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4d ago

WTH Is Going On (Again) With the Ceasefire in Iran? Nicholas Carl Explains.

Donald Trump's on again off again deal making with the Iranians has hit another flashpoint this week as exchanges of fire on commercial shipping and US military bases in the region stymied negotiations before their 60 day deadline. Although large-scale combat has subsided, the conflict between the United States and Iran is far from over. Nick Carl argues that Tehran has emerged from the war with a new strategic objective: establishing de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz and using it as a tool of coercion against the international community after its traditional sources of deterrence fell short. He also examines the regime's evolving leadership following Ali Khamenei's death, the continued discontent between Iran's rulers and its people, and why Tehran believes it can outlast the United States politically despite suffering major military setbacks. While conventional wisdom suggests Iranian weakness (as discussed in our many conversations with General Jack Keane), Tehran is nonetheless negotiating from a position of confidence. Will the United States remain committed to denying Iran control of the Strait? Can diplomacy succeed without rewarding Iranian aggression? And ultimately, who has the greater will to persist? Will President Trump accept a bad agreement or abandon his deal making desires in pursuit of a more decisive outcome? Nicholas Carl is the Assistant Director for the Critical Threats Project and a Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he specializes in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Mr. Carl is the author of reports, analyses, and maps covering Iran’s regional strategy and nuclear program, military structure, and politics. His commentary and maps have been featured in a variety of media outlets, including The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, and Financial Times. Read the transcript here. Subscribe to our Substack here.
Jul 9

WTH: America's 250th! John Yoo on the Supreme Court in 2026.

As the United States celebrates the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, fundamental questions about the Constitution and the balance of power are once again at the center of American politics. John Yoo joins to examine the Supreme Court's landmark term, arguing that its recent decisions have restored presidential authority over the administrative state, clarified the constitutional limits of independent agencies, and reaffirmed birthright citizenship in the 14th amendment while leaving broader immigration policy in Congress's hands, as the Constitution intended. From executive power and the civil service to court packing, the filibuster, and the separation of powers, John explains whether the Court is actually reshaping American government and executive power or restoring an originalist vision of the Constitution. As calls to restructure the Court grow louder, are America's constitutional guardrails strong enough to withstand the political battles ahead? And once again, we ask if Congress will do its job in weighing its own responsibilities in the system of checks and balances? John Yoo is a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, the Emanuel S. Heller Professor of Law at the University of California, Berkeley, and a Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas at Austin. Professor Yoo has served in all three branches of government. He was an official in the U.S. Department of Justice, where he worked on national security and terrorism issues after the 9/11 attacks. He served as general counsel of the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee. He has been a law clerk for Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas and federal appeals Judge Laurence Silberman. Professor Yoo has published almost 100 scholarly articles on subjects including national security, constitutional law, international law, and the Supreme Court. He also regularly contributes to the editorial pages of The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, and National Review, among others. Professor Yoo’s latest book is The Politically Incorrect Guide to the Supreme Court. Read the transcript here. Subscribe to our Substack here.
Jul 2

WTH: Is Trump Right to Fear Global Depression? Economist Glenn Hubbard Debunks.

President Trump has publicly speculated that resuming military operations against Iran could trigger an economic catastrophe, warning of soaring gas prices and even a global depression. It is rumored that senior officials within the administration are driving this narrative in an effort to steer Trump away from finishing the conflict, as fears of Iranian long term impact on global oil markets appear to be exaggerated. Economist Glenn Hubbard argues that while energy markets and inflation deserve consideration, the role of economists is to analyze tradeoffs and identify ways to mitigate the economic costs of national security decisions; to inform policy, not determine it. On balance, he contends that the long-term costs of failed deterrence outweigh the short-term economic risks. So, as the administration weighs whether to return to combat or settle for an unacceptable status quo, is the greater economic and national security risk resuming the fight or leaving Iran's threats unresolved? And what price does America pay for failing to finish the job? Glenn Hubbard is a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where his work is focused on a wide range of economic issues including health care; poverty; public, corporate, and international finance; and financial markets and institutions. A former chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers at the White House, Dr. Hubbard concurrently serves as dean emeritus and Russell L. Carson Professor of Economics and Finance at Columbia Business School. He has also served as a deputy assistant secretary at the US Treasury Department and as a consultant to the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, among other positions. Read the transcript here. Subscribe to our Substack here.
Jun 23

WTH Is the State of the Iranian Nuclear Program? David Albright Explains.

Over the weekend, the United States signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran to begin negotiations on a nuclear deal. To understand what a good deal would entail, it is important to assess the status of Iran's nuclear weapons program following Operations Midnight Hammer and Epic Fury, as well as the timeline on which Tehran could produce a weapon despite these setbacks. David Albright argues that securing Tehran's admission of the program's existence and permitting on-the-ground IAEA inspections should be among the top priorities. A weak agreement lacking robust verification measures and proper extraction of nuclear materials could ultimately strengthen Iran, given the potential influx of fungible cash and the absence of sanctions that have allegedly circled discussions. In that case, is no deal better than a bad deal? What will it take to disarm the nuclear threat? David Albright is the founder and President of the non-profit Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, D.C. He has written numerous assessments on secret nuclear weapons programs throughout the world has authored or co-authored nine books and briefed policymakers on non-proliferation policy making. Albright cooperated with the IAEA Action Team analyzing Iraqi documents and was the first non-governmental inspector of the Iraqi nuclear program. Previously, Albright was a member of the Health Advisory Panel in his capacity as a physicist and was appointed to the Department of Energy Openness Advisory Panel. He is currently an American Physical Society (APS) Fellow and the 2006 recipient of the APS’s Joseph A. Burton Forum Award. Read the transcript here. Subscribe to our Substack here.
Jun 4

WTH Is Going On with Iran? General Jack Keane Explains.

We’re now in the eighth week of a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The Trump Administration is stuck in a holding pattern as Iranian negotiators continue to ignore US redlines and both sides insist on their own superior leverage. The unfortunate reality is that many in the Trump Administration are being fed a false calculus and discredit the ability of the US military to maintain the blockade, open the Strait, and destroy and extract nuclear material. To entertain such Iranian wishes as a billion-dollar reconstruction fund ignores the fact that CENTCOM Commander Bradley Cooper has confirmed: it would take 10-14 days to accomplish the full breadth of our military objectives in Iran. Yet, the Trump Administration is committed to making a deal, with Secretary Rubio echoing the same commitment to the negotiation seesaw. But Iran is an inherently bad faith actor. And it is using the upcoming midterms to its advantage. What now? How will we break the cycle? Thankfully we have General Jack Keane, who provides a clear-eyed strategy for victory against Iran. General Keane is widely recognized as one of America’s most respected authorities on foreign policy and national security. He is a retired four-star Army general, former Vice Chief of Staff of the Army having served our nation in uniform for 37 years. He is Fox News senior strategic analyst and is the chairman of the Institute for the Study of War. Read the transcript here. Subscribe to our Substack here.
Jun 18

WTH: Turning the Tide in Ukraine. George Barros Explains.

While the world’s attention has been fixed on the war in Iran, the battlefield in Ukraine has largely shifted in Kyiv’s favor. ISW’s George Barros joins us to explain how Ukrainian innovations in drone warfare, logistics, and battlefield technology have slowed Russia’s advance, increased Russian casualties, and created new opportunities for Ukrainian counterattacks. These developments are especially meaningful for future peace negotiations, as Russia’s strategy is showing signs of severe strain. Putin’s wartime claims and demands have become even more ridiculous as Ukraine strikes deeper into Russian territory. Ukraine’s wartime innovations are already helping protect American forces around the world as they reshape the future of warfare in real time. Free democracies like Ukraine tend to outpace their adversaries in innovation, and the United States should do more to friend-shore critical industries and pursue military industrial cooperation to our mutual benefit. George Barros is the Director of Innovation and Open Source Tradecraft at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), previously led ISW’s Russia Team and founded ISW GEOINT Team and has served as a policy advisor on Ukraine and Russia for a U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee member. His analyses and interviews have appeared in outlets including The Hill, Washington Post, BBC, Reuters, Voice of America, and more. Read the transcript here. Subscribe to our Substack here.
Apr 30

WTH: Is the Iran War Depleting Key Munitions? Mark Cancian and Chris Park Explain.

While we celebrate the US military's accomplishments over the first forty days of the Iran conflict, a less desirable outcome has been the significant expenditure of munitions and reallocation of critical resources to the region. In Last Rounds? Status of Key Munitions at the Iran War Ceasefire, Colonel (Ret.) Mark Cancian and associate Chris Park crunch the numbers on the seven most heavily used munitions. Rest assured, there's enough left to cover any scenario with Tehran, but a future conflict with China in the Western Pacific highlights inadequate Pentagon inventories. Much like Ukraine before it, this conflict exposes the fragility of America's defense industrial base, making urgent, creative solutions from what Cancian and Park call the "primordial soup of R&D" essential. So, is Washington finally ready to take that lesson seriously? Mark Cancian (Colonel, USMCR, ret.) is a senior adviser with the CSIS Defense and Security Department. He joined CSIS in April 2015 from the Office of Management and Budget, where he spent more than seven years as chief of the Force Structure and Investment Division, working on issues such as Department of Defense budget strategy, war funding, and procurement programs, as well as nuclear weapons development and nonproliferation activities in the Department of Energy. Previously, he worked on force structure and acquisition issues in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and ran research and executive programs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. Chris H. Park is a research associate for the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Read the transcript here. Read the report here. Subscribe to our Substack here.
Jun 12

WTH Is Trump Doing In Iran? Miad Maleki Explains.

In his relentless pursuit of a deal with Iran, Donald Trump has now returned to military escalation, resuming combat operations and warning that the United States will seize Iran’s key oil export hub on Kharg Island. This so-called moderate ceasefire signals a renewed campaign of punishing strikes on Iran until it agrees to terms set by the administration’s negotiating team. As Miad explains, however, Iran’s hardline is not the “leverage” Tehran believes it to be, because Iran ultimately must reopen the Strait of Hormuz for its own economic survival. But at this moment, Donald Trump has no viable partner for peace, and Iran will likely never offer such an option. As Marc and Dany point out, there is no Iranian Delcy Rodríguez, and these kinds of arrangements have expiration dates, particularly as 2028 approaches. As long as the sole measure of success in Iran is a negotiated deal, the Iranians hold the power to decide whether victory is possible. It is up to Trump to decide whether that's acceptable. Miad Maleki is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), former senior U.S. sanctions strategist and national security leader, and former associate director for the Treasury’s Office of Global Targeting at the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). Miad played a central role in marshalling the Treasury Department’s sanctions campaigns against the Iranian regime and its proxy groups: Hezbollah, Hamas, Iraqi Shiite militias, and the Houthis. He is also a U.S. Air Force Veteran. Read the transcript here. Subscribe to our Substack here.
Apr 23

WTH Is Going On In Lebanon? Ambassador David Hale Explains.

On the eve of talks in Washington between leaders in Lebanon and Israel, Beirut has signaled a push to extend the 10-day, U.S.-mediated ceasefire set to expire this Sunday. The ongoing conflict with Iran has put its proxies’ regional struggles into the limelight, as flashpoints continue to emerge, Lebanon chief among them. As a platform for Hezbollah, Lebanon is in a unique political position, balancing an adversary at home while aligning itself more closely with the West amid regional confrontation. Donald Trump has a historic opportunity to rid the Middle East of the Iranian regime if he is willing to commit to the persistence and patience needed to see this operation through. For Israel and Lebanon, is now the time? Ambassador David Hale is a Career Ambassador and Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow at the Middle East Institute. He also currently serves as a Distinguished Fellow with the Wilson Center. Ambassador Hale previously served as US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs; US Ambassador to Pakistan, Lebanon, and Jordan; and Special Envoy for Middle East Peace. He is the author of American Diplomacy Toward Lebanon: Lessons in Foreign Policy and the Middle East, published by Bloomsbury/I.B. Tauris in February 2024. Read the transcript here. Subscribe to our Substack here.
1d ago

The Latest on Chronic Absenteeism (with Nat Malkus)

During the pandemic, national chronic absenteeism rates surged across all demographics, but what has happened to chronic absenteeism rates since then? Are chronic absenteeism rates back to pre-pandemic levels? Is chronic absenteeism less of a problem for students who weren’t yet in school during the pandemic? And where might chronic absenteeism rates end up when all the dust settles? On this episode of The Report Card, Elli Lucas discusses these questions, and more, with Nat Malkus. Nat Malkus is a senior fellow and the deputy director of education policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and an affiliate of AEI’s James Q. Wilson Program in K–12 Education Studies. He is the creator of AEI’s Return to Learn Tracker, which tracked pandemic school closures and masking policies and currently tracks post-pandemic chronic absenteeism, and the host of the podcast The Report Card with Nat Malkus. This episode was produced by Elli Lucas. Show Notes: From Attendance Crisis to Chronic Condition? Tracking Post-Pandemic Chronic Absenteeism into 2025 Please Excuse My Child: Unexcused Absences in Student Attendance and Achievement Catching Absenteeism Early and Often: Introducing the AEI Absence Forecast AEI Absence Forecast What Stories Does Daily Attendance Tell? Student Attendance Patterns Before and After the COVID-19 Pandemic AEI’s Chronic Absenteeism Research Working Group (CARWG) Teacher and Student Absences Before and After the Pandemic The 50% Challenge

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