What Is Congress’ Role in a Contingent Presidential Election? (with John Fortier)

The topic of this episode is, "what is Congress' role in a contingent presidential election?"

Two centuries ago, America had a contingent presidential election. No candidate got a majority of votes, and thus it fell to Congress to decide who got to be president. Might the United States have another contingent election? Certainly it is possible. Four of the past six presidential elections have been very close. In 2020, had 44,000 voters in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin picked Trump instead of Biden we would have had a tied election, with each candidate receiving 269 electoral votes.

So what is Congress’s role in a contingent election? How does that work? To answer these questions I have with me my colleague, Dr. John Fortier. He is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he studies Congress and elections, election administration, election demographics, voting, and more. John is the coauthor of the books After the People Vote: A Guide to the Electoral College (AEI Press, 2020) and Absentee and Early Voting: Trends, Promises, and Perils (AEI Press, 2006). John also hosts The Voting Booth podcast.

Kevin Kosar:

Welcome to Understanding Congress, a podcast about the first branch of government. Congress is a notoriously complex institution, and few Americans think well of it. But Congress is essential to our republic. It is a place where our pluralistic society is supposed to work out its differences and come to agreement about what our laws should be.

And that is why we are here: to discuss our national legislature and to think about ways to upgrade it so it can better serve our nation. I am your host, Kevin Kosar, and I’m a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank in Washington DC.

John, welcome to the podcast.

John Fortier:

Thank you, Kevin. Pleasure to be here.

Kevin Kosar:

Let's start with a simple question. Why must a presidential candidate get 270 electoral votes in order to become the president?

John Fortier:

There's a short answer and a long answer. The short answer is that 270 is a majority of the electors that are possible to be cast.

The longer answer is that there was a debate in the Constitutional Convention about how to elect the president, but it came sort of late in the process. And I would say the first thing that they needed to decide is what did Congress look like? And there were all sorts of debates and back and forth before a compromise was reached where essentially the House of Representatives was one that represented the people more broadly. The states would have a number of House representatives based on their population and the Senate would be equal in the states.

Now when coming to the Electoral College—figuring out how to elect the president—there were two big principles. One, they had decided at this point that they wanted the president to be elected separately from the Congress. Not like a parliamentary system, not something coming out of the Congress. And secondly, that they were going to reflect that compromise in Congress.

And so, the real number of 270, or the larger number of electors that are available, are basically all of the states have two electors for the senators that they have. And then they have a certain number of electors in the House of Representatives based on their, their House delegation and also D.C. votes. That's what gets you the total, but it is something of a compromise coming out of a compromise, and this is a majority of the votes that you need.

Kevin Kosar:

So it's a constitutional thing, it's not a statutory thing.

Let’s imagine a scenario for the sake of illustrating the process: pretend it is mid-November of 2024, and we have Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump tied at 269 electoral votes each, or, that they each got fewer than 270 votes thanks to a third-party candidate garnering a handful of electoral votes. What happens next?

John Fortier:

You're right to point to two scenarios. One would be that there's a tie in the Electoral College, and in today's numbers that would be 269 to 269. Therefore, no one has a majority or perhaps there's a third party candidate who takes enough electors so that neither of the of the candidates gets to 270. Those are the types of situations which, down the road, are going to get you to a contingent election: one that doesn't go the regular way of counting the electors.

Now, in the meantime, there are steps. The first, of course, is the casting of candidates. The votes by the electors themselves. We the people vote in November, but we are ultimately electing these electors. They are going to their state capitals in each of the 50 states in the District of Columbia, and they are casting ballots in mid-December. Those ballots are ultimately then sent on to Congress and are then going to be counted on January 6. This is typically a very simple process where votes are counted and in almost every case other than two in our history someone has had a majority of the electoral votes. If that is the case on January 6, we have an official president-elect. That person is going to take office on January 20. We similarly do the same thing with the vice presidential votes from the electors for the vice president.

But if no one person gets 270 electoral votes, then we go into what is sometimes labeled a contingent election. And if all is clear, the House of Representatives will immediately convene to vote for a president, but they'll do so in an untraditional way. They'll essentially be voting by state delegation. Each state has one vote and then each state delegation, which could be made up of a bunch of people are somehow going to have to cast that ballot.

Another interesting thing to note—I think that's important—is you do need to get a majority of states, not just a plurality. You need 26 of the 50 state delegations in the contingent election to elect a president. And there are a number of ways in which you might not get that. One possibility is if there are three candidates, another way is that we might have some delegations that are split and that wouldn't count to the total—assuming both those people voted according to party. And you might have a case where somebody has 25 delegations, somebody has 23, and two delegations are split. That's not enough to elect the president, so there's a potential for a deadlock here, and you don't necessarily easily get to the 26.

One more thing lurking in the background, of course, is if for some reason that election is deadlocked or doesn't get to a conclusion, the vice president might be facing the same issue, where the vice president does not have a majority of the electoral votes. In that case, the Senate convenes and votes, but you need to get a majority of the senators to ultimately elect a vice president. Perhaps that might not happen either, but it is more likely that it will not divide in the same way.

You could either have a vice president who's elected, no president, and get to January 20th and have that vice president take over. It is possible that both of the contingent elections are held up, in which case we'd go all the way to January 20th, and then we'd have to go down the line of succession, meaning the Speaker of the House in today's line would become president.

So it's a complicated process, but there is a role for Congress, the House voting very differently than it typically does, and the Senate voting for the vice presidential candidate if there's no majority for either of these in the case of electing the vice president.

Kevin Kosar:

As a follow up, we have the House having to vote for the president, the Senate having to vote for the vice president. Imagine in the House, we have a state that has 10 representatives—six of them prefer Mr. Trump, four of them prefer Mr. Biden. Does their state then get counted towards the presidential total, or do they have to be unanimous? Do we know?

John Fortier:

This would be likely only the case where there are three presidential candidates who are being considered. With the 12th Amendment, the House can only consider the top three candidates. They can't consider anybody else. That was important in 1824 when there was fourth major political candidate who couldn't be considered.

So, if there were a state that had nine reps and it was four to three to two, the House is at times believed that maybe the four would prevail, but we're not absolutely sure about that. So the House might have a role. I'll leave it at that.

Kevin Kosar:

You've already indicated that we could end up in a peculiar situation where if the House can't come to agreement, the Senate could—in theory—come to an agreement about who gets to be the vice president. Would that vice president succeed? Would he become the president come January 20th?

John Fortier:

Yes, a couple things. First, we could go back to the 1800 election, one of two elections (1800 and 1824) where we did have this contingent election.

In 1800, the Electoral College looked a little different. We hadn't passed