Excess Returns

Excess Returns
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

  1. HÁ 12 MIN.

    31 Years of Lessons: Northwestern Mutual CIO Brent Schutte on Markets, Cycles, and Diversification

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Brent Schutte, CIO of Northwestern Mutual, to discuss the current macro landscape and what it means for investors. Brent shares his balanced perspective on the Fed, inflation, tariffs, concentration risk in markets, and why diversification may be more important now than ever. With over 30 years of investing experience, Brent provides valuable lessons from past cycles that help put today’s environment in context. The Fed’s dual mandate and why both inflation and unemployment risks matter How tariffs could reshape growth and inflation dynamics Market concentration and the dominance of the Magnificent Seven Lessons from past cycles (1999 tech bubble, 2007 commodities, Japan in the 1980s) The role of diversification, including small/mid caps, international equities, and commodities Active vs. passive investing and how to evaluate managers Recession signals, rolling recessions, and hidden economic weakness Why humility and balance are essential in portfolio construction 00:00 – Introduction & importance of diversification 02:00 – The Fed’s mandate and tariffs’ impact on growth & inflation 07:30 – Reaction to Powell’s Jackson Hole speech & Fed independence 15:20 – Hidden recession, labor market signals & AI’s economic role 20:30 – Reliability of recession indicators post-COVID 26:00 – Tariffs, uncertainty & risks for investors 28:40 – Market concentration and the Magnificent Seven 34:00 – Rethinking diversification: 60/40, commodities, and international exposure 41:20 – Lessons from past market cycles (Japan, dot-com, China, commodities) 45:15 – Passive flows, active management, and evaluating skill vs. luck 50:00 – Government stakes in companies (Intel discussion) 52:00 – Standard closing questions & final lessons

    58min

  2. HÁ 2 DIAS

    The Hidden Risks of High Income Options Strategies | Shawn Gibson and Eric McArdle

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Shawn Gibson and Eric McArdle of Liquid Strategies to explore the rapidly growing world of option-based ETF strategies. With the rise of covered calls, buffered products, and hedged equity funds, it’s more important than ever for investors to separate smart solutions from risky marketing gimmicks. Shawn and Eric break down how their firm approaches overlays, income generation, and downside protection in a way that helps advisors and investors achieve better long-term outcomes. The evolution of options in ETFs and why adoption has accelerated Common flaws in covered call strategies and the risks investors miss How Liquid Strategies uses option overlays to add return, income, and downside protection The “Swiss Army knife” approach to using put spreads for multiple portfolio goals The importance of timeframe in option strategies and the debate around 0DTE Why “high yield” products often just return investor capital Using options for true risk management and hedging vs. cosmetic protection How Liquid Strategies structures its ETF suite and interval funds Where hedged equity and bond overlays can serve as ballast in portfolios Standard closing lessons for investors on staying invested and balancing risk 00:01 – Introduction to Liquid Strategies and option-based ETFs 02:34 – The rise of options in portfolios and industry evolution 05:29 – Flaws in common options strategies 08:19 – Covered calls: why they often disappoint 12:00 – Balancing upside, downside, and income in overlays 15:31 – What overlay strategies really mean 20:19 – The “Swiss Army knife” of selling put spreads 24:09 – Why timeframe matters and 0DTE options debate 28:56 – How rates and volatility impact option overlays 32:59 – The importance of systematic but flexible processes 36:46 – High yield traps and returning investor capital 43:04 – Using options for hedging and risk management 46:47 – How advisors incorporate overlays into portfolios 48:54 – ETFs vs. interval funds explained 54:26 – Where overlays fit in today’s asset allocation 57:55 – Closing lessons for investors

    1h2min

  3. HÁ 2 DIAS

    Jim Paulsen on Growth, the Fed and the Case for a Broadening Rally

    In this episode, Jim Paulsen of Paulsen Perspectives joins us to break down the state of the economy, the Fed’s policy stance, inflation risks, and what’s really happening beneath the surface of the stock market. Jim explains why the headline numbers often mask the struggles of many companies, why the S&P 500 looks stretched while much of the market remains undervalued, and what investors should watch as we head into the fall. Weak GDP growth, jobs slowdown, and why the U.S. may avoid recession despite sluggish data How fiscal policy, tariffs, the dollar, and monetary policy are shaping growth Why corporate profits outside the S&P 500 remain below trend despite large-cap strength The Fed’s inflation obsession, the 2% target debate, and Jackson Hole policy shifts Jim’s case that inflation fears are overblown, with supporting data on CPI, PPI, wages, and expectations Historical supports for bull markets (liquidity, interest rates, dollar, confidence) and why they’ve been missing Divergence between S&P 500 valuations vs. the rest of the market Structural disconnect between small/mid-caps and large-cap earnings The opportunity for market broadening if the Fed eases policy What Jim will be watching heading into year-end 00:00 – Economic growth slowdown and risks of recession02:00 – Policy backdrop: fiscal, monetary, dollar, and tariffs07:00 – Why recession may still be avoided15:00 – Powell, Jackson Hole, and the Fed’s inflation stance24:00 – Are inflation fears overblown?36:00 – Inflation surprise index and momentum37:00 – What supports bull markets (liquidity, rates, dollar, confidence)41:00 – Trendline analysis: S&P vs. broader market47:00 – Russell 2000 earnings vs. S&P 500 divergence52:00 – Corporate profits divergence and policy implications59:00 – What Jim is watching heading into year-end

    1h2min

  4. HÁ 5 DIAS

    Mike Philbrick on Gold, Bitcoin, and Rethinking Diversification Beyond 60/40

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Mike Philbrick of Resolve Asset Management to discuss why the traditional 60/40 portfolio may no longer be enough, the role of “psychological commodities” like gold and Bitcoin, and how return stacking can change the way investors think about diversification. Mike shares insights on macro regimes, investor psychology, and why these once-fringe assets may now be foundational in building resilient portfolios. Topics Covered: Why the 1982–2020 period was a “golden era” for stocks and bonds How today’s macro regime challenges traditional diversification The case for gold and Bitcoin as portfolio diversifiers Debt, inflation, and the shifting role of scarce assets Why lack of cash flows is a feature, not a bug, for gold & Bitcoin Generational differences in crypto adoption and advisor psychology How return stacking works and why it matters for investors The evolving regulatory and institutional landscape for Bitcoin Risks: existential threats, quantum computing, policy changes Tokenization, blockchain innovation, and the future of finance Mike’s one lesson for the average investor Timestamps: 00:00 – Why the 1982–2020 period was a golden era 03:00 – Stocks, bonds, and changing correlations 07:00 – Debt, inflation, and the macro backdrop 10:00 – Gold, Bitcoin, and the cash flow debate 14:20 – Why investors resist gold & Bitcoin 19:00 – Generational divides and adoption rates 23:00 – The evolution of gold and parallels to Bitcoin 26:30 – What is Bitcoin? Digital gold vs growth asset 28:30 – Career risk flipping: from owning to not owning 32:00 – Behavioral biases and implementation frictions 35:00 – Sizing matters: avoiding “all or nothing” mistakes 36:00 – Market-cap weights and neutral allocations 38:00 – Long-term real returns of gold & Bitcoin 40:00 – Will Bitcoin and gold compete or complement? 43:00 – Portfolio construction: risk-weighting gold & Bitcoin 44:00 – Return stacking explained 49:00 – Trend following and dead money periods 51:00 – Risks: quantum computing, regulation, behavior 56:00 – Tokenization, blockchain rails, and innovation 1:01:13 – Mike’s one lesson for the average investor

    1h4min

  5. 23 DE AGO.

    An Inside Look at Buffer ETFs with Jeff Chang

    Defined outcome ETFs have exploded in popularity, offering investors a way to combine downside protection with upside participation. In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Jeff Chang of Vest Financial to break down the mechanics of buffer ETFs, how they fit into portfolios, the critiques they face, and where this space is headed. Jeff shares the origin story of Vest, the innovations that made these strategies accessible and how Buffer ETFs work behind the scenes. The origin of Vest and the impact of the Lehman collapse on product design How buffer ETFs work and why they focus on the “first 10–15%” of drawdowns The behavioral finance angle: making hedging simple and accessible Why 2022 highlighted the weaknesses of traditional 60/40 portfolios The mechanics of buffer ETFs: options structures and resets Popular buffer levels and how investors are using them Addressing critiques: costs, beta instability, and comparisons to cash or commodities The scalability of these strategies and potential market impact Behavioral vs. quantitative advantages of defined outcome funds Future developments, including applications to crypto and higher-volatility assets Jeff’s lessons on investing, risk management, and staying invested 00:00 – Introduction and the growth of defined outcome strategies 02:00 – The genesis of Vest Financial after Lehman’s collapse 09:00 – Explaining buffer ETFs in simple terms 14:00 – Who uses these strategies and why 2022 was a turning point 18:00 – Mechanics of resets and protection at market highs 22:00 – Range of buffers, caps, and investor demand 27:00 – The options structures behind buffer ETFs 30:00 – Liquidity, scalability, and market impact considerations 34:00 – How investors are using buffers in portfolios 38:00 – Tax efficiency inside the ETF wrapper 39:00 – Addressing critiques: cash, commodities, and costs 47:00 – Are these strategies more behavioral or quantitative? 48:30 – The future of buffer strategies and expansion into crypto 53:00 – Jeff’s contrarian investing belief 54:00 – The one lesson Jeff would teach every investor

    54min

  6. 21 DE AGO.

    Record Valuations. Hidden Opportunity | Tobias Carlisle on Finding Value in an Expensive Market

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Tobias Carlisle — author, host of Value After Hours, and manager of the Acquirers Funds. Toby shares his candid perspective on market valuations, value investing’s long struggle, and why he still believes mean reversion will eventually swing back in favor of small caps and value stocks. We also dive into AI, global markets, the Fed, housing, and where investors might find opportunity outside today’s expensive U.S. mega-caps. Market valuations: why today’s market may be more expensive than 1929, 2000, or 2020 The pitfalls of relying on single-year P/E ratios and better long-term valuation measures The divergence between the “Magnificent 10” and the rest of the market Small caps, mid caps, and value: where Toby sees opportunity despite an earnings recession AI as both a transformative force and a potential bubble-like capital cycle U.S. vs. international markets: structural advantages of American capitalism and where China is catching up The Fed, interest rates, inflation, and how they really matter for value investors Housing affordability and demographics as headwinds for the U.S. economy Why Toby believes the “value vs. growth jaws” will eventually close 00:00 – Are markets more expensive than 1929 and 2000? 04:00 – Breaking down valuation charts: S&P, Russell, and mid/small caps 10:00 – Why single-year P/Es mislead investors 14:00 – Lessons from past bubbles: Nifty 50, dot-com era, and now 19:00 – Large vs. small: the longest run for growth in history 24:00 – AI’s impact: transformative technology or capital cycle trap? 32:00 – Toby’s personal experience with AI (and why it disappoints him so far) 33:00 – U.S. advantages vs. international markets and China’s rise 41:00 – Are today’s U.S. valuations justified? 45:00 – The Fed, interest rates, and speculation 46:00 – Housing affordability and demographics as headwinds 55:00 – Should value investors care about macro? 59:00 – Closing question: Toby’s contrarian belief on value vs. growth

    1h2min

  7. 19 DE AGO.

    Momentum is Everything | Leigh Drogen on Building Lasting Strategies in Crypto

    In this episode, we sit down with Leigh Drogen of StarKiller Capital, alongside guest co-host Kai Wu, for a deep dive into crypto investing strategies, momentum in digital assets, and market-neutral DeFi yield opportunities. Leigh shares his perspective on where we are in the crypto evolution, the parallels with past technology cycles, and how to survive and advance in one of the most volatile asset classes in the world. From time-series and cross-sectional momentum to the economics of yield farming, this is a comprehensive look at building systematic strategies in digital assets. Topics Covered: The parallels between Web1 → Web2 and today’s crypto transition Why the “fat protocol” thesis is giving way to the “fat app” era The role of Bitcoin vs. Ethereum in the next stage of crypto adoption The “survive and advance” investing philosophy Time-series momentum and cross-sectional momentum in crypto How VC behavior is changing momentum dynamics Sector-level momentum and narrowing lookback periods StarKiller’s approach to asset selection and quality screens Building a market-neutral DeFi yield strategy Bootstrapping network effects and early liquidity provisioning Diligence, counterparty risk, and managing protocol risk The competitive landscape and where the biggest edges remain in crypto Timestamps: 00:00 – Crypto’s infrastructure milestones and evolution 02:53 – The “fat protocol” vs. “fat app” thesis 08:09 – Bitcoin’s role vs. Ethereum’s potential 14:20 – “Survive and advance” and limiting drawdowns 19:20 – Time-series vs. cross-sectional momentum 23:00 – VC selling behavior and regime change in momentum 31:47 – Sector-level momentum trends 36:13 – Shorter lookback periods and market speed 39:56 – StarKiller’s investable universe and filtering process 48:00 – Designing a market-neutral DeFi yield strategy 52:56 – Rewards farming and bootstrapping network effects 58:00 – Market-making vaults and APR opportunities 01:00:10 – Managing counterparty and protocol risk 01:04:02 – Has crypto alpha become more competitive? 01:07:41 – One lesson for the average investor

    1h9min

  8. 16 DE AGO.

    Show Us Your Portfolio: Aswath Damodaran

    How Aswath Damodaran Manages His Own Portfolio | Show Us Your Portfolio In this episode of our Show Us Your Portfolio series, we go inside the personal investing approach of Aswath Damodaran — the “Dean of Valuation.” Known for his expertise in corporate valuation, Aswath rarely discusses how he manages his own money. We cover his philosophy, asset allocation, position sizing rules, lifecycle diversification, and the lessons he’s learned from decades of investing his own wealth. What you’ll learn in this episode: The core mission that drives Aswath’s investing decisions How he thinks about risk, concentration, and position sizing Why he avoids bonds and focuses on equity appreciation His approach to strategic vs. tactical investing The role of lifecycle diversification in portfolio construction How he decides when to buy and sell individual stocks Why luck plays such a big role in investing results His views on international exposure, dividends, gold, crypto, and alternative assets Personal spending habits and what he values most outside of investing Timestamps: 00:00 – Investing’s end game: preserve and grow wealth 03:25 – How life stage changes investment approach 07:41 – Thoughts on the 60/40 portfolio 08:47 – Why he holds no bonds 10:12 – The power of compounding 12:25 – Separating portfolio from income needs 15:02 – Strategic vs. tactical investing 18:00 – Managing concentration risk and trimming winners 20:30 – Market concentration & the Mag 7 25:31 – How he buys and sells stocks 32:46 – Hit rate and lessons from decades of investing 37:26 – Lifecycle diversification 41:00 – U.S. vs. international investing 43:22 – Dividend investing 45:35 – Gold, crypto, and alternative assets 53:15 – What he drives and his ESG take 54:39 – Spending for joy 56:00 – Key investing advice for individuals 57:37 – Life outside markets & creative thinking time

    1h1min
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Sobre

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

Informações

  • Criado por
    Excess Returns
  • Anos de atividade
    2019 - 2025
  • Episódios
    371
  • Classificação
    Livre
  • Copyright
    © 905628
  • Site do podcast
    Excess Returns

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