57 episodes

A podcast about the business and market of semiconductors

The Circuit Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg

    • Technology
    • 5.0 • 19 Ratings

A podcast about the business and market of semiconductors

    IFS Connect Takeaways | Nvidia Earnings as the New Semiconductor King

    IFS Connect Takeaways | Nvidia Earnings as the New Semiconductor King

    Summary
    This episode of The Circuit discusses the recent Intel Foundry event and Nvidia's earnings. The conversation explores Intel's focus on becoming a leading foundry and its bet on advanced packaging. The hosts also discuss concerns about Intel's culture and execution, as well as the response from TSMC. The episode concludes with predictions about the future of the market and the role of Intel in the industry. In this conversation, Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin discuss the future of TSMC and Apple, Intel's commitment to Apple and chiplets, the push towards chiplets in PCs, Intel's relationship with TSMC, NVIDIA's clean quarter, retail interest in NVIDIA stock, the investor relations dilemma for NVIDIA, NVIDIA's product cadence and long-term expectations, and the inference market and competition.
    Takeaways
    Intel is positioning itself as a leading foundry for complex systems of chips in the AI era.The success of Intel's foundry strategy will depend on its ability to deliver on technical innovation and overcome cultural challenges.TSMC remains a strong competitor in the market and has credibility in technical innovation.The customer dynamics and relationships with major wafer scale customers will play a crucial role in Intel's success as a foundry.The future of the market will likely involve a shift towards advanced packaging and chiplet designs. TSMC's future success depends on targeting a big volume platform like IFS in 2027.Intel's commitment to Apple may hinder their adoption and advancement of chiplets.PC CPU makers are under pressure to move towards chiplets, which may influence Apple's architecture decisions.NVIDIA's clean quarter and moderate beat and raise had a fairly moderate reaction in the stock market.NVIDIA's stock is heavily influenced by retail investors, which can lead to unpredictable swings.NVIDIA's product cadence and performance improvements, as well as supply chain constraints, are concerns for meeting revenue expectations.NVIDIA's long-term expectations and communication about the total addressable market may create heightened investor expectations.The inference market is still in early days, and competition is increasing.NVIDIA's software ties and workload advantage may give them an edge in the inference market.

    • 49 min
    Episode 55: Intel IFS Economics and Last Fabs Standing

    Episode 55: Intel IFS Economics and Last Fabs Standing

    Summary
    In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the puzzle of Intel foundries and the challenges of determining their revenue. They explore historical economics data points and the exit zone for leading-edge fabs. They analyze the revenue and financial projections for Intel Foundry Services (IFS) and the need for external customers. They also discuss the long-term outlook for IFS and potential scenarios for the future, including strategic partnerships and acquisitions. The episode concludes with the understanding that IFS will require a long-term timeframe and significant investment to become a competitive foundry.
    Takeaways
    Determining the revenue of Intel foundries is a challenging puzzle due to the lack of access to data and cost information.Historical economics data points provide insights into the exit zone for leading-edge fabs and the challenges faced by companies in staying competitive.IFS revenue projections indicate the need for external customers to fund the investment in leading-edge fabs.The long-term outlook for IFS suggests that it will take time and significant investment to become a competitive foundry.Strategic partnerships and acquisitions may play a role in the future of IFS and the semiconductor industry.

    • 40 min
    Episode 53: Supply Chain Demand Help and Dueling Mega Cycles

    Episode 53: Supply Chain Demand Help and Dueling Mega Cycles

    Summary
    The conversation discusses Sam Altman's plan to raise $7 trillion for semiconductors and the potential challenges and motivations behind it. It explores the idea of negotiation and leaked stories as part of the process. The conversation also delves into the simultaneous demand for compute in both hardware and software industries and the need for breakthroughs in technology. It highlights the importance of economic efficiency and competitiveness in the semiconductor industry. The conversation concludes by mentioning upcoming events and guests.
    Takeaways
    Sam Altman's plan to raise $7 trillion for semiconductors has sparked discussions about the challenges and motivations behind such a massive fundraising effort.Negotiation and leaked stories may be part of the process as companies navigate the complexities of the semiconductor industry.The simultaneous demand for compute in both hardware and software industries is creating constraints and slowing down innovation.Economic efficiency and competitiveness are crucial factors in the semiconductor industry, and companies need to balance supply and demand.The industry may benefit from breakthroughs in technology and the commercialization of new processes and products.

    • 38 min
    Episode 52: AI and Outsized Expectations

    Episode 52: AI and Outsized Expectations

    Summary
    In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the outsized expectations for AI growth and the impact on stock market reactions. They explore the challenges of modeling AI growth and the difficulty of charging more for AI features. They also discuss the potential for AI to accelerate refreshment cycles and the importance of realistic expectations. The conversation highlights the small gains of AI in software and the experimentation stage of AI. They conclude by emphasizing the need to measure expectations and be reasonable in the AI industry.
    Takeaways
    Outsized AI expectations have led to negative stock market reactions, as companies have not met ambitious growth models.Modeling AI growth is challenging due to variables such as product availability and demand.Charging more for AI features is difficult, as customers may not be willing to pay a premium.AI may not accelerate refreshment cycles, as the average consumer may not see significant improvements that warrant more frequent upgrades.The gains from AI are often small and incremental, but still important in improving efficiency and productivity.

    • 41 min
    Episode 51: Intel Earnings and Foundry Trends

    Episode 51: Intel Earnings and Foundry Trends

    Summary
    In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss Intel's recent earnings call and the challenges the company is facing. They analyze the guidance provided by Intel and the concerns raised by investors. The conversation also delves into Intel's core businesses, including the consumer and data center groups, and the impact of competition from companies like Nvidia. The hosts explore Intel's partnership with UMC to increase trailing edge capacity and the potential for specialized trailing edge processes. They conclude by highlighting the need for Intel to prove itself in the coming quarters and address ongoing challenges.
    Takeaways
    Intel's Q4 earnings call and guidance were a source of concern for investors, leading to a sell-off.The company's core businesses, particularly the data center group, face challenges and increased competition.Intel's partnership with UMC to increase trailing edge capacity signals a focus on specialized processes.The company needs to prove itself in the coming quarters and address ongoing challenges to regain investor confidence.

    • 37 min
    Episode 50: TSMC Earnings Set Stage for 2024

    Episode 50: TSMC Earnings Set Stage for 2024

    Summary
    In this conversation, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the latest news and trends in the semiconductor industry, with a focus on TSMC's strong earnings and growth forecast. They explore the importance of AI in TSMC's business and the strong position of NVIDIA in the AI market. They also discuss the challenges of designing AI-first silicon and the need for differentiation in AI accelerators. The conversation touches on the dynamics of leading-edge manufacturing, the transition from financial objectives to innovation in semiconductors, and the significance of Supermicro's pre-announcement. They conclude by emphasizing the importance of delivering on promises and providing predictable guidance in the industry.
    Takeaways
    TSMC's strong earnings and growth forecast indicate a healthy year for the semiconductor industry, driven by demand for AI and leading-edge manufacturing.NVIDIA is well-positioned in the AI market, with strong engagement from AI leaders and a focus on AI-specific processors.The challenges of designing AI-first silicon and the lack of re-architecting for AI in most designs highlight the need for innovation in the industry.The transition from financial objectives to innovation and R&D is crucial for semiconductor companies to stay competitive.The temptation to talk about AI without substance and the importance of delivering on promises and providing predictable guidance are key considerations for companies in the industry.

    • 37 min

Customer Reviews

5.0 out of 5
19 Ratings

19 Ratings

Joebagofdonuts ,

Informative and Attractive

Thank you so much for creating these podcasts. I have learned a lot about the chip industry. As learn more, I am more open to investing. If I may, you both have very handsome voices. Do you accessorize? Have you ever considered a clever hat or snappy suspenders? Both can be exhilarating! Keep up the great work!

y is ever nickname taken ,

Great for us new guys

I’ve been looking for a podcast to build my knowledge on the industry as I’m one of the newer recruits. The podcasts are easy to follow and packed with information, I would love to see more back to the basics episodes!

C35hanssolo ,

Truly valuable and easy to digest

Thanks for such a good podcast…not with wild takes but measured, balanced views that are followed up with simple explanations and arguments

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