negativity.

[17:18] - How James and Ken manage client expectations.

[21:19] - What James and Ken say about geopolitical turbulence.

[23:39] - How Ocean Park Asset Management uses tactical analysis in its investment process.

[26:05] - How James keeps his mental and physical health to perform at his best.

[29:05] - The people Ken and James are grateful for professionally.

[32:13] - James and Ken's recommendations for content.


Quotes
[10:02] - "2022 has been about dealing with the consequences of the policy mistake, a double whammy of rate hikes and QT (Quantitative Tightening) at a pace and up to a level not easily digested by financial markets. Think about it as a shock and awe in the opposite direction, but this time it's intended to beat inflation." ~ James St. Aubin
[13:41] - "We can't predict what the future holds, but we have a lot of history showing that this will eventually work itself out. It's just patience that's required right now. And that goes to the heart of investor education for all professionals that manage money." ~ Kenneth Sleeper
[20:05] - "The number one value add for advisors is keeping them from capitulation in times of stress. This, too, shall pass is a perfect phrase for both up and down markets, honestly not to get people too greedy or fearful that we have to stay the course. The key ingredient to success is ensuring that this environment does not knock them off their path." ~ James St. Aubin
 
Links 

Kenneth Sleeper

James St. Aubin

Ocean Park Asset Management

I Won't Back Down by Tom Petty

Stranglehold by Ted Nugent

Skip Schweiss

Ryan Harder

Investment Advisory | HighMark Capital Management

Why We Sleep: Unlocking the Power of Sleep and Dreams by Matthew Walker

Victor Zhang

Wilshire

American Century Investments


Michael Covel's Trend Following


Jim Bianco

Barron's

The Wall Street Journal


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Rusty Vanneman

Robyn Murray


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2142-OPS-11/8/2022

Throughout history, there have been different schools of thought regarding investing. Some investors believe in taking on more risk to achieve higher returns, while others prefer preserving capital and generating stability. In this current economic climate, however, many investors are worried about the stock and bond markets and how they will affect their investments. 
In this episode, Rusty and Robyn talk with Samuel Lau. Samuel is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine's strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies, including DoubleLine's Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, Shiller Enhanced International CAPE®, Real Estate and Income, and Multi-Asset Trend strategies. He also co-hosts the Sherman Show and the Monday Morning Minutes podcasts.
A fixed-income asset allocation strategist, Samuel talks with Rusty and Robyn about the fixed-income market, the headwinds facing the bond market, and the inflation and Federal Reserve policy.

Key Takeaways

[03:43] - Among the many roles Samuel plays at DoubleLine.

[07:48] - What Samuel has learned from podcasting.

[09:03] - One of Samuel's favorite episodes.

[11:00] - What Samuel thinks about the stock market and bonds.

[12:59] - DoubleLine's view on inflation.

[16:21] - What DoubleLine thinks about the Federal Reserve policy.

[19:28] - A possibility of an economic recession.

[23:55] - How Samuel considers geopolitical risk when building portfolios.

[27:29] - Samuel's outlook for interest rates.

[31:05] - An overview of investment-grade corporate bonds.

[35:56] - Samuel's perspective on emerging market debt.

[37:12] - Diversifying portfolios with real assets and low volatility assets.

[40:23] - Samuel's forecast for the stock market.

[42:47] - Why investors should consider fixed-income investments.

[44:47] - Samuel's personal investment strategy.

[45:48] - How Samuel maintains his mental and physical health to perform at his peak.

[48:02] - The people Samuel is grateful for on a professional level.

[49:48] - Samuel's recommendations for content.


Quotes
[12:06] - "On the bond side of things, it's very painful. It's the worst year-to-day performance in the U.S. bond market on record going back to the index's inception. But investors have their heads wrapped around the rationale behind it." ~ Samuel Lau
[17:48] - "We all fear the risk of the Fed and the FOMC over-tightening through their rate hikes and sending the economy into a hard landing, which people would refer to as a policy mistake." ~ Samuel Lau
[38:32] - "When you look at the positive performers, commodities are one of the two asset classes that have that plus sign in front of it on a year-to-date basis. The other asset class is the U.S. dollar." ~ Samuel Lau
 
Links 

DoubleLine

Rock and Roll by Led Zeppelin

Jeffrey Gundlach

The Sherman Show

Jeffrey Sherman

Monday Morning Minutes

Robert Shiller

Mary Daly

Federal Reserve of San Francisco

Nick Timaraos

The Wall Street Journal

National Bureau of Economic Research

Grant's Interest Rate Observer

DoubleLine Capital on YouTube

Channel 11

PS Perspective


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Rusty Vanneman

Robyn Murray


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2077-OPS-11/1/2022

The last few years have been a rollercoaster for investors. The market has been volatile, asset values have declined, and there is general uncertainty about the future. In times like these, it's important to have a diversified portfolio that can weather the storm. Hedge funds offer a unique opportunity for investors to hedge against risk and protect their portfolios.
In this episode, Rusty and Robyn talk with Andrew Beer, Managing Member at Dynamic Beta investments. Andrew started in the hedge fund industry in 1994 when he joined the Baupost Group as one of six generalist portfolio managers. Over the past decade, Andrew's singular focus has been to identify strategies to match or outperform portfolios of leading hedge funds with low fees, daily liquidity, and less downside risk.
A pioneer in hedge fund replication, Andrew talks with Rusty and Robyn about hedge funds, hedge fund strategies that investors find helpful, and how hedge funds are becoming a new fixed-income substitute.

Key Takeaways

[03:06] - What motivated Andrew to specialize in hedge funds.

[07:24] - The role of Dynamic Beta investments in the hedge fund industry.

[08:53] - Andrew's thoughts on what's currently driving the markets.

[10:44] - The outlook for traditional stock and bond markets. 

[11:58] - How investors can improve the risk-adjusted return potential of a traditional balanced portfolio.

[14:12] - An in-depth look at hedge funds.

[15:36] - What replication means at Dynamic Beta investments.

[17:29] - Hedge fund strategies that investors find helpful.

[20:01] - What investors should look for when investing in managed futures.

[22:11] - How hedge funds are becoming a new fixed-income substitute.

[25:09] - Typical allocations to hedge fund strategies and managed futures.

[29:43] - How Andrew invests personally.

[31:34] - How Andrew keeps his physical and mental well-being to perform at his best.

[32:49] - People Andrew is thankful for on a professional level.

[35:41] - Andrew's recommendations for content.


Quotes
[12:19] - "What's the best diversifier on planet earth, where we want to put our money if we can? The answer for us is managed futures." ~ Andrew Beer
[13:20] - "Stocks and bonds are incredible investments over time. But stocks, bonds, and managed futures are the right diversified portfolio." ~ Andrew Beer
[27:43] - "The vast majority of products created in the ETF world are single-manager products, and single-manager products on a standalone basis don't have a role in the asset allocation model." ~ Andrew Beer

Links 

Andrew Beer on LinkedIn

Andrew Beer on Twitter

Dynamic Beta investments


Tomorrow 

Kristof Gleich

Harbor Capital

The Baupost Group

Kathryn Kaminski

AlphaSimplex Group

Abbey Capital

Stanley Druckenmiller

Corey Stein

Flirting with Models

Brian Portnoy

The Rational Optimist

iMGP Funds


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Rusty Vanneman

Robyn Murray


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2004-OPS-10/25/2022

Uncertainty and volatility are increasingly the new normal in today's investment markets. This has led many investors to seek out new asset classes that are not only stable and generate attractive returns but are also backed by structural growth trends. One asset class that meets these criteria is infrastructure. 
In this episode, Rusty and Robyn talk with Ken Baumgartner, Investment Director at Wellington Management. In his role, Ken provides business management and strategic oversight for asset allocation, inflation hedging solutions, and strategic solutions for multi-manager platforms. He works closely with portfolio managers to evaluate and communicate portfolio characteristics, performance, and market outlook to external constituents. 
Known for his expertise in inflation hedging, Ken talks with Rusty and Robyn about infrastructure as an asset class, the biggest themes in the infrastructure market today, and how infrastructure can help hedge inflation.

Key Takeaways

[02:45] - How Ken got into financial services.

[04:49] - What makes Wellington Management unique.

[06:47] - How infrastructure can help hedge inflation.

[08:46] - Infrastructure as an asset class.

[11:34] - What makes public infrastructure different from private infrastructure.

[13:38] - The biggest themes in the infrastructure space today.

[15:41] - Why electric utilities may be key to the energy transition.

[17:34] - Risks associated with lower volatility asset classes.

[19:13] - What impact has the boom in commodities had on Wellington's outlook on energy?

[23:21] - The impact of midterm elections on infrastructure.

[24:27] - How Ken maintains his mental and physical well-being to perform at a high level.

[25:54] - Ken's content recommendation.


Quotes
[07:55] - "Compared to potentially other higher beta volatile asset classes, such as natural resource equities or commodities, the performance of the infrastructure profile will be much more stable." ~ Ken Baumgartner
[13:47] - "One of the biggest themes across global markets is the idea of decarbonization. Here you have a multi-decade secular growth in both the transmission and the renewable space. And the best way to invest is through the regulated utilities that own the wires and the transmission and are also investing in renewables to bring their power production footprint." ~ Ken Baumgartner
[16:45] - "Carbon should not necessarily be thought of as dirty. People are too quick to cast aside some of these companies that today might still have some carbon in their power production stack but are doing more for the world to decarbonize than any of the cleanest and greenest." ~ Ken Baumgartner

Links 

Ken Baumgartner on LinkedIn

Wellington Management

Mr. Brightside by The Killers

Everlong by Foo Fighters

T.N.T. by AC/DC

Goldman Sachs

New York Islanders

Harvard Business School

John Hancock Investment Management

Podcasts - Freakonomics


WellSaid - The Wellington Management Podcast 

The Outsiders: Eight Unconventional CEOs and Their Radically Rational Blueprint for Success


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Rusty Vanneman

Robyn Murray


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2003-OPS-10/25/2022

There is nothing more frustrating for an advisor than losing a client. It's even more difficult when high-net-worth clients leave. High-net-worth clients are an important segment for any financial advisor. Not only do they bring in more revenue, but they also refer other high-net-worth individuals to the firm. What can advisors do to ensure they don't lose their best clients?
In this episode, Rusty and Robyn talk with Brett Van Bortel, Director of Consulting Services at Invesco Consulting. Brett has developed and delivered numerous consulting programs to increase financial professionals' profitability, effectiveness, and productivity. At Invesco Consulting, Brett develops and delivers business development models to assist advisors in distributing investment management products.
As a consultant, Brett talks with Rusty and Robyn about some tips and tricks for maintaining client relationships, why high-net-worth clients leave their advisors, and what advisors can do to prevent losing top clients.

Key Takeaways

[02:42] - What led Brett to a career in consulting services.

[03:48] - The key role Brett plays at Invesco.

[04:58] - How The Golden Hour program got its name.

[06:37] - How The Golden Hour applies to business and practice.

[07:33] - Why Invesco conducts its own research.

[10:55] - Why high-net-worth clients leave their advisors.

[14:22] - How Brett solves the problem of clients leaving their advisors.

[16:51] - What advisors can do to avoid losing top clients.

[19:05] - How much communication is needed to protect client relationships.

[22:12] - The findings of a dial session study on advisor-client communication.

 [24:14] - A proactive communication strategy to build stronger client relationships.

[28:16] - How advisors can implement relationship equity conversations.

[33:29] - Brett's personal investment strategy.

[34:27] - How Brett keeps his mental and physical health to perform at his best.

[36:03] - The book Brett recommends reading.


Quotes
[05:31] - "What we saw in our research was a ticking time bomb inside the majority of advisors' practices. A significant number of top clients began to look for the exit sign from an advisor's practice." ~ Brett Van Bortel
[06:45] - "Getting high-net-worth clients, typically the top clients for any advisor, is one of the greatest challenges. And there are a lot of programs out there on new client acquisition, but no one was looking at the other side of the coin of new client acquisition, which is top client retention. They're on a treadmill running fast but not getting anywhere." ~ Brett Van Bortel
[11:21] - "The vast majority of top clients weren't leaving because of performance. They were leaving because of something to do with a breakdown in the relationship and communication with their advisor." ~ Brett Van Bortel

Links 

Brett Van Bortel on LinkedIn

Invesco

Enter Sandman by Metallica

Michael Maslansky

Priceless Program Overview | Invesco US

Giftology: The Art and Science of Using Gift to Cut Through the Noise, Increase Referrals, and Strengthen Retention


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1930-OPS-10/13/2022